NEG NAO Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 SPC HAS THE REGION IN A 5 PERCENT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY JULY 1st - more storms possible mid week -discuss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The 00z NAM isn't the first model to show the potential MCS activity late Wednesday, but now that it's beginning to come into its range...we should begin to see some interesting solutions. .MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD. SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Where the cold front interacts with sea-breeze boundaries today, is where we could decent convection fire today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Where the cold front interacts with sea-breeze boundaries today, is where we could decent convection fire today. for sure, by the 1-2 this afternoom we should have an idea of where some storms develop in the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The 00z NAM isn't the first model to show the potential MCS activity late Wednesday, but now that it's beginning to come into its range...we should begin to see some interesting solutions. .MODEL CONSENSUS IS THAT UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NWD. SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW OF WHICH COULD BE SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE FROM THE NRN PLAINS...GREAT LAKES AND SEWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC AND SERN STATES. i think this setup does impact areas north of the mid atlantic but hopefully doesnt go too far north and miss us the other direction lol.....also how strong would thid be compared to the derecho that hit the mid atlantic would be the big question as we get closer to the event tommorow and tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Forecast soundings indicate that any of the scattered storms that do develop later will have a shot at going severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Forecast soundings indicate that any of the scattered storms that do develop later will have a shot a going severe. definitely lame! Please not today, been planning this bbq for 2 weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Hopefully some good storms today and I pefer Thurday instead of 4th of July because I got some big plans and plus I will be on Long Island on the 4th in a Anti-Thunderstorm location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 north shore of strong Island should see come good storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Hopefully some good storms today and I pefer Thurday instead of 4th of July because I got some big plans and plus I will be on Long Island on the 4th in a Anti-Thunderstorm location. wow thanks, wish for storms when i have plans, but not when you have plans, not cool. Trials, why do you think north shore of the island in particular? or just saying that to piss me off... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunderdude Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 north shore of strong Island should see come good storms today. How about NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 wow thanks, wish for storms when i have plans, but not when you have plans, not cool. Trials, why do you think north shore of the island in particular? or just saying that to piss me off... north shore has a better chance of seeing more organized storms than the south shore. you'll have less seabreeze influence for one thats for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 north shore has a better chance of seeing more organized storms than the south shore. you'll have less seabreeze influence for one thats for sure yea, i am more mid-island anyway and Upton only has slight chance of storms, 20% so doesnt seem to be a major deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 yea, i am more mid-island anyway and Upton only has slight chance of storms, 20% so doesnt seem to be a major deal today isnt gonna be that widespread, so 20% does sound fair. whatever storms do develop def could go severe though, wednesday/thursday is the time period to watch for an MCS possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1332.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1332 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1111 AM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...THE NORTHEAST/UPPER MID-ATLANTIC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 011611Z - 011715Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM THIS AFTERNOON WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. AREA WILL BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK WITH THE 1630Z D1 OUTLOOK AND WATCH ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. DISCUSSION...CU HAS INITIATED ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SRN NY INTO CNTRL PA ALONG A WEAK LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE BENEATH THE INFLUENCE OF SUBTLE UPPER-LEVEL IMPULSES CROSSING THE LOWER GREAT LAKES. 12Z OPERATIONAL GUIDANCE ALONG WITH RECENT HRRR RUNS HAVE A PRONOUNCED SIGNAL FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...LEADING TO INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT POTENTIALLY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD FORM CENTERED TOWARDS THE HUDSON VALLEY. SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WITH DEW POINTS HOLDING IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S...WHICH IS YIELDING MODERATE BUOYANCY /INCREASING WITH SRN EXTENT/ PER MODIFIED 12Z IAD/OKX RAOBS. MODERATELY STRONG NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZING UPDRAFTS WITH THREATS OF SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. ..