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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Those storms on the southern end of the complex are in the best environment of good Cape and SB LI, the environment close to the city is downright awful. If these storms cant surive, then nothing will.

why would they surviVe coming into this? your statement makes no sense. The cape around 00z is much better

skew_KOKX.gif

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why would they surviVe coming into this? your statement makes no sense. The cape around 00z is much better

skew_KOKX.gif

They dont seem to be surface based and the environment SE of them is not bad untill they get closer to the city. Thats the trigger for storms this afternoon and thats the threat. The later scenario is no longer going to work.

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Watch just issued for the area. 80% probs of 10+ severe wind events, but only 10% probs of 1+ severe wind event.

ww0477_radar.gif

DISCUSSION...BAND OF FAST MOVING STORMS OVER WRN NY HAS SHOWN SIGNS

OF INTENSIFYING AS IT MOVES INTO AN INCREASINGLY WARM/MOIST LOW

LEVEL AIR MASS. STRONG WNWLY FLOW ABOVE THE GROUND /40-50 KT AT 3-4

KM BASED ON AREA VAD PROFILES/ WILL ENHANCE STORM MOTION AND

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO OCCUR. ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY

DEVELOP ALONG THE SWRN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM AS THE CAP WEAKENS OVER

PARTS OF PA THIS AFTERNOON.

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BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 477

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1140 AM EDT SAT JUL 7 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM EDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

CTC001-005-009-072300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/

CT

. CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

FAIRFIELD LITCHFIELD NEW HAVEN

NJC003-013-017-019-023-027-031-035-037-039-041-072300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/

NJ

. NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON

HUNTERDON MIDDLESEX MORRIS

PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX

UNION WARREN

NYC005-027-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-105-111-119-

072300-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0477.120707T1540Z-120707T2300Z/

NY

. NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

BRONX DUTCHESS KINGS

NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE

PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND

ROCKLAND SUFFOLK SULLIVAN

ULSTER WESTCHESTER

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MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is.

all of you except Blizz. LOL. He called into WFAN this morning, Kevin from Hartford, LOLZ.

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MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is.

You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there?

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Limited CAPE on an 8 am sounding happens sometimes...

I'm looking at 2 and 4 hour trends on SPC mesoanalysis site, MUCape is increasing, LFC decreasing, 30 to 35 knots deep layer shear, I am almost glass full optimistic on severe wind reports in Tri-State area, and a somewhat above glass half full optimistic on severe reports down towards Philadelphia and South Jersey.

SPC just hoisted a watch...

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MD could get nailed too. This is working out as we thought in the SNE forum. Best storms would be where best cape and theta e gradient is.

Tomorrow looks pretty good down here, but today looks great up in the N MA over NJ/NYC and PA.

That MCS wasn't really picked up by any models just glancing at them over the last few days. Being on the n fringe of extreme instability, which is where the decent wind fields are straddling...you'd have to think that complex will pick up some steam so long as it doesn't stray too far away from the good shear for organized storms. If we start to see cold pool development it could be a prolific event.

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You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there?

Yeah Scott and OSU etc. were all over this potential yesterday...

Good theta-e/moisture advection to the west of the cluster. It is possible the western edge of this cluster will develop in a better environment this afternoon and possibly hold some SIG SVR with it as it comes southward through PA, MD, NJ.

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Tomorrow looks pretty good down here, but today looks great up in the N MA over NJ/NYC and PA.

That MCS wasn't really picked up by any models just glancing at them over the last few days. Being on the n fringe of extreme instability, which is where the decent wind fields are straddling...you'd have to think that complex will pick up some steam so long as it doesn't stray too far away from the good shear for organized storms. If we start to see cold pool development it could be a prolific event.

SREFs actually seem to be doing a good job from

Yesterday.

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You were right on thinking south of sne yesterday morning....while models held serve for a sne hit....is it raining there?

Well I didn't expect zero activity in SNE so if that happens, then that's a bust. It just had that look when I saw it on the models. I was concerned with clouds and CAPE up here. I'm in ME now and it's cloudy here.

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that batch on radar racing east/southeast is not the main show -can expect some showers and thunder especially northern areas of the metro in the next hour - expect a line of storms to develop over PA and effect the area later this afternoon and early this evening. question is if severe criteria will be met with this line and how that decaying MCS in front of it effects it

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Storms seem to be becoming less intense according to radar as they move SE

Yep the vil and tops are not impressive. As a few others have said best chance may be a little later after this action moves through. Of course convective activity is usually quite finicky to subtle variances so time will tell as to what happens in over the next 4-8 hours.

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the current watch only extends south through middlesex county NJ expect another watch to be issued any time now for middlesex county and points south through philly and southern NJ from around 7 till around midnight

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