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July 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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the high was 72 at midnight otherwise it would be 60's for the high...record low max for this date is 70...

Have we had anything like this before? 100 degree high in NYC then near record low max during the same week. That has to be unprecedented.

Showers blossoming in CNJ; looks like a rainy afternoon. Winds also getting a bit gusty out of the NE, akin to an autumn nor'easter. Switch of seasons in a matter of 1 day.

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Upton:

STORM TOTAL BASIN AVG QPF THROUGH THIS EVENING STILL LOOKS LIKE 1 TO

1.5 INCHES (LOCALLY 2 INCHES) FROM WESTERN LONG ISLAND AND NYC ON

WEST...0.75 TO 1.25 INCH FOR SW CT AND CENTRAL LONG

ISLAND...TAPERING TO LESS THAN 0.5 INCH FOR SE CT. MINOR URBAN

FLOODING OF LOW LYING AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS IS MAIN THREAT WITH

STRATIFORM NATURE OF RAIN...BUT A LOW END FLASH FLOOD THREAT

EXISTS WITH PWATS AROUND 2 INCHES AND OBSERVED HOURLY RAINFALL

RATES OF 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES PER HOUR IN HEAVIER SHOWER ACTIVITY

ACROSS NJ/PA. BASED ON FFG FOR SMALL RIVERS AND STREAMS OF 2 1/2

TO 3 INCHES IN 3 HRS ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND

EXPECTED LOCALIZED NATURE OF HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS...NO FLASH FLOOD

WATCH HAS BEEN BE ISSUED.

looking like one of the worst busts in recent memory. I have recieved .13 so far.

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today reminds me of July 11th 1965...Midnight temperatures in the 70's but dropping to 60 with rain most of the day...July 9th 1964 was another cool rainy day I remember with an inch of rain and a max of 63...July 4th 1978 with a max of 62 is another day like today...

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From Savannah to Seattle. I can see tomorrow potentially taking till the afternoon to clear as the cloud deck extends back into IL. We've had an incredible July so far - so 2 days of this dreary weather is more tolerable. This reminds me of 2009, 2003 tyoe summer weather. Back to 90 by Mon/Tue for the boys if summer so this is likley a speed bump to another month +3 to +4.

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We had a high of 105 and then 79 two days later in 2001, but seeing 60s in the middle of the day after being over 100 48 hours earlier? Can't find anything like that recently.

Have we had anything like this before? 100 degree high in NYC then near record low max during the same week. That has to be unprecedented.

Showers blossoming in CNJ; looks like a rainy afternoon. Winds also getting a bit gusty out of the NE, akin to an autumn nor'easter. Switch of seasons in a matter of 1 day.

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Looks like a bust at least in this area, especially with the NAM. It's not too surprising since the models didn't have a solid handle on this storm from the start leaving a bust potential, but I was hoping for at least something decent today to really ease the dry conditions. My 0.2" total so far isn't impressive yet it's more than the last two days combined.

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Looks like a bust at least in this area, especially with the NAM. It's not too surprising since the models didn't have a solid handle on this storm from the start leaving a bust potential, but I was hoping for at least something decent today to really ease the dry conditions. My 0.2" total so far isn't impressive yet it's more than the last two days combined.

NAM is the only model that finally backed off the heavy rain, starting last night at 0z and then especially at 6z and 12z today.

Latest Euro, 0z had 1.50" of rain.

Today's 12z GFS, was still showing a decent amount also.

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It looks like we have a shot at more localized rains in any convection Monday and Tuesday.

We are doing better in the rainfall department than much of the country right now.

JFK is almost normal on the year so far compared to the higher deficits at other local stations.

SINCE JAN 1 21.99 23.65 -1.66

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NAM is the only model that finally backed off the heavy rain, starting last night at 0z and then especially at 6z and 12z today.

Latest Euro, 0z had 1.50" of rain.

Today's 12z GFS, was still showing a decent amount also.

Just saw the 0z ECM, amazing how much it was off only within the 6-12 hour range. Interesting how the NAM was the only model to back away as initially it also exaggerated rain totals the most, showing a large area of 3+ inches. Its 0z run yesterday showed the northern cutoff not far to the north of the NJ/NY border.

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Yeah its really amazing how in this part of the country, even really dry weather rarely lasts for very long and usually we make up for it in the end. Was just in KC last weekend and they are running 1/3 of normal since April 1st. Everything is brown and dried out and temps were 98-100 everyday. Now they are going into a 5 day stretch with temps in the 105-108 range again. Just unreal.

It looks like we have a shot at more localized rains in any convection Monday and Tuesday.

We are doing better in the rainfall department than much of the country right now.

JFK is almost normal on the year so far compared to the higher deficits at other local stations.

SINCE JAN 1 21.99 23.65 -1.66

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