Weathergun Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Look on WU how the NAM, GFS, and Euro, handling 500mb vorticity tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I think that the last time we saw 100 degree heat broken by severe convection was back on 6-9-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 For more faith, the 12z SPC WRF tomorrow evening: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Nice sounding on the 18Z NAM KNYC 00Z Sunday, tomorrow 8pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Nice sounding on the 18Z NAM KNYC 00Z Sunday, tomorrow 8pm. id really like to see some good action tommorow its been soooo boring for me here where i live. mother nature is just giving me the middle finger lately haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 That sounding is marginal at best. A minimum of 1500 j/kg of CAPE is needed to sustain severe convection; however, that only shows 1100 for tomorrow. And the LI is only -4*C. We need a minimum of -6*C for severe hail. But some large-scale ascent can compensate for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 That sounding is marginal at best. A minimum of 1500 j/kg of CAPE is needed to sustain severe convection; however, that only shows 1100 for tomorrow. And the LI is only -4*C. We need a minimum of -6*C for severe hail. But some large-scale ascent can compensate for this. ughhh barring some wholesale changes in this system tommorow, its gonna be north and south of us cashing in with maybe some isolated severe in our neck of the woods....fingers crossed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 ughhh barring some wholesale changes in this system tommorow, its gonna be north and south of us cashing in with maybe some isolated severe in our neck of the woods....fingers crossed I agree pretty much. Also, if the modeled shear with the combined 40-50 kt. of 700 mb westerly flow pan out with an impressive jet streak just to our north, it will prove to be too powerful for our lackluster SBCAPE and MLCAPE to handle. Thus, most of our storms will be sheared, low-topped and an elevated mess. I'd take 3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE combined with 30 kt of bulk shear any day over this progged setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I agree pretty much. Also, if the modeled shear with the combined 40-50 kt. of 700 mb westerly flow pan out with an impressive jet streak just to our north, it will prove to be too powerful for our lackluster SBCAPE and MLCAPE to handle. Thus, most of our storms will be sheared, low-topped and an elevated mess. I'd take 3000+ j/kg of MLCAPE combined with 30 kt of bulk shear any day over this progged setup. absolutely, but tommorow i dont think is gonna be for us, if we do get something id be surprised. who knows we may get something, just gotta wait till tommorow to know for sure whats going on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 SPC Day 1 Outlook: non-hatched 15% hail, 30% wind - highest probabilities yet for our area this year. If modeled shear becomes a bit more directional, helicity increases and/or storms does not become outflow-oriented, then we could be included in 2% or 5% tornado risks in later outlooks. If our LI goes below -6*C and we get sufficient cape in the hail-producing layer, then our hail probabilities could increase to 30%. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SUBSIDE AND ELONGATE LATITUDINALLY FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE WEST. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SERN CANADA WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NORTHEAST/UPPER OH VALLEY... A COMPLEX SEVERE SETUP IS ANTICIPATED WITH RELATIVELY NARROW OVERLAP OF THE MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AMIDST A WEAKLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THAT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS IT EVOLVES E/SEWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WLYS AID IN ADVECTING RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST. WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE STEEP...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME CENTERED IN THIS REGION...TO AROUND 50 KT AT 700 MB BY 21Z. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY REMAIN WEAK...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PA INTO FAR SERN NY AND NJ. HERE...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD EXIST WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL.</p> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 SPC Day 1 Outlook: non-hatched 15% hail, 30% wind - highest probabilities yet for our area this year. If modeled shear becomes a bit more directional, helicity increases and/or storms does not become outflow-oriented, then we could be included in 2% or 5% tornado risks in later outlooks. If our LI goes below -6*C and we get sufficient cape in the hail-producing layer, then our hail probabilities could increase to 30%.DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1258 AM CDT SAT JUL 07 2012 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM OH TO THE NORTHEAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THAT HAS PERSISTENTLY BEEN ANCHORED OVER THE LOWER MO VALLEY WILL SUBSIDE AND ELONGATE LATITUDINALLY FROM THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SRN APPALACHIANS BY EARLY SUN AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD IN THE WEST. A MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SERN CANADA WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND INTO NY BY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WWD TO THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. ...NORTHEAST/UPPER OH VALLEY... A COMPLEX SEVERE SETUP IS ANTICIPATED WITH RELATIVELY NARROW OVERLAP OF THE MOST FAVORABLE KINEMATIC PARAMETERS WITH THE BEST THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT AMIDST A WEAKLY FORCED LARGE-SCALE PATTERN. A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT 12Z OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...THAT WILL PROBABLY WEAKEN AS IT EVOLVES E/SEWD DURING THE MORNING HOURS. STRONG HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN TEMPERATURES REACHING INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S IN THE WARM SECTOR...WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WLYS AID IN ADVECTING RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE FROM THE MIDWEST. WITH MID/UPPER-LEVEL LAPSE RATES NOT EXPECTED TO BE STEEP...