psv88 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 After reading Upton's disco looks like a stormy period right through saturday, a break sunday-monday, then more storms. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Outside chance of records Thu. pending cloud cover/storms... 7/26: NYC: 98 (1940) EWR: 99 (2005) LGA: 97 (2005) JFK: 94 (1982) TTN: 98 (1940, 2005) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 well today will be the kick in the balls to a potential heatwave. Not likely to hit 90 after hitting 92 and 94 the last two days but Thursday and Friday 90s look likely so we will have 4 out of 5 days in the 90s...so officially not a heatwave but thats a pretty good stretch of hot weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 25, 2012 Author Share Posted July 25, 2012 well today will be the kick in the balls to a potential heatwave. Not likely to hit 90 after hitting 92 and 94 the last two days but Thursday and Friday 90s look likely so we will have 4 out of 5 days in the 90s...so officially not a heatwave but thats a pretty good stretch of hot weather. Overall so far Newark has had 22 90 degree days in 2012 - last year through the 25th they had 23 . Last year Newark had a total of 31 -- 90 degree days - last year august started out hot then we began a cooler monsoon type pattern that ended with a monthly all time record rainfall. Question now is will something similar happen although not as extreme in August this year.? Maybe not since the thinking is that the developing El Nino is going to limit the amount of tropical activity this year - BUT it only takes one storm up the east coast to produce above average rainfall for the month.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 another stunning day today. Reminds me of a warmer day in Southern California area. Temps in the mid 80s with bright sunshineand low humidity. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-E4FRtrD9aQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Beautiful morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 74/55 and gorgeous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NYC is averaging 79.8 since June 29th...It doesn't look like the 30 day average will get to 80.0 by the 28th...the average for this stat is around 78.0 since 1930...The last two years averaged over 80.0...2000 had the lowest average...72.7...1980 the highest...82.5... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NYC is averaging 79.8 since June 29th...It doesn't look like the 30 day average will get to 80.0 by the 28th...the average for this stat is around 78.0 since 1930...The last two years averaged over 80.0...2000 had the lowest average...72.7...1980 the highest...82.5... Yeah, it's been a very warm month but nothing impressive. I have a +1.2 temp departure for July so far. July of 2010 was +2.7 here, but obviously that's like comparing a 40" winter to the 1995-96 winter. The summer of 2010 was epic for heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Overall so far Newark has had 22 90 degree days in 2012 - last year through the 25th they had 23 . Last year Newark had a total of 31 -- 90 degree days - last year august started out hot then we began a cooler monsoon type pattern that ended with a monthly all time record rainfall. Question now is will something similar happen although not as extreme in August this year.? Maybe not since the thinking is that the developing El Nino is going to limit the amount of tropical activity this year - BUT it only takes one storm up the east coast to produce above average rainfall for the month.... Going into August here is a look how the analogs we've been tracking this summer progressed into August. Will the warmer years (2002, 2006, 1953) continue to lead the pack? 2006: Featured early month record heat with multiple 100 degree readings. The heat eased up by the second week of August with only scattered 90 degree readings after the 8th. As a whole the month finished between 1 and 2 above normal for the area. At EWR there were 9 90(+) days. The month remained drier than normal. 2002: Was very hot through the 20th. A streak of 10 straight 90 + days at EWR between the 10th and 19th as well as 14 of 19 days above 90. The month turned drastically cooler the last 10 days leading up to a wet and cool September. The month still finished +2 in the area. due to the torch the first 3 weeks. 1953: August opened generally near normal through the first 3 1/2 weeks. Then came a record late season heat wave between Aug 24th and Sept 5th. Interestingly the heat this year has somewhat mimicked 1953 including the records in late June, early/mid July. Longer range guidance is indicating that August could start off humid and potentially wet - similar to 1953.... I started a discussion on August in the 'hot time summer in the city thread', which is quoted above, on how august may progress based on the stronger analogs weve been tracking this this summer so far. Most guidance shows a humid/potentially wet pattern from the 30th - 8/5 (into the start of August). Im sure we'll tack on some more 90s but prolonged and extreme heat look limited through that period as Western Atlantic ridge buids west with bermuda high taking form and tropical flow ensuing. Rockies ridge looks locked in place with tendency for troughing over the northeast. I think we may see a linkage and ridge pushing into the east in the 8/5 to 8/10 timeframe where heat could be sustained... beyond there it will be interesting if 2006, 2002 or 1953 continue to be good analogs with heat spikes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I started a discussion on August in the 'hot time summer in the city thread', which is quoted above, on how august may progress based on the stronger analogs weve been tracking this this summer so far. Most guidance shows a humid/potentially wet pattern from the 30th - 8/5 (into the start of August). Im sure we'll tack on some more 90s but prolonged and extreme heat look limited through that period as Western Atlantic ridge buids west with bermuda high taking form and tropical flow ensuing. Rockies ridge looks locked in place with tendency for troughing over the northeast. I think we may see a linkage and ridge pushing into the east in the 8/5 to 8/10 timeframe where heat could be sustained... beyond there it will be interesting if 2006, 2002 or 1953 continue to be good analogs with heat spikes... Agree - I think we'll be entering a warm/humid/wetter pattern with tropical flow. Probably high mins and not as frequent 90s, but above avg overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM still advertising mid to upper 90's for highs tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 NAM still advertising mid to upper 90's for highs tomorrow: I think like last Wed, if we stay sunny we'll break records. Looking at the sattelite the clouds and system over the Great Lakes could interfere with heating but those clouds and the warm front could stay north into New England, then its a matter of the timing with the afternoon cold front/storms. Either way it looks quite warm tomorrow. Fri too if we get into sun but the front looks to hang around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 wow-95 in White plains and 83 in Bridgeport.