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 07/01/2012 ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...LWX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa..../md/md1332.html that def a reasonable forecast considering that the cape is pretty high and the instability is also high, a trigger and we'll be in business in a few hours it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 The HRRR which the MCD mentioned, also shows t-storms blowing along south shore of LI by 21z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 just downloaded my trial version of gr2analyst, i cannot wait to try this out today. if i like it im buying my license for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 cell in dutchess county has signature of almost 1 inch hail already. its just south of kingston, that thing got going fast! edit: storm is now severe warned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 decent sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 decent sounding yes it is we just need these storms to fire. one already fired about 20 minutes ago in dutchess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 @JimCantore: Good Lord!! #Chicago has a #SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 100 mph winds. SERIOUSLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CHICAGO !! #ilwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 @JimCantore: Good Lord!! #Chicago has a #SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR 100 mph winds. SERIOUSLY DANGEROUS SITUATION FOR CHICAGO !! #ilwx also got large hail up to 1.5 inches also edit: 2.2 inch hail now reported as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0444.html BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 444 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 444 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS CTC001-003-005-007-009-011-013-015-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0444.120701T1735Z-120702T0000Z/ CT . CONNECTICUT COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE FAIRFIELD HARTFORD LITCHFIELD MIDDLESEX NEW HAVEN NEW LONDON TOLLAND WINDHAM NJC003-013-017-019-021-023-025-027-031-035-037-039-041-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0444.120701T1735Z-120702T0000Z/ NJ . NEW JERSEY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERGEN ESSEX HUDSON HUNTERDON MERCER MIDDLESEX MONMOUTH MORRIS PASSAIC SOMERSET SUSSEX UNION WARREN NYC005-027-047-059-061-071-079-081-085-087-103-111-119-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0444.120701T1735Z-120702T0000Z/ NY . NEW YORK COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BRONX DUTCHESS KINGS NASSAU NEW YORK ORANGE PUTNAM QUEENS RICHMOND ROCKLAND SUFFOLK ULSTER WESTCHESTER PAC011-017-025-077-089-091-095-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0444.120701T1735Z-120702T0000Z/ PA . PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE BERKS BUCKS CARBON LEHIGH MONROE MONTGOMERY NORTHAMPTON ANZ330-335-338-340-345-350-353-355-450-020000- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0444.120701T1735Z-120702T0000Z/ CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LONG ISLAND SOUND EAST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY LONG ISLAND SOUND WEST OF NEW HAVEN CT/PORT JEFFERSON NY NEW YORK HARBOR PECONIC AND GARDINERS BAYS SOUTH SHORE BAYS FROM JONES INLET THROUGH SHINNECOCK BAY MORICHES INLET NY TO MONTAUK POINT NY OUT 20 NM FIRE ISLAND INLET NY TO MORICHES INLET NY OUT 20 NM SANDY HOOK NJ TO FIRE ISLAND INLET NY OUT 20 NM COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK TO MANASQUAN INLET NJ OUT 20 NM ATTN...WFO...OKX...PHI...ALY...BOX... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 also that storm near chicago, just passing wheaton is also spiking past 50,000 feet. its off the scale on my gr2analyst right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cells popping near Hartford, part of the same cumulus that came out of eastern NY. Still just high whispy clouds right now on the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 Cells popping near Hartford, part of the same cumulus that came out of eastern NY. Still just high whispy clouds right now on the CT coast. same here i just hope these storms just dont stay to our north the entire day. it would be an egg in face if in three days we miss north and south of us when these cells develop there getting going fast as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 1" size hail reported in Dutchess 0130 PM HAIL CLINTON CORNERS 41.83N 73.76W 07/01/2012 M1.00 INCH DUTCHESS NY PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 1, 2012 Share Posted July 1, 2012 1" size hail reported in Dutchess 0130 PM HAIL CLINTON CORNERS 41.83N 73.76W 07/01/2012 M1.00 INCH DUTCHESS NY PUBLIC have a feeling also in the next few scans there gonna be a line developing as some showers/storms are developing to the northeast as well adjacent to the storm edit: just had two cells now merging into line with cell coming out of dutchess into conneticut nearly 2 inch inch hail now in dutchess county, line is getting better organized now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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