NYCSuburbs Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 My site, which is 2 miles from EWR, and what the state climatologist called the best sited station in NJ, was 90 tuesday, 94 yesterday, and 97 today. Nothing is off with Newark, just ***holes that are jealous that their station didn't get one or two degrees higher. As I posted in the banter thread Newark wasn't the hot spot for 15/30 days in June, and in a large portion of the other 15 days Newark was either tied as the hottest station or was warmer by barely 1-2 degrees than the 2nd warmest station. If it was just the airport that's off, many of the surrounding OBS would be at least 3-5 degrees cooler almost every day. Before this hot period started Newark's temps easily fit in with the rest of the stations around NYC/N NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Anyone know what happened with the Montgomery, Orange County OBS? The last observation from that airport on NWS is from 6/25. Yeah, it's not working, no idea why. There's nothing going on here anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Even higher temperatures in the forecast for Thursday. PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 1234 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 /134 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012/ ...TRIPLE DIGITS REACHED AGAIN IN CHICAGO... AS OF 1230 PM...CHICAGO-OHARE AND DOWNTOWN CHICAGO/NORTHERLY ISLAND BOTH REACHED 100 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE IS 102 DEGREES SET IN 1911. THIS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST BEING TIED AT CHICAGO-OHARE...THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR CHICAGO...AND A RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS OCCURS. THIS IS THE SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF 2012...MAKING 2012 THE FIRST YEAR SINCE 1995 WITH 2 OR MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS IN CHICAGO. Wow...and at the same time Phoenix had their coolest July 4th in 100 years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 not that strange they hit 90 on Monday. I hit 88 and thats with lots of open grass. for me 92 yesterday and 94 today, tomorrow will officially mark the third heatwave Yeah I hit 88F as well on Monday, in a wide open area. Actually surprised EWR wasn't higher than 90, as I'm usually at least 3 degrees cooler than them. Very warm, summery night tonight. Temps in the 80s, feeling tropical, T-storms in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 0z NAM jumped on board with the ECM's hot solution for Saturday. GFS also noticeably backed away from quickly bringing the front through. Still some uncertainty with cloud cover and the exact timing of the front, but as long as the front's slower and there's enough sunshine, Saturday may be our best chance yet for 100 degree heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 just witnessed an impressive hour of continuous heat lightning. easily in excess of a flash per second for about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 the Summer is shaping up to be a classic with plenty of 90+ days...I think the heat will peak around the 21st with possible 100 degree heat in the park...I also think it will be the third straight July that averaged 80.0 or higher...there has never been three in a row...The closest is 1993-95 with an 80 and two 79's... Maybe not...June was just a break even month and most of the rest of record has yet to be written...Summer 2010 was unbearably hot; last year's, while warm and long, was noticeably more tolerable....and so far we are actually behind last year's pace when it comes to average temps since June 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The 0z Euro has 850mb temps in the 24-26C range at 21z Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Maybe not...June was just a break even month and most of the rest of record has yet to be written...Summer 2010 was unbearably hot; last year's, while warm and long, was noticeably more tolerable....and so far we are actually behind last year's pace when it comes to average temps since June 1. last year was hot in July but cooled considerably in August, I thought last years summer just petered out with alot of cloudy showers in August this summer appears to be more on the up and up but hopefully it stays that way instead of turning like last year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The most 95 degree or higher days at Newark by July 4th since 1988. 2012...8 1993...6 1988...6 2010...5 1994...5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The most 95 degree or higher days at Newark by July 4th since 1988. 2012...8 1993...6 1988...6 2010...5 1994...5 good stat...and some are saying wait wait it hasnt been hot because June was normal. Its been VERY hot guys over the last 3 weeks, we are in our THIRD heatwave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 good stat...and some are saying wait wait it hasnt been hot because June was normal. Its been VERY hot guys over the last 3 weeks, we are in our THIRD heatwave Check the 90 degree days thread. We are ahead of last year and not terribly off 2010. That w. atlantic ridge builds back by middle of next week, looks like a 2 - 3 day return to normal mon - tue/wed then above on a more tropical fow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The most 95 degree or higher days at Newark by July 4th since 1988. 2012...8 1993...6 1988...6 2010...5 1994...5 meanwhile the park hasnt passed 93 degrees yet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The 0z Euro has 850mb temps in the 24-26C range at 21z Saturday. easily the hottest day of the summer so far... +24 at h85 is just brutal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think most everyone thought july would be the warmest (compared to average) of the 3 summer months. I believe the last 10 days of july will be near to slightly below normal and august will be close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I think most everyone thought july would be the warmest (compared to average) of the 3 summer months. I believe the last 10 days of july will be near to slightly below normal and august will be close to normal. W. Atlantic ridge looks to buid west and hold. I can see increases rain/storm chances as fronts may have a tendency to get hung up. That may be the only chance to keep temps down clouds/stormy days. Suspect mins are way up and when its sunny we'll rid the low 90s range (maybe not the park)... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 W. Atlantic ridge looks to buid west and hold. I can see increases rain/storm chances as fronts may have a tendency to get hung up. That may be the only chance to keep temps down clouds/stormy days. Suspect mins are way up and when its sunny we'll rid the low 90s range (maybe not the park)... In late july in many areas the average high is in the upper 80's so I doubt we'll be much above that. I do agree if we stay dry we will be above normal, July 2010 and 2011 were both around 4 above normal, I don't think we go that much above no matter what. