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July 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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The D 10 Euro ensembles and GEFS are hinting that there will be a D 11-15 merger of the

West Atlantic and Plains Ridge after the D 6-10 trough lifts out.

Its been a consistent progression the last few days of guidance - the western atlantic ridge building west after a few days of 'troughing' into the northeast. Suspect between the 9th and 12th the is a break in the heat before warmer more tropical flow develops....

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yesterday i did a check of high temps in metro ne nj and most of them were within a degree of ewr's 91

I have been tracking LDJ (Linden) and its been within a degree of EWR reliably. Also track Carteret, Elizabeth, Union, Iron Bound, SI and all within and some warmer than EWR.

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After tonight's storm chance, looks like the next week is dry...sweet.

Clouds getting out of the way by mid morning. Temps should quickly rise into the 90s today. Some isolated storms later should be quick hitting and limited. I think most enjoy a rain free and quite summery fourth followed by some more high heat through the weekend/ peaking fri - sun.

post-299-0-13117400-1341401906_thumb.gif

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I think this coming 4-5 day period will be the hottest week of July. Mean ridge axis should retrograde wwd into the Rockies, with more room for troughiness into the Northeast. With that being said, given its July, average temps are still quite warm for this time of year. After this weekend IMO we'll be talking mostly 80s / moderate heat the rest of the month -- occasionally hotter, occasionally cooler. But as far as stretches of extreme heat, I don't see the PHL-NYC corridor getting another 3-5 day pulse of 95F weather for awhile.

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the Summer is shaping up to be a classic with plenty of 90+ days...I think the heat will peak around the 21st with possible 100 degree heat in the park...I also think it will be the third straight July that averaged 80.0 or higher...there has never been three in a row...The closest is 1993-95 with an 80 and two 79's...

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I think this coming 4-5 day period will be the hottest week of July. Mean ridge axis should retrograde wwd into the Rockies, with more room for troughiness into the Northeast. With that being said, given its July, average temps are still quite warm for this time of year. After this weekend IMO we'll be talking mostly 80s / moderate heat the rest of the month -- occasionally hotter, occasionally cooler. But as far as stretches of extreme heat, I don't see the PHL-NYC corridor getting another 3-5 day pulse of 95F weather for awhile.

of course it will cool down somewhat it cannot stay 95 forever but I definitely see another heatwave after this one in July and it very easily can be 95 plus

No one was expecting this heatwave to be so strong either

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of course it will cool down somewhat it cannot stay 95 forever but I definitely see another heatwave after this one in July and it very easily can be 95 plus

No one was expecting this heatwave to be so strong either

This is really the only heat wave that was as strong as advertised. It is July, so we'll get more hot weather (to my dismay), but I also wouldn't be surprised if the rest of the month is more normal overall.

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Even higher temperatures in the forecast for Thursday.

PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL

1234 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2012 /134 PM EDT WED JUL 4 2012/

...TRIPLE DIGITS REACHED AGAIN IN CHICAGO...

AS OF 1230 PM...CHICAGO-OHARE AND DOWNTOWN CHICAGO/NORTHERLY ISLAND

BOTH REACHED 100 DEGREES. THE RECORD HIGH FOR THE DATE IS 102

DEGREES SET IN 1911. THIS HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF AT LEAST BEING TIED

AT CHICAGO-OHARE...THE OFFICIAL CLIMATE SITE FOR CHICAGO...AND A

RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL BE ISSUED IF THIS OCCURS. THIS IS THE

SECOND 100 DEGREE DAY OF 2012...MAKING 2012 THE FIRST YEAR SINCE

1995 WITH 2 OR MORE 100 DEGREE DAYS IN CHICAGO.

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My site, which is 2 miles from EWR, and what the state climatologist called the best sited station in NJ, was 90 tuesday, 94 yesterday, and 97 today. Nothing is off with Newark, just ***holes that are jealous that their station didn't get one or two degrees higher.

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A few respectable mets in sne thread are talking about how ewr temps stick out like a sore thumb....i still dont understand how they hit 90 Tuesday.....i kno its beaten alot...but something looks off...

not that strange they hit 90 on Monday. I hit 88 and thats with lots of open grass.

for me 92 yesterday and 94 today, tomorrow will officially mark the third heatwave

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