NEG NAO Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 Won't this initial batch stabilize us?? doubt if it will from NYC and points south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 TornadoJay and Bxengine about to get nailed. That storm that raced out ahead looks plenty healthy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 WRF_NMMb has some really nice cells later. Missed that dying MCS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 WRF_NMMb has some really nice cells later. Missed that dying MCS though. that is the complex that could form from the stuff in western ny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Amazing how earlier it looked like the major storms were on a path that would mostly cross west of the city and now there's only one decent storm left and it will pass northeast of the city. This is in addition to the fact that the whole batch has significantly weakened and we look like we won't see any rain at all down here, let alone decent storms. We'll have to wait for later I guess. HRRR looks to be a winner with this batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 WRF_NMMb has some really nice cells later. Missed that dying MCS though. timestamp is for about 7 - 8 pm ? if so the watches will have to be extended and include areas south of NYC metro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Amazing how earlier it looked like the major storms were on a path that would mostly cross west of the city and now there's only one decent storm left and it will pass northeast of the city. This is in addition to the fact that the whole batch has significantly weakened and we look like we won't see any rain at all down here, let alone decent storms. We'll have to wait for later I guess. HRRR looks to be a winner with this batch. the complex really had no chance. Let's see what happens after it moves out, western ny is the place to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Just to get some people over the dying MCS... WRF-NMM at 12 hours (from 8am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like when these storms hit they'll be some big severe wind producers and maybe some hail. Hows the helicity btw? I know rotation with these is unlikely though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NY...PA...NJ...CT CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477... VALID 071736Z - 071900Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477 CONTINUES. SUMMARY...TSTMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE OUTRUN STRONGER FORCING AND/OR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE AT LEAST TWO AREAS THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...ONE AREA WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH APPEARS TO BE A LAKE-BREEZE REINFORCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...OR PERHAPS A SEGMENT OF THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS APPEARS TO INTERSECT THIS BOUNDARY OVER WRN NY WITH NEW TSTM DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS VERY UNSTABLE...AND AN INCREASE IN MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON. VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO EVOLVED FROM NJ ACROSS THE NYC AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 100F IN SOME LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS WITHIN THE THERMAL TROUGH ACROSS THESE AREAS AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATOP THE VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL CERTAINLY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND THUS THE WATCH SHOULD BE MAINTAINED IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 storms firing in western NY behind that complex. that's the show, not this initial batch. The satellite has the look of an early phase of a developing MCS. Should get some nice colder cloud tops showing up later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Im getting excited for later. Nice sat pics blue wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The satellite has the look of an early phase of a developing MCS. Should get some nice colder cloud tops showing up later. the dying MCS debris is clearing up quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 severe parameters are starting to look better. Hopefully we can get a trigger going for later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 severe parameters are starting to look better. Hopefully we can get a trigger going for later on nope, you already said there was no threat later because this MCS couldn't survive this airmass. Whatever that meant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 @bluewave- you think the main threat today is gonna be winds in excess of 60 mph and large hail? Or is there the possibility of microbursts as well? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 storms just went severe over western NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Most of the severe will most likely occur after 7PM. not sure why that watch was even issued. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Watch was mainly issued for the first batch that died atleast that's what I gey from the latest spc dico concerning the watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 OMG, the weenies are out of control. The watch was NOT necessarily issued for the first round since most of that was elevated and not meeting severe criteria, its more about all the stuff you see behind it, including the new stuf forming now or PA. Its only about 3 hours or so till the western NY stuff could be in play, well before 7PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mike2010 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 OMG, the weenies are out of control. The watch was NOT necessarily issued for the first round since most of that was elevated and not meeting severe criteria, its more about all the stuff you see behind it, including the new stuf forming now or PA. Its only about 3 hours or so till the western NY stuff could be in play, well before 7PM. In which most of that won't affect our area until after 7pm. relax kiddo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 In which most of that won't affect our area until after 7pm. relax kiddo 3+3 is 6PM, and its not even 3pm. The stuff in PA could be here by 4, easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The first batch really fell apart...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The first batch really fell apart...wow. as the soundings indicated it would. No surprise there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 All I was stating is what I got from the latest spc disco concerning the watch everyone interprets things differently the way I interpreted it was that they would leave the watch up couse there is still a chance of a isolated severe storm but there was nothing in that disco that made me overly excited about getting storms on long island just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 tops of those storms in PA up to 40k. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The stuff in PA was supposed to fall apart. It was headed towards heavily capped air and weak instability, and crappy ML lapse rates. It went way out ahead of the instability tongue. The stronger tongue of instability will advect eastward as time goes on. And we'll also have to watch for sea breeze boundaries close to the coast. With the instability and strong mid level flow, we can certainly see bowing segments and thus strong winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 tops of those storms in PA up to 40k. yup and they got some good hail with them too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 areas in central and southern jersey could really get nailed by the developing complex over NY now crossing in PA. Wow that thing is getting its act together quick while the smaller complex in Northeast PA is looking better too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Those storms out west look to go well South and west of the nyc metro area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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