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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Amazing how earlier it looked like the major storms were on a path that would mostly cross west of the city and now there's only one decent storm left and it will pass northeast of the city.

This is in addition to the fact that the whole batch has significantly weakened and we look like we won't see any rain at all down here, let alone decent storms.

We'll have to wait for later I guess.

HRRR looks to be a winner with this batch.

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Amazing how earlier it looked like the major storms were on a path that would mostly cross west of the city and now there's only one decent storm left and it will pass northeast of the city.

This is in addition to the fact that the whole batch has significantly weakened and we look like we won't see any rain at all down here, let alone decent storms.

We'll have to wait for later I guess.

HRRR looks to be a winner with this batch.

the complex really had no chance. Let's see what happens after it moves out, western ny is the place to watch.

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mcd1425.gif

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1425

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1236 PM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NY...PA...NJ...CT

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

VALID 071736Z - 071900Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477

CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...TSTMS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA HAVE WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY

INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS APPEAR TO HAVE OUTRUN STRONGER

FORCING AND/OR DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THERE APPEAR TO BE AT

LEAST TWO AREAS THAT COULD SUPPORT SOME NEW TSTM DEVELOPMENT OVER

THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

DISCUSSION...ONE AREA WEST OF THE CURRENT WATCH APPEARS TO BE A

LAKE-BREEZE REINFORCED PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...OR PERHAPS A SEGMENT OF

THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW CROSSING LAKES ONTARIO AND ERIE. OUTFLOW

BOUNDARY FROM MORNING MCS APPEARS TO INTERSECT THIS BOUNDARY OVER

WRN NY WITH NEW TSTM DEVELOP NEAR THE INTERSECTION AND ALONG THE

BOUNDARY. AIRMASS SOUTH AND WEST OF THIS NEW DEVELOPMENT IS VERY

UNSTABLE...AND AN INCREASE IN MORE VIGOROUS DEVELOPMENT IS CERTAINLY

POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF WRN NY/PA THIS AFTERNOON.

VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS HAVE ALSO EVOLVED FROM NJ ACROSS

THE NYC AREA WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE NOW NEARING 100F IN SOME

LOCATIONS. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE PERSISTS WITHIN THE THERMAL TROUGH

ACROSS THESE AREAS AND IT REMAINS POSSIBLE THAT AT LEAST ISOLATED

STORMS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE REGION LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

ANY CONVECTION DEVELOPING ATOP THE VERY HOT BOUNDARY LAYER WILL

CERTAINLY POSE A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND THUS THE WATCH SHOULD

BE MAINTAINED IN THIS PARTICULAR REGION FOR THE TIME BEING.

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storms firing in western NY behind that complex.

that's the show, not this initial batch.

The satellite has the look of an early phase of a developing MCS.

Should get some nice colder cloud tops showing up later.

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OMG, the weenies are out of control. The watch was NOT necessarily issued for the first round since most of that was elevated and not meeting severe criteria, its more about all the stuff you see behind it, including the new stuf forming now or PA. Its only about 3 hours or so till the western NY stuff could be in play, well before 7PM.

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OMG, the weenies are out of control. The watch was NOT necessarily issued for the first round since most of that was elevated and not meeting severe criteria, its more about all the stuff you see behind it, including the new stuf forming now or PA. Its only about 3 hours or so till the western NY stuff could be in play, well before 7PM.

In which most of that won't affect our area until after 7pm.

relax kiddo

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All I was stating is what I got from the latest spc disco concerning the watch everyone interprets things differently the way I interpreted it was that they would leave the watch up couse there is still a chance of a isolated severe storm but there was nothing in that disco that made me overly excited about getting storms on long island just my opinion

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The stuff in PA was supposed to fall apart. It was headed towards heavily capped air and weak instability, and crappy ML lapse rates. It went way out ahead of the instability tongue.

The stronger tongue of instability will advect eastward as time goes on. And we'll also have to watch for sea breeze boundaries close to the coast. With the instability and strong mid level flow, we can certainly see bowing segments and thus strong winds.

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areas in central and southern jersey could really get nailed by the developing complex over NY now crossing in PA. Wow that thing is getting its act together quick while the smaller complex in Northeast PA is looking better too.

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