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 W. Atlantic ridge looks to buid west and hold. I can see increases rain/storm chances as fronts may have a tendency to get hung up. That may be the only chance to keep temps down clouds/stormy days. Suspect mins are way up and when its sunny we'll rid the low 90s range (maybe not the park)... we are going to roast... watch it build west after the trof lifts out with another pulse toward the end of the run http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ENSHGTAVGNH_0z/ensloopmref.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 9AM Roundup Vis sat showing some clouds from storms in OH pushing into W PA fmay get here between 4 and 5. Otherwise another 90+ in progress. TEB: 87 NYC: 83 EWR: 88 LGA: 84 JFK: 87 ISP: 83 BLM: 86 TTN: 83 ACY: 86 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Interesting stats from the Chicago AFD on the record heat building eastward. A couple of days after Chicago made it to 104 in July of 1995 Newark hit 104 also. So will see what Chicago's max will be the next few days and how close Newark gets on Saturday. http://www.wundergro...ityName=Chicago The strong and strengthening upper ridge will provide for a couple more days of intense record breaking heat. European model (ecmwf)/WRF-NAM both indicate that 925mb temperatures will warm between 1-2.5c this afternoon compared with Wednesday PM with similar if not a hair warmer conditions on Friday. Using the North American reanalysis data to calculate a composite average for all previous days 103f or higher in Chicago indicates that 925mb temperatures average around 30c. Interestingly the WRF-NAM and European model (ecmwf) both have 925mb temperatures peaking between 31-33c both today and Friday. So all indications we could see highs a couple/few degrees hotter today and Friday than they were Wednesday...which puts Chicago precariously close to our all time record high of 105 degrees. Dewpoint forecasts are very tricky as evapotranspiration from extensive corn fields is resulting in highly variable dewpoints across the area...with lower dewpoints and higher temperatures in urban areas. Does appears as though dewpoints could end up being higher on Friday afternoon with some moisture pooling along the approaching weak front. Maximum heat indices today should generally end up between 106 and 113...potentially climbing to 110 to 117 Friday assuming dewpoints do indeed increase as forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Beyond 2 weeks it's anyone's guess but given the sun's stength and all the others factors discussed here if we don't have a more stormy pattern emerge we could be in for some big time heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The most 95 degree or higher days at Newark by July 4th since 1988. 2012...8 1993...6 1988...6 2010...5 1994...5 1963 had five...1966 had five...four of them 100 or better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Dry day in NYC, NE NJ and Western LI yesterday made for a pleasant 4th and great conditions for Phish concert at jones beach again. Saw the lightning from that storm which drifted down from Westchester around 1030, thought it was going to be close to slamming jones beach but it made a hard right turn and then died out in western suffolk. Again, while models did indicate some rain for the area last night, they were generally pretty poor as 60% of the area received no rain after the light showers in the morning. It is obviously hard to predict where isolated showers develop, but even the HRRR had storms sweeping the entire area, which in fact missed all of NYC, NE NJ and Western LI. Partial Bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 1963 had five...1966 had five...four of them 100 or better... It looks like most of those Julys had an average temperature at Central Park of 79 degrees or higher except for 1963. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The 0z Euro has 850mb temps in the 24-26C range at 21z Saturday. It's also the hottest run yet... tiny area of 104 degrees popped up NE of Trenton on the free ECM temp map. It's also the first time this year that its heat index map (which underestimated HI values in the 6/21-23 heat wave) has 102+ degrees into NYC. The temperature rise in the morning also supports the 100+ degree potential for some, with tems already approaching 97 degrees by 15z. A little OT but does anyone know a good site to buy access to the detailed ECM data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 It looks like most of those Julys had an average temperature at Central Park of 79 degrees or higher except for 1963. 1963 had four extreme heat waves starting the last week of June and ending the last week of July...It also had some record cold around the second week...The four heat waves peaked at...96 98 97 98...1966 had heat waves that peaked at 101 103 101...1953 had three heat waves that reached 100...1955 is the leader in the department... Extreme heat days 95 or higher in Central Park.... 16 in 1955 13 in 1988 12 in 1953 12 in 1993 12 in 1999 12 in 2002 10 in 1944 10 in 1980 9.. in 2005 9.. in 1983 9.. in 1966 8.. in 1963 8.. in 1991 8.. in 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Dry day in NYC, NE NJ and Western LI yesterday made for a pleasant 4th and great conditions for Phish concert at jones beach again. Saw the lightning from that storm which drifted down from Westchester around 1030, thought it was going to be close to slamming jones beach but it made a hard right turn and then died out in western suffolk. Again, while models did indicate some rain for the area last night, they were generally pretty poor as 60% of the area received no rain after the light showers in the morning. It is obviously hard to predict where isolated showers develop, but even the HRRR had storms sweeping the entire area, which in fact missed all of NYC, NE NJ and Western LI. Partial Bust Sometimes we get lucky and a SPC WRF or even the NAM 4km lines up almost exactly. We saw the SPC WRF hit several cells since late June pretty much down to the mile. Even on days when the convection is not lined up exactly like the last few, the models are generally correct that convection will occur somewhere within say 25-50 miles of a point like NYC. We seem to have fewer days since the model upgrades when the NAM has 0 QPF near the region and a big storm verifies. The other end seems to be ok also with us usually getting some storms locally even if the convection is overdone in the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 As expected the NAM moved to the Euro idea of a slower frontal passage and more heating on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 As expected the NAM moved to the Euro idea of a slower frontal passage and more heating on Saturday. NAM maps on InstantWeatherMaps also show a heat index of 105 degrees. At this rate Upton may need an Excessive Heat Warning for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zir0b Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 +25C 850s, wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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