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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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The only fireworks in NYC are man made at this time. Watching them on NBC TV with Regis Philbin courtesy of Macy's.

Very beautiful..

Dude our neighborhood is absolutely bursting with fireworks displays. I just got home from seeing tons and I can easily still hear endless fireworks going off. Take a ride around the streets so you can see some good stuff in person instead of on tv.

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Dude our neighborhood is absolutely bursting with fireworks displays. I just got home from seeing tons and I can easily still hear endless fireworks going off. Take a ride around the streets so you can see some good stuff in person instead of on tv.

Including the ones me and you did! Whitestone area was insane today. Ton of people doing fireworks this year.

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You get all the cool weather Grrrrr lol

It's pretty cool to be able to see the entire cloud structure lit up while the stars are out overhead and it's dead silent. One of my favorite things to see...a similar situation to this got me into the whole meteorology thing back when I was a kid.

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Dude our neighborhood is absolutely bursting with fireworks displays. I just got home from seeing tons and I can easily still hear endless fireworks going off. Take a ride around the streets so you can see some good stuff in person instead of on tv.

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It's pretty cool to be able to see the entire cloud structure lit up while the stars are out overhead and it's dead silent. One of my favorite things to see...a similar situation to this got me into the whole meteorology thing back when I was a kid.

I love it when that happens. I was up in the Catskills a few years ago and the lightning lit up the outline of the mountains it was pretty cool to see. . Epic Thunderstorms on July 4th (I think it was either 1998 or 1999) while I was in the Catskills with my grandparents, was what I think the thing that first got me into weather, the flooding from those was awesome to look at. Only hurricane Irene came close to the damage that those storms caused, but the snowstorm on Christmas Day 2002 was the event that really got me into weather. I was amazed by how fast it went from pouring rain to heavy snow so fast

Sorry for the OT post. Lol

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SPC has our area in another Day 3 Slight Risk for the second time this week. I hope the areal coverage of the storms will be at least 20 times that of today's coverage. Then again, that's not saying much because the only severe cell today was focused on Westchester and Fairfield counties.

I do have to say that the progged effective shear looks more promising. Only thing that may put a hamper to things is the mid-level cap forecasted on Saturday.

I hope NYC cashes in on some meaningful rain at least because if it goes through Saturday without any, it will sink further into a significant rainfall deficit. Next week looks largely uneventful as well in terms of rainfall.

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SPC has our area in another Day 3 Slight Risk for the second time this week. I hope the areal coverage of the storms will be at least 20 times that of today's coverage. Then again, that's not saying much because the only severe cell today was focused on Westchester and Fairfield counties.

I do have to say that the progged effective shear looks more promising. Only thing that may put a hamper to things is the mid-level cap forecasted on Saturday.

I hope NYC cashes in on some meaningful rain at least because if it goes through Saturday without any, it will sink further into a significant rainfall deficit. Next week looks largely uneventful as well in terms of rainfall.

Middle of next week could bring some storms.

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It was pretty awesome last night around 10:30 or so. I could see that cell over western Long Island all the way from my place in NJ. The lightning was fairly frequent and I was far enough away that I could see the lightning in the top of the clouds. I wish I would of had my cammera with me.

yea i was about 10 miles west of that storm, lightning was great to see. I also saw the lightning from the jersey storms here.

I have a nice shot of the storm cloud from the afternoon storm over western suffolk as well, huge tower

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we'll see what happens i suppose sunday. SPC is honking on the day 3 outlook. hows the shear, cape and mid level lapse rates compared to yesterday trials?

Everything prior to this hour is a bad sounding for severe and then at 00z it goes nuts. Seeing a lifted index below 6 in nyc is pretty rare. Of course it has to verify.

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Everything prior to this hour is a bad sounding for severe and then at 00z it goes nuts. Seeing a lifted index below 6 in nyc is pretty rare. Of course it has to verify.

yea verification thats been a problem to put it bluntly this year with severe as we get closer to an event that once looked promising, i myself think this looks promising for the tristate/coastal areas. atleast you got some action yesterday right?

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Who said Sunday? I said 00Z sunday, which is 8PM saturday.

why do they gotta make these time stamps so damn complicated. its a forecast not a damn missile launch plan haha. but saturday i know there will be tons of instability and the atmosphere will have the chance to get something going. its odd though leading up to the 00z hour the conditions arent that good but then it just ramps up

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The NAM drops the dewpoints near Newark into the upper 50's/lower 60's Saturday evening (you can see the upper 50's contour over Central NJ) with temperatures well over 100 F. It tried to do this last weekend as well and the idea was incorrect/overdone. If dewpoints stay higher, the temperatures may not soar to the ridiculous 105 F levels the NAM is showing, but it would certainly fare better for a severe threat.

f57.gif

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The NAM drops the dewpoints near Newark into the upper 50's/lower 60's Saturday evening (you can see the upper 50's contour over Central NJ) with temperatures well over 100 F. It tried to do this last weekend as well and the idea was incorrect/overdone. If dewpoints stay higher, the temperatures may not soar to the ridiculous 105 F levels the NAM is showing, but it would certainly fare better for a severe threat.

f57.gif

earthlight with the current data regarding this severe threat late saturday, do you think this threat holds some merit or is too early to get too excited for anything? thanks

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earthlight with the current data regarding this severe threat late saturday, do you think this threat holds some merit or is too early to get too excited for anything? thanks

dry air at the surface is a big question mark for saturday, as you say, higher the dews, the better. The instability will be there.

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