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July 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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Do you have a favorite place in Monmouth County? I'm a fan of Brothers in Red Bank and Orlandos in Colts Neck.

I havent been to either of those places, but I wonder if the Brothers is related to the Brothers that started in Staten Island and spread to NJ. We usaually got Krispy Pizza when in Jersey.

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Have to say, I'm a big summer heat lover but I think Tony (sacrus) beats me out in that regard. I enjoyed today's cloudy/cool weather as a break from the recent extreme heat. Hopefully we're back to sunshine soon though. We've got enough clouds in the other seasons.

LOL.Sorry if some of my posts were more bantor than weather related. I just would have rather had some nice storms or a good rain if we had to have such a cloudy day in July and especially to break such a streak. We have been spoiled of late with such sunny days including the many california-style days in april, may and june.

Im a hot in the summer and snow in the winter kind of guy. I think im equally as passionate of both.

Ill say the next two weeks look interesting for heat, normal, some below and some rain but should average above normal overall. Im still not sure on August yet but think we continue above normal.

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Rain is getting closer to western areas and it's only 10 PM. Double checking the NAM, it had rain getting close to the area by now, but it takes until the morning for the rain to actually move in. It'll be interesting to see if the NAM is bringing this in too slowly or if it's on track.

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where is the rain coming from for tomorrow, seems to be weakening as it moves closer, is it a case of the front stalling and an impluse riding up it tomorrow.

it was only suppose to be a showery type of rain earlier on and a more steady rain developing around noon time tomorrow

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105?! That must have been the warmest temperature on the east coast. You make it to 110 last year or the year before?

Hit 106 last year and 106.5 the year before, this year 105. (technically was 104.6, so really only could have been a tenth or two higher than EWR).

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The best is the 0z euro.

Through 9am (now) it had nearly .50" of rain areawide and then from 9am to 2pm another 1" to 1.25" to fall.

And didn't it have us on the northern edge of the rain too? The rain is almost up to Albany!

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You could tell by looking at the radar later yesterday that the bulk of the moisture would move in earlier and leave quicker.

Yeah, but the euro, rgem and other models had a very heavy line of rain right over our area. 0z euro, 0z rgem amongst others.

Here is the 0z rgem. The 0z euro was almost a carbon copy of this:

f12.gif

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A stifling 68 degress here on this fine morning.

Guidance looking to be a bit of a back and forth ride between some heat and normal/below the next week to 10 days as we near August, with an overall warmer than normal look. Im not sure we'll see 3 straight 90 + days this coming week. Whats more likely is we see 2 then cool back towards normal a day or two before more heat builds in.

At this point i'd say mon/tue (7/23 - 24) will be the next opportunity for heat, with tuesday the hotter day before the next front moves on in by wed. Beyond there, Thu - sat look hotter again the way it looks now. Not sure thursday sees widespread 90s (the warmer spots may get 3 in a row).. Id take a gander the heat will over perform as we get closer to those days but a tendency for troughiness will keep sustained heat to 2 - 3 days before the next front comes through to cool us off. There is a hint on some guidance the western atlantic ridge begins to build west again towards the beginning of August we shall see.

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Been very showery but still managed to pick up almost .33" of rain. Looks like precip is filling in back in PA so I'd say we're not done yet. The NAM was trending drier ever since yesterday afternoon but it is surprising how wet the Euro was last night. Don't think we're going to see close to those amounts.

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