TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Those storms on the southern end of the complex are in the best environment of good Cape and SB LI, the environment close to the city is downright awful. If these storms cant surive, then nothing will. why would they surviVe coming into this? your statement makes no sense. The cape around 00z is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 SPC new update pretty much lines up with my thoughts from an hour ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 why would they surviVe coming into this? your statement makes no sense. The cape around 00z is much better They dont seem to be surface based and the environment SE of them is not bad untill they get closer to the city. Thats the trigger for storms this afternoon and thats the threat. The later scenario is no longer going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Watch just issued for the area. 80% probs of 10+ severe wind events, but only 10% probs of 1+ severe wind event. DISCUSSION...BAND OF FAST MOVING STORMS OVER WRN NY HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW LEVEL AIR MASS. STRONG WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE GROUND /40-50 KT AT 3-4 KM BASED ON AREA VAD PROFILES/ WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS THE CAP WEAKENS OVER PARTS OF PA THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The biggest threat is clearly damaging winds as the winds just above the deck are ripping, especially for the time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I would bet on the boundary from these storms that are already looking not so good being what gets things to fire later, if we can get the CAPE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 477 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1140 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-005-009-072300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD NEW HAVEN NJC003-013-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-072300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-027-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-105-111-119- 072300- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX DUTCHESS KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK SULLIVAN ULSTER WESTCHESTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 We are going to get crushed...earthlight out of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 We are going to get crushed...earthlight out of town he told me he was going to get a derecho in Ocean City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 he told me he was going to get a derecho in Ocean City. MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is. all of you except Blizz. LOL. He called into WFAN this morning, Kevin from Hartford, LOLZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is. You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Limited CAPE on an 8 am sounding happens sometimes... I'm looking at 2 and 4 hour trends on SPC mesoanalysis site, MUCape is increasing, LFC decreasing, 30 to 35 knots deep layer shear, I am almost glass full optimistic on severe wind reports in Tri-State area, and a somewhat above glass half full optimistic on severe reports down towards Philadelphia and South Jersey. SPC just hoisted a watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is. Tomorrow looks pretty good down here, but today looks great up in the N MA over NJ/NYC and PA. That MCS wasn't really picked up by any models just glancing at them over the last few days. Being on the n fringe of extreme instability, which is where the decent wind fields are straddling...you'd have to think that complex will pick up some steam so long as it doesn't stray too far away from the good shear for organized storms. If we start to see cold pool development it could be a prolific event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=bgm&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Looks like this may be NYC area points east and west time to get severe weather this go around. Im starting to get a little excited right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 there was a run of the NAM that had the storms come in early...I think it was 12z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there? Yeah Scott and OSU etc. were all over this potential yesterday... Good theta-e/moisture advection to the west of the cluster. It is possible the western edge of this cluster will develop in a better environment this afternoon and possibly hold some SIG SVR with it as it comes southward through PA, MD, NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Boaters beware the MCS later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The forward speed is really increased compared to "normal" ...so i'd like to see some more organization as the increased instability surges eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Tomorrow looks pretty good down here, but today looks great up in the N MA over NJ/NYC and PA. That MCS wasn't really picked up by any models just glancing at them over the last few days. Being on the n fringe of extreme instability, which is where the decent wind fields are straddling...you'd have to think that complex will pick up some steam so long as it doesn't stray too far away from the good shear for organized storms. If we start to see cold pool development it could be a prolific event. SREFs actually seem to be doing a good job from Yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there? Well I didn't expect zero activity in SNE so if that happens, then that's a bust. It just had that look when I saw it on the models. I was concerned with clouds and CAPE up here. I'm in ME now and it's cloudy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 NAM had this for days it was just too far north and too slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Storms seem to be becoming less intense according to radar as they move SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The line is moving really fast...it might stay ahead of the instability surge and not really strengthen too much. I think our best chance is something behind the line where the instability is advecting into central PA later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 that batch on radar racing east/southeast is not the main show -can expect some showers and thunder especially northern areas of the metro in the next hour - expect a line of storms to develop over PA and effect the area later this afternoon and early this evening. question is if severe criteria will be met with this line and how that decaying MCS in front of it effects it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdt Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Storms seem to be becoming less intense according to radar as they move SE Yep the vil and tops are not impressive. As a few others have said best chance may be a little later after this action moves through. Of course convective activity is usually quite finicky to subtle variances so time will tell as to what happens in over the next 4-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 storms firing in western NY behind that complex. that's the show, not this initial batch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Won't this initial batch stabilize us?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 7, 2012 Author Share Posted July 7, 2012 the current watch only extends south through middlesex county NJ expect another watch to be issued any time now for middlesex county and points south through philly and southern NJ from around 7 till around midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.