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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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i wasnt really seriously meaning that just making a statement saying that there was no storms behind it in the general vicinity. how did you do with the storm trials?

We'll have to see if those t-storms over Catskills and Poconos, cant get organized the next few hours. As of 21z MLCAPES have risen again to over 3000 j/g and effective bulk shear has increased to 25-30kts. But mid-level lapse rates remain poor.

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KHPN sounding 00Z. Still pretty good.

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Next hour should be a good determination if storms develop. Models have things popping between 6 and 9, if theres no action by 7, im thinking stick a cork in it.

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Next hour should be a good determination if storms develop. Models have things popping between 6 and 9, if theres no action by 7, im thinking stick a cork in it.

no, between 23z and 3z. The stuff over NY/VT is going to get down here and be the main show. Said it earlier and stand by that.

01Z is my best guess

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I feel even worse for Wisconsin right now. They have extremely high instability right now and a temp/dewpoint of 99/76. Yet, they are not getting a single storm right now because of a mid-level cap. How is our cap doing by the way?

storms earlier were between 45 and 70k feet, I would say the cap was not an issue, lol

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i6bfd2.jpg

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1394

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0546 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN PA...NRN NJ...SERN NY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 042246Z - 042345Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...A THREAT FOR DMMG WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL WILL

EXIST ACROSS PARTS OF NERN PA...AND PERHAPS EXTENDING E-SEWD INTO

NRN NJ AND SERN NY. WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN ATTM...BUT CONVECTIVE

TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED.

DISCUSSION...INCREASING TSTM ACTIVITY HAS BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE PAST

1-2 HRS NEAR THE CATSKILL MTNS OF S-CNTRL NY SWD INTO NERN

PA...OCCURRING WITHIN WEAKLY CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THIS AREA IS

ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW /SAMPLED 20-30 KTS

AT 2-4 KM AGL PER BGM VWP/ ASSOCIATED WITH A CANADIAN SHORTWAVE

TROUGH...WITH SOME GLANCING INFLUENCE OF THIS DISTURBANCE PERHAPS

CONTRIBUTING TO INCREASE IN TSTM COVERAGE MORE RECENTLY. AIR MASS

DOWNSTREAM APPEARS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR MAINTAINING CONVECTION INTO

FAR NERN PA AND EVENTUALLY NRN NJ/SERN NY AS TEMPERATURES HAVE

HEATED INTO THE LOWER 90S...WITH MODIFIED OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS FIELDS

INDICATING MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2500 J/KG. BUT THIS SHOULD

GRADUALLY DECREASE WITH TIME AS DIURNAL COOLING COMMENCES WITHIN THE

NEXT COUPLE HRS. SHOULD ORGANIZED COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT OCCUR WITH

ONGOING CONVECTION OVER NERN PA AND S-CNTRL NY...AN INCREASED THREAT

FOR DMGG WINDS AND MARGINALLY SVR HAIL MAY EXTEND SEWD.

..ROGERS/CORFIDI.. 07/04/2012

ATTN...WFO...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

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Now under a slight risk for entire area. 15% wind, 15% hail.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

0549 PM CDT WED JUL 04 2012

VALID 042245Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT

LAKES TO THE UPPER OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST...

AMENDED FOR SLIGHT RISK IN THE NORTHEAST

ADDED SLIGHT RISK FOR NORTHEAST WITH ONGOING SEVERE STORMS IN A

MODERATELY FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND BUOYANCY

THAT SHOULD PERSIST THIS EVENING.

...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE...

CHANGES TO PRIOR OUTLOOK ARE GENERALLY CONFINED TO PORTIONS OF THE

UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...MOSTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR ONGOING CONVECTIVE

ACTIVITY. POTENTIAL EVOLUTION INTO THE EVENING HOURS IS STILL NOT

PARTICULARLY CLEAR...BUT A SIGNIFICANT...SIZABLE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER

HAS ALREADY EVOLVED ACROSS NORTHERN MINNESOTA ...AND THIS SEEMS TO

SUPPORT INCREASING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE HAIL AND WIND ACROSS AT

LEAST PARTS OF MINNESOTA TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF

DULUTH...THROUGH NORTHERN WISCONSIN.

STRONGER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED WITH CANADIAN

CYCLONE WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. THE

MID-LEVEL LOW CENTER IS NOW OVER NORTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...AND STILL

LIFTING NORTHEASTWARD...WITH A TENDENCY FOR LARGER SCALE MID-LEVEL

HEIGHT RISES OVER THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY/GREAT LAKES REGION.

HOWEVER...A REMNANT IMPULSE WITHIN THE MONSOONAL REGIME ON THE

NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING COULD STILL CONTRIBUTE

TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN LATE THIS

AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

ONGOING ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE EASTWARD WITH A SEVERE HAIL AND WIND

THREAT THROUGH THE MINNESOTA ARROWHEAD. 20-30 KT WESTERLY DEEP

LAYER MEAN FLOW PROBABLY WILL MAINTAIN EASTWARD MOTION INTO THE LAKE

SUPERIOR VICINITY...WHERE IT IS STILL NOT CLEAR WHETHER NEAR SURFACE

INFLOW OF COOL AIR FROM THE LAKE WILL STRONGLY WEAKEN IT...OR

LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN

SIGNIFICANT ELEVATED CONVECTION INTO THE UPPER PENINSULA OF

MICHIGAN.

IT MAY BE THAT THE SUBTROPICAL PERTURBATION CONTRIBUTES TO A

DISTINCT NEW CLUSTER OF STORMS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE ONGOING

ACTIVITY...WHERE UNINTERRUPTED INFLOW OF VERY MOIST AIR IN THE

PRESENCE OF SIZABLE CAPE AND MODEST SHEAR COULD PROVE FAVORABLE TO A

FORWARD/EASTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACROSS

NORTHERN WISCONSIN THIS EVENING...PERHAPS LOWER MICHIGAN OVERNIGHT.

OTHERWISE...LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION BENEATH LIGHT TO MODERATE

NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW COULD STILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL EVOLVING

CLUSTERS OF STORMS WITH RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS

LOWER MICHIGAN INTO PARTS OF THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC

COAST STATES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

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I'm up in the Catskills and we have thunderstorms popping up east northeast and well west of us I'm in near Woodridge, I'll let you know if there is anything special up her this evening because it seems to be headed to the city a few hours after us. It's around 80 here btw. High of 86f. Elevation 1,470 ft.

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Hm. MLCAPE is starting to go down the crapper from NYC on east; but bulk shear is increasing on a SE flow aloft for eastern locations of NYC. And convergence mixing ratios are increasing. I still have a temp/dewpoint of 94/68 in coastal Brooklyn. Let's see if any outflow boundaries from the storms can interact with this environment.

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It sure is. I can see it to my NE from here in Nassau.

Nice cumulonimbus clouds. Thanks for posting. The thunderstorm cells have been sliding from the NW to SE and to the east of NYC so far today. Lets watch and see if this holds up for NYC this evening for the fireworks.

Happy 4th!

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Looks like that cell will hit the same spot twice today?

close this looks like two to three cells now, so its gonna be a litle more wide spread

the 00z-3z call is looking good, and we still have stuff up in VT and Albany that may clip some areas

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