Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i wasnt really seriously meaning that just making a statement saying that there was no storms behind it in the general vicinity. how did you do with the storm trials? We'll have to see if those t-storms over Catskills and Poconos, cant get organized the next few hours. As of 21z MLCAPES have risen again to over 3000 j/g and effective bulk shear has increased to 25-30kts. But mid-level lapse rates remain poor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 KHPN sounding 00Z. Still pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 KHPN sounding 00Z. Still pretty good. Next hour should be a good determination if storms develop. Models have things popping between 6 and 9, if theres no action by 7, im thinking stick a cork in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Next hour should be a good determination if storms develop. Models have things popping between 6 and 9, if theres no action by 7, im thinking stick a cork in it. no, between 23z and 3z. The stuff over NY/VT is going to get down here and be the main show. Said it earlier and stand by that. 01Z is my best guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I feel even worse for Wisconsin right now. They have extremely high instability right now and a temp/dewpoint of 99/76. Yet, they are not getting a single storm right now because of a mid-level cap. How is our cap doing by the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I feel even worse for Wisconsin right now. They have extremely high instability right now and a temp/dewpoint of 99/76. Yet, they are not getting a single storm right now because of a mid-level cap. How is our cap doing by the way? storms earlier were between 45 and 70k feet, I would say the cap was not an issue, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0546 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 042246Z - 042345Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR DMMG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NERN PA...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING E-SEWD INTO NRN NJ AND SERN NY. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED. DISCUSSION...INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE PAST 1-2 HRS NEAR THE CATSKILL MTNS OF S-CNTRL NY SWD INTO NERN PA...OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS AREA IS ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED 20-30 KTS AT 2-4 KM AGL PER BGM VWP/ ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE TROUGH...WITH SOME GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE PERHAPS CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE MORE RECENTLY. AIR MASS DOWNSTREAM APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING CONVECTION INTO FAR NERN PA AND EVENTUALLY NRN NJ/SERN NY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH MODIFIED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. BUT THIS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE HRS. SHOULD ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR WITH ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NERN PA AND S-CNTRL NY...AN INCREASED THREAT FOR DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY EXTEND SEWD. ..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 07/04/2012 ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Now under a slight risk for entire area. 15% wind, 15% hail. DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0549 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012 VALID 042245Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST... AMENDED FOR SLIGHT RISK IN THE NORTHEAST ADDED SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTHEAST WITH ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN A MODERATELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY THAT SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING. ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE... CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS IS STILL NOT PARTICULARLY CLEAR...BUT A SIGNIFICANT...SIZABLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER HAS ALREADY EVOLVED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ...AND THIS SEEMS TO SUPPORT INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ACROSS AT LEAST PARTS OF MINNESOTA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF DULUTH...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN. STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN CYCLONE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND STILL LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A TENDENCY FOR LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION. HOWEVER...A REMNANT IMPULSE WITHIN THE MONSOONAL REGIME ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND THREAT THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY...WHERE IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER NEAR SURFACE INFLOW OF COOL AIR FROM THE LAKE WILL STRONGLY WEAKEN IT...OR LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF MICHIGAN. IT MAY BE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATION CONTRIBUTES TO A DISTINCT NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHERE UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR IN THE PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR COULD PROVE FAVORABLE TO A FORWARD/EASTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PERHAPS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD STILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL EVOLVING CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 MCS or pseudo MCS could be forming over VT/NY, that same cluster I pointed out earlier. Looks like SPC seeing that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 some folks are going to have their fireworks delayed or cancelled - hope officials are watching their radars - dangerous situation BUT NYC fireworks look safe though - western NJ and lower hudson valley and CT look iffy http://www.wundergro...99&avg_off=9999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I'm up in the Catskills and we have thunderstorms popping up east northeast and well west of us I'm in near Woodridge, I'll let you know if there is anything special up her this evening because it seems to be headed to the city a few hours after us. It's around 80 here btw. High of 86f. Elevation 1,470 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Hm. MLCAPE is starting to go down the crapper from NYC on east; but bulk shear is increasing on a SE flow aloft for eastern locations of NYC. And convergence mixing ratios are increasing. I still have a temp/dewpoint of 94/68 in coastal Brooklyn. Let's see if any outflow boundaries from the storms can interact with this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Beautiful CU to the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 tops on those cells in the hudson valley looking good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Beautiful CU to the NE It sure is. I can see it to my NE from here in Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 That cell approaching the 84/87 intersection is def looking better, tops at 45k and growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It sure is. I can see it to my NE from here in Nassau. Nice cumulonimbus clouds. Thanks for posting. The thunderstorm cells have been sliding from the NW to SE and to the east of NYC so far today. Lets watch and see if this holds up for NYC this evening for the fireworks. Happy 4th! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 that cell growing again tops to 45k again. Riding that good cape I imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 that cell growing again tops to 45k again. Riding that good cape I imagine. About to get good in Mahopac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 About to get good in Mahopac. sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 now severe warned, looks like Hail again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 now severe warned, looks like Hail again. Hail, lightning and not a ton of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 now severe warned, looks like Hail again. Now we know that your place on earth is in Westchester county, NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Now we know that your place on earth is in Westchester county, NY. nope, sw ct but I am hoping it comes straight down, i can see the hail on the radar app Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 nope, sw ct but I am hoping it comes straight down, i can see the hail on the radar app , be careful.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Looks like that cell will hit the same spot twice today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Looks like that cell will hit the same spot twice today? close this looks like two to three cells now, so its gonna be a litle more wide spread the 00z-3z call is looking good, and we still have stuff up in VT and Albany that may clip some areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 close this looks like two to three cells now, so its gonna be a litle more wide spread the 00z-3z call is looking good, and we still have stuff up in VT and Albany that may clip some areas Good storm. Rain was torrential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 0z OKX sounding showed MLCAPE 2047 J/kg: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 second warning of the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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