NEG NAO Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Radar is looking kind of anemic at 3:30 a.m. as any severe threat for tonight is now very unlikely along with any significant rainfall from showers - still the possiblity of a few showers in the next several hours - should be plenty of cloud cover also - chance of any T -storms later in the day is yet to be determined........... http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=1.000&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=0&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=1.000¢erx=400¢ery=240&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 RAP KLGA forecast sounding for 20Z July 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Some showers here now, nothing heavy. FWIW NAM has nothing at all later today and the RAP even has very little other than north of town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The last few runs of the 4kM NAM, SPC WRF and HRRR, have isolated or scattered showers and t-storms around this afternoon and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 * AT 708 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER JUST OFF SEASIDE HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS. * THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 720 AM EDT... WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM AT 730 AM EDT... COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 730 AM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The last few runs of the 4kM NAM, SPC WRF and HRRR, have isolated or scattered showers and t-storms around this afternoon and evening. Pretty sure the HRRR had storms over us this morning...the light rain should be tapering off shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 just a quick shower this morning and its pretty uncertain about showers this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 just a quick shower this morning and its pretty uncertain about showers this afternoon agree very uncertain - problem with this is some folks might be caught off guard outside as more then likely there are going to be cells that pop up very fast as has been the pattern the last few weeks with these storms and sea breeze fronts will more then likely be the trigger in areas closer to the metro and coast .....................we got the early clearing so keep your radars handy........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 NAM has another round of storms moving through later on. The models have been HORRIBLE handling the last few events. HUGE bust this morning as the NAM as of yesterday morning had a MCS moving through...local Mets said goof chance of strong storms in the morning as did many on here...not even a rumble of thunder. I do think we get some storms later though but that's not too hard to predict on a hot and humid day in July. Srefs have been particularly poor handling these past few events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The 12z 4KM NAM has multicell cluster of storm forming over PA late this afternoon. There is a weak shortwave over Lake Erie that is already triggering some t-storms this morning. But I'm not sure far north this will really be: http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam4km/12zNAM4kmreflectivity.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The NAM has also flip flopped a ton past 24 hours. 6 am NAM had zero qpf after 9 am w no storms. RAP has been most accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The 12z 4KM NAM has multicell cluster of storm forming over PA late this afternoon. There is a weak shortwave over Lake Erie that is already triggering some t-storms this morning. But I'm not sure far north this will really be: http://raleighwx.ame...flectivity.html Check out the NAM sim radar posted by Bluewave yesterday around 5 pm...showed a big t-storm complex over us this morning...huge bust and the precip was way overdone. Models have been atrocious. SREFS had us getting nailed with MCS this past weekend and it slipped 200 miles to our south. SREFS also overdid precip for this morning by a ton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The models have been HORRIBLE handling the last few events. HUGE bust this morning as the NAM as of yesterday morning had a MCS moving through...local Mets said goof chance of strong storms in the morning as did many on here...not even a rumble of thunder. I do think we get some storms later though but that's not too hard to predict on a hot and humid day in July. Srefs have been particularly poor handling these past few events. The NAM did very well yesterday. The strong cells verified a little further south over the Jersey Shore with the early marine warnings. The whole area saw rain with some embedded heavier convection. No one was ever talking about a big severe threat since the instability parameters were marginal at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The NAM did very well yesterday. The strong cells verified a little further south over the Jersey Shore with the early marine warnings. The whole area saw rain with some embedded heavier convection. No one was ever talking about a big severe threat since the instability parameters were marginal at best. NAM did very well? With all due respect, since you are a great poster, what you posted at 5 pm covered the area in yellow, when it was light rain, JFK recorded .04 of rain...sorry man, disagree. I never said severe threat, i said storm threat. Local radio mets on 880 and 1010 were very bullish calling for strong storms "especially in the morning" starting late evening... Also, the RAP has that big cluster in NE Penn slipping due south and missing the area entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The