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK FROM THE HUDSON VALLEY INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER...STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME CENTERED IN THIS REGION...TO AROUND 50 KT AT 700 MB BY 21Z. ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAY REMAIN WEAK...WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE TO STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...MULTICELL TO SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ARE PROBABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS PA INTO FAR SERN NY AND NJ. HERE...THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR A SMALL MCS WITH EMBEDDED BOWING SEGMENTS SHOULD EXIST WITH PRIMARY RISKS OF DAMAGING WIND AND SEVERE HAIL.</p> In other words if everything changes, lol. No way you'll see a 5% tor, let alone a 2% in all likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Woooohoooo bring it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Woooohoooo bring it Lets not get all tingly inside yet. This year everytime a widespread severe outbreak is forecast for our area it hasnt delivered, but when nothing is expected we get severe storms. Im not gonna get excited until we actually see the storms develop in our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 NAM soundings are not impressive. Let's see how the day unfolds. If we see a small MCS form, that would help. It won't be individual storms. Cape has really backed off the last few days but we do have good shear, so if we get better cape, that would be good. 00Z sounding is big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think we'll be more unstable than what the NAM suggests. We already have around 7.0 C/km mid-level rates. We'll have to watch convective debris from the north, though: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 I think we'll be more unstable than what the NAM suggests. We already have around 7.0 C/km mid-level rates. We'll have to watch convective debris from the north, though: this is ahead of the front though that's the problem. A lot of clouds today, high temps in trouble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The latest NAM is hinting that storms will blossom in the I-80 to I-78 corridor of NNJ then move ESE from there where the 700 mb jet hits the higher instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The 11z HRRR has that complex over Western NY falling apart before reaching us. Then another batch of t-storms developing by 20z over North-Central PA. Still have to monitor. I'm heading out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 The latest NAM is hinting that storms will blossom in the I-80 to I-78 corridor of NNJ then move ESE from there where the 700 mb jet hits the higher instability. our best shot is 0-3z tonight. i expect a lot of posts calling bust before then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Just a quick map I whipped together, but I'm very concerned about NE PA and that could spill over into portions of SE NY and N NJ. I think we could see some powerful storms develop later on, but it will be interesting to see how the current activity in western NY affects that. Severe weather parameters, including spiking dew-points I think put portions of NE PA into the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 best chance of storms is clearly with the complex droping SE from the finger lakes, that should impact the area 2-4pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 best chance of storms is clearly with the complex droping SE from the finger lakes, that should impact the area 2-4pm Weathergun says HRRR dissipates it. What do over models say? Looks like a new complex forms on the NAM judging from its farther west positioning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
battlebrick Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 finally some severe action .... got that iPhone ready to record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 This is where things get interesting. HRRR breaks it down and then sparks a stronger one by mid-afternoon. If the current complex hangs on now, that might diminish the threat of a more severe one later. If the complex breaks down, that could allow further destabilization of the column and a higher severe threat for mid-late afternoon. actually if it moves through at the current rate some spots could very well see two rounds of strong storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 unlikely that it will break down, thats the only shot since clouds are now on the increase as the complex approaches. Behind that any higher dews will mix out and the threat will be over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 best chance of storms is clearly with the complex droping SE from the finger lakes, that should impact the area 2-4pm No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 actually if it moves through at the current rate some spots could very well see two rounds of strong storms Quincy whats the chances of severe storms form NYC on east? Being that im from this area want to know if i should get excited lol. Looks like we could get something but not so sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Quincy whats the chances of severe storms form NYC on east? Being that im from this area want to know if i should get excited lol. Looks like we could get something but not so sure I'm not sold on much severe weather east of the Hudson in NY/CT or from NYC metro on east, but we will still need to keep a close eye, especially if we can hang onto more sunshine and keep the current NY activity away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 7, 2012 Share Posted July 7, 2012 Those storms on the southern end of the complex are in the best environment of good Cape and SB LI, the environment close to the city is downright awful. If these storms cant surive, then nothing will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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