earthlight Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 earthlight with the current data regarding this severe threat late saturday, do you think this threat holds some merit or is too early to get too excited for anything? thanks Any time you have decent wind fields overlapping the northern 1/3 of a warm sector the threat has merit. The shortwave is there on all models, the issue is likely going to be the surface moisture and the southward advection of better shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 dry air at the surface is a big question mark for saturday, as you say, higher the dews, the better. The instability will be there. If we start to see the 103-105 F temps come to fruition, the severe threat might be in trouble. Those temps would require lower dew points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 If we start to see the 103-105 F temps come to fruition, the severe threat might be in trouble. Those temps would require lower dew points. Yeah. Its going to be very interesting to follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Look at that moisture pooling along the front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 SPC with a mirror image Day 3 outlook like it was on Monday. I'll believe it if they keep it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 NAM soundings 0z Sun, in NYC area support widespread severe. Mainly damaging winds and large hail. 500-850mb lapse rates around 7.0C/km, MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear 30kts+. http://wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 NAM soundings 0z Sun, in NYC area support widespread severe. Mainly damaging winds and large hail. 500-850mb lapse rates around 7.0C/km, MLCAPE 2000-2500 J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear 30kts+. http://wxcaster.com/model_skewt.htm Yeah it's posted above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Euro says the main show on Saturday night is over SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Euro says the main show on Saturday night is over SNE. that would be par the course haha. we'll see but this year the actions either been north or south of our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 that would be par the course haha. we'll see but this year the actions either been north or south of our area really not sure what you guys are talking about saying we have been missed by storms...sure we didnt get a Derecho, but my neck of the woods and long island has seen many storms so far, my location specifically 2 severe storms, and a few others with ridiculous rain and lightning. I remember when in the summer it used to just rain sometimes and every precipitation threat was not accompanied by hail or strong wind gusts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 really not sure what you guys are talking about saying we have been missed by storms...sure we didnt get a Derecho, but my neck of the woods and long island has seen many storms so far, my location specifically 2 severe storms, and a few others with ridiculous rain and lightning. I remember when in the summer it used to just rain sometimes and every precipitation threat was not accompanied by hail or strong wind gusts... your in nassau and you get a hell of alot more stronger storms then where i am in southwest suffolk near the beach. ive had one storm this year with loud thunder and thats been my highlight so far. town(s) over have had reports of hail/wind but not me. glad you've been getting something though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 That is true, and this thread is entitled "Convection Discussion"...we are discussing the convection so far this summer...not really sure why that belongs in banter? And yea snowstorms sometime cause power outages, but i only remember losing power due to ice storms not snow storms...maybe the power grid is not as resilient in your neck of the woods? I will say that the lightning last night from that LI storm was beautiful, was mainly cloud to cloud from my eyes and lit up the sky above the fireworks. yes it was awesome last night the lightning totally agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 yes it was awesome last night the lightning totally agree In fairness to you, both of those storms slammed NW suffolk and died out before SW suffolk, although didnt you get something yesterday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Euro says the main show on Saturday night is over SNE. Front stalled? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Front stalled? no, just where the everything lines up well. It's actually been saying this for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 no, just where the everything lines up well. It's actually been saying this for days. hows it looking for the catskill region? Ill be 30 min north of monticello this weekend for some country living Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 hows it looking for the catskill region? Ill be 30 min north of monticello this weekend for some country living All the heavy stuff is in SNE per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 In fairness to you, both of those storms slammed NW suffolk and died out before SW suffolk, although didnt you get something yesterday afternoon? nope that one missed me as well because like the evening cell it died as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think that we will be missed to the north on Day 3 and to the south of Day 4. SPC's Day 4 outlook shows the Mid-Atlantic cashing in on the goods once again. Our area will likely have too much dry air advection on Monday behind the front but too much cloud debris from very high PWATs on Sunday morning ahead of the front, limiting our SBCAPEs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think that we will be missed to the north on Day 3 and to the south of Day 4. SPC's Day 4 outlook shows the Mid-Atlantic cashing in on the goods once again. Our area will likely have too much dry air advection on Monday behind the front but too much cloud debris from very high PWATs on Sunday morning ahead of the front, limiting our SBCAPEs. i hate to sound like a debbie downer, but the fact that the euro is showing SNE being in the bullseye the past few days should be a sign that this threat really isnt ideal for us. i think we'll def get some severe storms in our neck of the woods but as far as a widespread severe threat, im not too excited yet. but like weather you dont really know till zero hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday. I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports should the potential be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday. I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports should the potential be realized. be a real kick in the plums if the next MCS misses us to the north like the last one missed us to the south lol. not that im a fan of losing power for days on end with this heat, but would be nice for us in the tristate to get a piece of that pie too haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday. I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports should the potential be realized. Is it true that the only model showing a meaningful severe threat for NYC right now is the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Is it true that the only model showing a meaningful severe threat for NYC right now is the NAM? looks like it. having the nam on your side over the other globals/us models is like bringing a knife to a gunfight, just isnt gonna end well lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 looks like it. having the nam on your side over the other globals/us models is like bringing a knife to a gunfight, just isnt gonna end well lol The NAM's been trending north/slower throughout today's runs as well... wouldn't surprise me if we also lose the NAM's support. There could still be some storms overnight but at this rate the area seems to fall in the shaft zone of the worst severe wx between Saturday and Sunday due to bad timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 @NYCSUBURBS- looks like its on to the next threat for us then, save for drastic changes in the models going more south with the jet/timing. Atleast ill be able to use my GRanalyst on saturday tho to track the storms up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 @NYCSUBURBS- looks like its on to the next threat for us then, save for drastic changes in the models going more south with the jet/timing. Atleast ill be able to use my GRanalyst on saturday tho to track the storms up north Would you recommend the GRanalyst for severe storm tracking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 Would you recommend the GRanalyst for severe storm tracking? That is what is was made for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 That is what is was made for. I guess my wording choice wasn't the best but I was asking if it's a good program he would recommend, as I'm looking for a more advanced program to track severe weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 6, 2012 Share Posted July 6, 2012 I guess my wording choice wasn't the best but I was asking if it's a good program he would recommend, as I'm looking for a more advanced program to track severe weather. It's the best radar program out there, IMO. Well worth the money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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