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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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earthlight with the current data regarding this severe threat late saturday, do you think this threat holds some merit or is too early to get too excited for anything? thanks

Any time you have decent wind fields overlapping the northern 1/3 of a warm sector the threat has merit. The shortwave is there on all models, the issue is likely going to be the surface moisture and the southward advection of better shear.

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dry air at the surface is a big question mark for saturday, as you say, higher the dews, the better. The instability will be there.

If we start to see the 103-105 F temps come to fruition, the severe threat might be in trouble. Those temps would require lower dew points.

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that would be par the course haha. we'll see but this year the actions either been north or south of our area

really not sure what you guys are talking about saying we have been missed by storms...sure we didnt get a Derecho, but my neck of the woods and long island has seen many storms so far, my location specifically 2 severe storms, and a few others with ridiculous rain and lightning.

I remember when in the summer it used to just rain sometimes and every precipitation threat was not accompanied by hail or strong wind gusts...

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really not sure what you guys are talking about saying we have been missed by storms...sure we didnt get a Derecho, but my neck of the woods and long island has seen many storms so far, my location specifically 2 severe storms, and a few others with ridiculous rain and lightning.

I remember when in the summer it used to just rain sometimes and every precipitation threat was not accompanied by hail or strong wind gusts...

your in nassau and you get a hell of alot more stronger storms then where i am in southwest suffolk near the beach. ive had one storm this year with loud thunder and thats been my highlight so far. town(s) over have had reports of hail/wind but not me. glad you've been getting something though

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That is true, and this thread is entitled "Convection Discussion"...we are discussing the convection so far this summer...not really sure why that belongs in banter?

And yea snowstorms sometime cause power outages, but i only remember losing power due to ice storms not snow storms...maybe the power grid is not as resilient in your neck of the woods?

I will say that the lightning last night from that LI storm was beautiful, was mainly cloud to cloud from my eyes and lit up the sky above the fireworks.

yes it was awesome last night the lightning totally agree

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yes it was awesome last night the lightning totally agree

In fairness to you, both of those storms slammed NW suffolk and died out before SW suffolk, although didnt you get something yesterday afternoon?

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no, just where the everything lines up well. It's actually been saying this for days.

hows it looking for the catskill region? Ill be 30 min north of monticello this weekend for some country living

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I think that we will be missed to the north on Day 3 and to the south of Day 4. SPC's Day 4 outlook shows the Mid-Atlantic cashing in on the goods once again. Our area will likely have too much dry air advection on Monday behind the front but too much cloud debris from very high PWATs on Sunday morning ahead of the front, limiting our SBCAPEs.

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I think that we will be missed to the north on Day 3 and to the south of Day 4. SPC's Day 4 outlook shows the Mid-Atlantic cashing in on the goods once again. Our area will likely have too much dry air advection on Monday behind the front but too much cloud debris from very high PWATs on Sunday morning ahead of the front, limiting our SBCAPEs.

i hate to sound like a debbie downer, but the fact that the euro is showing SNE being in the bullseye the past few days should be a sign that this threat really isnt ideal for us. i think we'll def get some severe storms in our neck of the woods but as far as a widespread severe threat, im not too excited yet. but like weather you dont really know till zero hour.

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It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday.

I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet

intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England

but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs

on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody

is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports

should the potential be realized.

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It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday.

I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet

intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England

but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs

on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody

is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports

should the potential be realized.

be a real kick in the plums if the next MCS misses us to the north like the last one missed us to the south lol. not that im a fan of losing power for days on end with this heat, but would be nice for us in the tristate to get a piece of that pie too haha

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It will be interesting to see where the 700 mb jet actually sets up on Saturday.

I believe there could be a swath of potential wind damage where the jet

intersects the greatest areas on instability. It's currently over New England

but I wouldn't settle on the exact location until we see what the 12z runs

on Saturday show as to the location. If a 50 kt 700 mb jet verifies, somebody

is going to see a damaging bow echo-MCS with many severe wind reports

should the potential be realized.

Is it true that the only model showing a meaningful severe threat for NYC right now is the NAM?

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looks like it. having the nam on your side over the other globals/us models is like bringing a knife to a gunfight, just isnt gonna end well lol

The NAM's been trending north/slower throughout today's runs as well... wouldn't surprise me if we also lose the NAM's support. There could still be some storms overnight but at this rate the area seems to fall in the shaft zone of the worst severe wx between Saturday and Sunday due to bad timing.

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@NYCSUBURBS- looks like its on to the next threat for us then, save for drastic changes in the models going more south with the jet/timing. Atleast ill be able to use my GRanalyst on saturday tho to track the storms up north

Would you recommend the GRanalyst for severe storm tracking?

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