soundings are meh today. Cape is fine as is instability, but the TT's not cracking 50 and the sweat being rather low is a good indication severe is not in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The soundings are heh today. Cape is fine as is instability, but the TT's not cracking 50 and the sweat being rather low is a good indication severe is not in the cards. I do think we see some passing showers/thundershowers around 6-8 this evening slipping south from CT/Hudson valley though, hopefully out by 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 NAM did very well? With all due respect, since you are a great poster, what you posted at 5 pm covered the area in yellow, when it was light rain, JFK recorded .04 of rain...sorry man, disagree. I never said severe threat, i said storm threat. Local radio mets on 880 and 1010 were very bullish calling for strong storms "especially in the morning" starting late evening... Also, the RAP has that big cluster in NE Penn slipping due south and missing the area entirely. How can you call a bust on mesoscale model that misses by 30-35 miles from 18hrs out. You have to look at the general storm signal not the exact depiction when convection is involved. If you were a boater looking at the NAM You would have delayed going out until the storms passed. * AT 708 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER JUST OFF SEASIDE HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS. * THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 720 AM EDT... WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM AT 730 AM EDT... COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 730 AM EDT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 How can you call a bust on mesoscale model that misses by 30-35 miles from 18hrs out. You have to look at the general storm signal not the exact depiction when convection is involved. If you were a boater looking at the NAM You would have delayed going out until the storms passed. * AT 708 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A THUNDERSTORM...PRODUCING STRONG WINDS 34 KNOTS OR GREATER JUST OFF SEASIDE HEIGHTS...MOVING EAST AT 35 KNOTS. * THIS STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR COASTAL WATERS FROM MANASQUAN INLET TO LITTLE EGG INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 720 AM EDT... WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FENWICK ISLAND DE FROM 20 TO 40 NM AT 730 AM EDT... COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM AT 730 AM EDT... Hey, i did say with all due respect...and yes there were a few storms over the Atlantic. My point was not to rely on the NAM sim radar too much as it is not accurate pin pointing the location of storms lately...thats it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Hey, i did say with all due respect...and yes there were a few storms over the Atlantic. My point was not to rely on the NAM sim radar too much as it is not accurate pin pointing the location of storms lately...thats it. For me it's good enough just to have the SIM radar firing convection near the region and then have the storms verify even if they are off by 30-40 miles or so. You really rely on radar trends anyway once the storms come into range. The NAM QPF can really get thrown off for absolute amounts when convection is involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Big question mark for today is will this survive and start interacting with any sea breeze fronts that develop??? http://www.accuweath...radar?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Big question mark for today is will this survive and start interacting with any sea breeze fronts that develop??? http://www.accuweath...radar?play=true RAP has that feature dropping well south west of the area. Any storms we get will develop in hudson valley and ct and drop se. Imho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 00Z SPC WRF is prety active for long island and jersey below NYC, maybe a sneaky cell in southern westchester Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 00Z SPC WRF is prety active for long island and jersey below NYC, maybe a sneaky cell in southern westchester We could see some cells dropping down with a decent jet around 700 mb ahead of the stronger 500 mb winds to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 So what are we thinking. Storms firing between 6 and 9? Out by 9...thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 So what are we thinking. Storms firing between 6 and 9? Out by 9...thoughts? right now id say for areas near or on the coast of ct. and long island to be on the lookout for storms after 4-5. other than that its a waiting game to see what can come together to do what Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i think the storms fire AFTER most bbq's tonight, between 23 and 03z, the instability parameters improve around that time too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The 12z SPC WRF has widespread activity around 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 The 12z SPC WRF has widespread activity around 00z what time is that for? haha jk looks like long island is gonna do good today and coastal areas. looks like it right earthlight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 isnt that the precip john? looks a little weaker with the reflectivity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 isnt that the precip john? looks a little weaker with the reflectivity It doesn't really matter, either way it's showing some fairly widespread activity. The precipitation amounts are pretty good for 1 hr totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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