NEG NAO Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 seabreeze front beginning to show up on radar along the length of the jersey coast - lets see if anything begins to pop in the next few hours - thats been one of the triggers the last couple of weeks....... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?num=6&delay=15&scale=1.00&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&showstorms=0&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Watch the next few hours over the Hudson Valley/CT. Where CU is building and MLCAPES are already between 2000-3000 J/kg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 have a feeling once these storms develop and start moving southeast they may not lose much steam at all as they impact the coastal areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 have a feeling once these storms develop and start moving southeast they may not lose much steam at all as they impact the coastal areas that will depend more on shear than anything else, will they choke themselves off like they have the past few rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Updraft just north of Newburgh looks like it wants to be first to the party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Slightly OT, but check out the radar out of Duluth, MN. Pretty awesome structure. http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=DLH&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Updraft just north of Newburgh looks like it wants to be first to the party. Slightly OT, but check out the radar out of Duluth, MN. Pretty awesome structure. http://radar.weather...101111&loop=yes yea the atmosphere should be getting going within the next couple hours, and your right that storm on GRanalyst in duluth,mn is amazing. its producing alot of hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 upton dropped us to 20%/slight chance of seeing anything yea the atmosphere should be getting going within the next couple hours, and your right that storm on GRanalyst in duluth,mn is amazing. its producing alot of hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 upton dropped us to 20%/slight chance of seeing anything i can tell you right now that cell near mt. cisco is starting to take on a bow echo characteristic and may go severe warned in 30 minutes or less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i can tell you right now that cell near mt. cisco is starting to take on a bow echo characteristic and may go severe warned in 30 minutes or less that isn't a bow echo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 that isn't a bow echo. oops my mistake cellular i was too involved in eating my burger to notice haha. looks like its getting more organized though. what do you think so far about storm chances so far trials? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonClaw Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Would Bulk Richardson numbers be indicative of anything in this scenario? They're crazy at the coast. EDIT: CAPE and shear are lackluster at the coast though, so I would think not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 That cell is going to go right over my house and isn't dying so lets see what it has had a nice gust of wind already out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 That cell is going to go right over my house and isn't dying so lets see what it has had a nice gust of wind already out ahead of it. keep us posted. im really hoping this thing will hold some steam when it reaches me on the south shore of long island. btw 1 inch hail marker with that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Would Bulk Richardson numbers be indicative of anything in this scenario? They're crazy at the coast. EDIT: CAPE and shear are lackluster at the coast though, so I would think not? The MLCAPE and SBCAPE are fine. It's the mid-level lapse rates and the lifted index that are kind of poor. Effective shear is meager for the entire area except for a 35-kt. blob right off the Nassau country coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 severe warned now, lets see what she does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 looks like the hail is right on the ct/ny border right near new canaan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Pretty good hail core showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 latest scan of that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 That is just my guess, but from my experience, it seems that we do not fare very well with severe storms if we do not get initiation or towering cumulus clouds before 1:30 PM. Today, that happened at least 2-and-a-half hours late. I hope this does not affect our chances later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Good sign things can pop later, best stuff should be 00-03z, and look at the radar over upstate NY, wonder if that is the main show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 andddd its dying as its about to get to long island, what a surprise....not lol....how was the storm trials? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 andddd its dying as its about to get to long island, what a surprise....not lol....how was the storm trials? Lol You sound like you are shocked. We never see any severe weather here on the island. Winters suck as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Lol You sound like you are shocked. We never see any severe weather here on the island. Winters suck as well. Huh? Long Island has received at least 6 severe reports this year. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/monthly/states.php?month=00&year=2012&state=NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 0455 PM TSTM WND DMG GREENWICH 41.03N 73.63W 07/04/2012 FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF MERRITT PARKWAY BETWEEN EXITS 31 AND 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i think this may be it for the storms for today looks like. nothing else really going on after this storm in our vicinity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 You can see the outflow boundary and sea breeze boundary colliding over northern Nassau county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i think this may be it for the storms for today looks like. nothing else really going on after this storm in our vicinity stop. Everything was progeed for 00z and beyond. This was only an initial cell. Look at all the stuff over NY state coming south, thats gonna be here right on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 0455 PM TSTM WND DMG GREENWICH 41.03N 73.63W 07/04/2012 FAIRFIELD CT LAW ENFORCEMENT TREES DOWN BLOCKING BOTH LANES OF MERRITT PARKWAY BETWEEN EXITS 31 AND 32 not surprised, i barely missed the cell and had good gusts to at least 30 here. Plus, the merrit has a lot of trees barely holding on from the 2010 storm, irene, and the october snow bomb. It's not hard to knock a few down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 stop. Everything was progeed for 00z and beyond. This was only an initial cell. Look at all the stuff over NY state coming south, thats gonna be here right on time. i wasnt really seriously meaning that just making a statement saying that there was no storms behind it in the general vicinity. how did you do with the storm trials? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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