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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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Would you recommend the GRanalyst for severe storm tracking?

i got the trial version and when its up im paying the $250 for the license. hands down the best meteological tool ive used. the 3-D view of a storm really dissects whats going on and gives soooo much detail. buy it and you will not regret it bud

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It's the best radar program out there, IMO. Well worth the money.

i got the trial version and when its up im paying the $250 for the license. hands down the best meteological tool ive used. the 3-D view of a storm really dissects whats going on and gives soooo much detail. buy it and you will not regret it bud

Thanks, I guess I'll try it out soon. I originally planned to use the money to buy access to the ECM but that can wait until there's actually something called a winter.

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@Blizzard or SmokeEater: What are the PC system requirements for GRanalyst to run sufficiently?

I honestly don't know the exact requirements, but you don't need a ridiculously fast computer. I run it on both my laptop and desktop, neither of which are very new. You may get some lag, that's all.

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SPC Day 2 outlook is kind of bearish for our severe chances on Saturday. We still are under a 15% slight risk area; but the SCP notes that the lack of convergence and destabilization may screw our chances.

As usual, their Day 3 outlook is bullish for the Mid-Atlantic. They are under a much higher 30% risk because that area will have 3000-4000 j/kg of MLCAPE and decent shear to boot. Look at this graphic. This and the common theme with all their severe reports this summer is worse than the time when most of us received 40 fewer inches of snow than all of the Mid-Atlantic during the 2009-2010 winter season.

By this time tomorrow, they could be under a 45% moderate hatched risk. :axe:

day3prob_0730.gif

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The models are continuing to hit New England the hardest so any threat further south may be more

widely scattered in nature with the main focus north.

That really stinks. Even if we just got some good thunder, lightning and wind it would be nice but its just incredible how our area hasnt done very well as compared to our surrounding areas. Who knows maybe it will change but we'll know tommorow for sure what the deal is.

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Actually, the slower movement of cold front on the current models, favors more severe weather further south on Sunday. Areas to the north, don't see as much as forecast instability. The timing is just off for more widespread severe closer to the NYC area. Still time to for things change though.

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The 12z NAM came further south again for later Saturday into the evening so it will be interesting

to see if there is any follow through from the other guidance or the NAM is on it's own. It develops

one cluster SE from the Poconos and another down across CT.

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12z NAM may be a hiccup. 12z GFS will be very interesting. The jump seems suspect, especially since the SREF mean was much more in line with 00z data.

The POPS on the GFS look like they are the highest from around NYC eastward something like the SREF's.

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Euro says tomorrow is fairly quiet around here best stuff over the hudson valley and VT.

It does have precip, but no crazy qpf blobs indicating intense convection.

How far West in the hudson valley? Nothing will be worse than being rained out while in the catskills with the future in-laws.

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