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JULY 2012 Severe Weather /Convection Discussion


NEG NAO

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seabreeze front beginning to show up on radar along the length of the jersey coast - lets see if anything begins to pop in the next few hours - thats been one of the triggers the last couple of weeks.......

http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0..

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have a feeling once these storms develop and start moving southeast they may not lose much steam at all as they impact the coastal areas

that will depend more on shear than anything else, will they choke themselves off like they have the past few rounds.

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Updraft just north of Newburgh looks like it wants to be first to the party.

Slightly OT, but check out the radar out of Duluth, MN. Pretty awesome structure.

http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes

yea the atmosphere should be getting going within the next couple hours, and your right that storm on GRanalyst in duluth,mn is amazing. its producing alot of hail

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That cell is going to go right over my house and isn't dying so lets see what it has

had a nice gust of wind already out ahead of it.

keep us posted. im really hoping this thing will hold some steam when it reaches me on the south shore of long island. btw 1 inch hail marker with that storm

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Would Bulk Richardson numbers be indicative of anything in this scenario?  They're crazy at the coast.

EDIT: CAPE and shear are lackluster at the coast though, so I would think not?

The MLCAPE and SBCAPE are fine. It's the mid-level lapse rates and the lifted index that are kind of poor. Effective shear is meager for the entire area except for a 35-kt. blob right off the Nassau country coastline.

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i think this may be it for the storms for today looks like. nothing else really going on after this storm in our vicinity

stop. Everything was progeed for 00z and beyond. This was only an initial cell. Look at all the stuff over NY state coming south, thats gonna be here right on time.

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0455 PM	 TSTM WND DMG	 GREENWICH			   41.03N  73.63W
07/04/2012				   FAIRFIELD		  CT   LAW ENFORCEMENT

		TREES DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF MERRITT PARKWAY
		BETWEEN EXITS 31 AND 32

not surprised, i barely missed the cell and had good gusts to at least 30 here.

Plus, the merrit has a lot of trees barely holding on from the 2010 storm, irene, and the october snow bomb. It's not hard to knock a few down.

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stop. Everything was progeed for 00z and beyond. This was only an initial cell. Look at all the stuff over NY state coming south, thats gonna be here right on time.

i wasnt really seriously meaning that just making a statement saying that there was no storms behind it in the general vicinity. how did you do with the storm trials?

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