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Yeah, it's been a very warm month but nothing impressive. I have a +1.2 temp departure for July so far. July of 2010 was +2.7 here, but obviously that's like comparing a 40" winter to the 1995-96 winter. The summer of 2010 was epic for heat. I will have to disagree....its been a pretty hot month, as someone who works outside, its been hot alot this month...two spikes near 100, had a 11 straight days of 90 plus that started in June and tacking on another hot week this week. I would think I might be around +3.5-4.0 for the month. Thats hot...not the hottest but still impressive heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 I will have to disagree....its been a pretty hot month, as someone who works outside, its been hot alot this month...two spikes near 100, had a 11 straight days of 90 plus that started in June and tacking on another hot week this week. I would think I might be around +3.5-4.0 for the month. Thats hot...not the hottest but still impressive heat Agree its been hot... My station has 35 years of records and this July will probobly end up in the top 5 for heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 Agree its been hot... My station has 35 years of records and this July will probobly end up in the top 5 for heat. I've been working in the City this summer, and I agree it's been hot. I can scarcely recall using my AC at home in Westchester so many nights, though I wasn't living here for the torrid Summer of 2010 as I had a job in Montana and lived out west for 4 months. Central Park is +3.1 and Newark is +4.1, which is relatively impressive this late in the month with more warm days coming. The only below average day I see is potentially Sunday, when we could have showers in the area with 850s also cooling after tomorrow night's cold front. I disagree about heat in August, however. Both the ECM and GFS show some semblance of a vortex near Hudson Bay, probably caused by the NAO blocking, slowly sliding southward. Although we've seen some hot patterns with this regime in late summer due to fast flow underneath the upper low, I believe this time the vortex gets far enough south to cool down at least New England. Although the whole summer has had a strong gradient (St. Johnsbury VT is actually -1.0 for the July departure), I think the gradient becomes larger in August with more widespread cool anomalies in New England while DCA stays much warmer than average. I see NYC metro as a battleground with the Nino developing and that upper low perhaps migrating towards Southeast Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 25, 2012 Share Posted July 25, 2012 clouds moving in and the humidity. Was a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Another gem today. Made it to 87, late afternoon high, with dews in the low 50s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 clouds moving in and the humidity. Was a beautiful day. Drove from hoboken to Monroe a short while ago and it was much warmer, humid up in north jersey. Clouds coming in from th north and clouds from a system into OH/W-PA should keep the morning hours mostly cloudy. Thinking temps may fall below forecasts if this is the case. We'll have to see if we can clear by mid/late morning and allow several hours of heating before the front swings through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 06Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Clouds and storms in the way this morning but some quick clearing in progress. Temps will be under forecast but still hit 90 to the low 90s in most places. Staring from the mid and upper 70s at 11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 15Z Observations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Up to 82 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 windy outside, i would say 10-15 sustained with a few higher gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 The last several days of July look near to slightly above normal -- mid 80s for the Sat-Mon period, probably low 90s today and tomorrow. Medium to long term modelling wants to keep the resistance in the Northeast, especially the Euro w/ some troughiness. My thinking is the warm/humid pattern continues, but extreme heat may be hard to come by for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Upto 82 here quite warm and humid. We will fall short of the mid/upper 90s with the clouds earlier and partly cloudy conditions. Still think the major stations all touch 90 today. Agree with Iso on an overall warm/humid pattern into the first week of August. Maybe that 1953 analog is the better one to track with burst of heat late August/early sept. I do think we see WAR and Rockies ridge attempt to hook between the 5th and 10th with more prolonged heat possible then.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 Upto 82 here quite warm and humid. We will fall short of the mid/upper 90s with the clouds earlier and partly cloudy conditions. Still think the major stations all touch 90 today. Agree with Iso on an overall warm/humid pattern into the first week of August. Maybe that 1953 analog is the better one to track with burst of heat late August/early sept. I do think we see WAR and Rockies ridge attempt to hook between the 5th and 10th with more prolonged heat possible then.. yesterdays record low was set in 1953...August 1953 was cool until the last nine days of the month when 12 straight days 90 or higher came from the 24th to Sept. 4th...It hit 102 in early September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 2PM temps: NYC: 82 LGA: 85 JFK: 81 TEB: 85 EWR: 87 12z NAM is running 7-12 degrees too high areawide with its 12z run for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 26, 2012 Share Posted July 26, 2012 2PM temps: NYC: 82 LGA: 85 JFK: 81 TEB: 85 EWR: 87 12z NAM is running 7-12 degrees too high areawide with its 12z run for right now. yeah once i saw the sat images late last night it was apparent we'd be cloudy all morning and reduce highs. Mostly sunny now througout most of the area with temps rising and some spots near or at 90 alreadt. With what apears to be between 2 and 3 hours of sunshine ahead of us, temps will creep into the low and peraps mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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