SACRUS Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 If you track the current cloud deck over the GL and progress it east, I think we may be dealing with clouds durng the overnight into early morning - not countng any new storms that pop. Probably a 12 hour trip then 6 hours of clouds (18 - 24 hours). May get most of the day and if that holds - it will be qute hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 wow...105! When is this heat going to break? I am looking forward to some cooler/drier weather at some point soon. There actually seems to be a better chance of the heat weakening following the Saturday cold front, when a larger trough likely drops into SE Canada with ridging building into Greenland again. Highly doubt it'll be as cold as it was with the late June ULL, but still a relief from the persistent 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mcwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 http://www.wundergro...ityName=Chicago Models continue to differ in potential for back door lake enhanced front sneaking in late Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night. If this occurs ample instability and limited capping could allow for explosive T-storm development along it late Wednesday PM into Wednesday evening. Potential for thunderstorms and lake enhanced cooling raises some doubts in forecast for temperatures Thursday...but even more aggressive NAM heats things back up quickly so day shift will probably need to extend advisory into Thursday and probably go with a heat warning for Chicago. Friday looks to be an absolute scorcher with European model (ecmwf) still painting a scenario that would result in Chicago making a run at all time record high of 105 as 925mb temperatures climb into the lower 30s. Frontal passage Friday night should put an end to the intense heat though temperatures look to remain above average through the weekend. Its Worth noting the current forecast has highs reaching 100f in Chicago today through Friday at o'hare...if by some chance this forecast actually pans out then it would be the first time in recorded history that the official observation site for Chicago would see 4 triple digit days in a row. What year was it that they had 500+ deaths due to a heat wave... and this potentially is hotter than that? I don't know the answer, which is why I'm asking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What year was it that they had 500+ deaths due to a heat wave... and this potentially is hotter than that? I don't know the answer, which is why I'm asking... That was 1995. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Chicago_heat_wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The gfs got decidedly wetter for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The gfs got decidedly wetter for tonight radar shows a good batch of storms in MI moving SE.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Joe B: Example of Garbage temps. Newark 93 5 above anyone in area. Even LGA 86 with nw wind. Lousy exposure for therm https://mobile.twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/tweets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Joe B: Example of Garbage temps. Newark 93 5 above anyone in area. Even LGA 86 with nw wind. Lousy exposure for therm https://mobile.twitt...Bastardi/tweets False. Not "5 above anyone in area". New Brunswick daily TMAX of 91, Hillsborough 91, Davis stations in Harrison and North Arlington both at 93 around 2 PM. Yeah, Newark's a warm station, but come on.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 False. Not "5 above anyone in area". New Brunswick daily TMAX of 91, Hillsborough 91, Davis stations in Harrison and North Arlington both at 93 around 2 PM. Yeah, Newark's a warm station, but come on.... Plus a NW wind for LGA is right off the East River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 850's look hot enough to support a 100 degree reading for Newark on Saturday. We'll have to see what the timing of cloud debris and convection is to know if they get stuck at 98-99 or crack the century mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 850's look hot enough to support a 100 degree reading for Newark on Saturday. We'll have to see what the timing of cloud debris and convection is to know if they get stuck at 98-99 or crack the century mark. Upper 90s don't even impress me anymore. It's like ho hum at this point. A couple days ago it was 97 at LGA and I was like really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 12z Euro looks cool after this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 False. Not "5 above anyone in area". New Brunswick daily TMAX of 91, Hillsborough 91, Davis stations in Harrison and North Arlington both at 93 around 2 PM. Yeah, Newark's a warm station, but come on.... yesterday i did a check of high temps in metro ne nj and most of them were within a degree of ewr's 91 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 As of 4pm EWR isn't even the highest anymore ATLANTIC CIT, NJ 4pm 87 87 36 S/13 29.91 10 SUNNY BELMAR, NJ 4pm 88 88 39 SSE/10 29.92 10 MOSTLY SUNNY CALDWELL, NJ 4pm 91 93 31 N/5 29.88 10 MOSTLY SUNNY NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 90 93 29 S/3 29.87 10 PARTLY SUNNY SUSSEX, NJ 4pm 88 91 34 N/5 29.89 10 SUNNY MORRISTOWN M, NJ 4pm 91 91 31 W/10 29.89 10 MOSTLY SUNNY SOMERVILLE, NJ 4pm 91 93 29 N/6 29.87 10 SUNNY TETERBORO AR, NJ 4pm 88 89 37 N/7 29.86 10 MOSTLY SUNNY TRENTON, NJ 4pm 90 94 29 N/3 29.89 10 SUNNY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 yesterday i did a check of high temps in metro ne nj and most of them were within a degree of ewr's 91 90.3 here yesterday, 94.0 today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The D 10 Euro ensembles and GEFS are hinting that there will be a D 11-15 merger of the West Atlantic and Plains Ridge after the D 6-10 trough lifts out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 As of 4pm EWR isn't even the highest anymore ATLANTIC CIT, NJ 4pm 87 87 36 S/13 29.91 10 SUNNY BELMAR, NJ 4pm 88 88 39 SSE/10 29.92 10 MOSTLY SUNNY CALDWELL, NJ 4pm 91 93 31 N/5 29.88 10 MOSTLY SUNNY NEWARK INTL , NJ 4pm 90 93 29 S/3 29.87 10 PARTLY SUNNY SUSSEX, NJ 4pm 88 91 34 N/5 29.89 10 SUNNY MORRISTOWN M, NJ 4pm 91 91 31 W/10 29.89 10 MOSTLY SUNNY SOMERVILLE, NJ 4pm 91 93 29 N/6 29.87 10 SUNNY TETERBORO AR, NJ 4pm 88 89 37 N/7 29.86 10 MOSTLY SUNNY TRENTON, NJ 4pm 90 94 29 N/3 29.89 10 SUNNY back to 92 with west winds at 5 pm... it probably was a seabreeze influence since winds went ssw at 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 let's see how far inland this will go http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=391¢ery=211&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=0.559&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 91F high here for day 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Models dropping nearly 1" of rain tomorrow morning is a sure sign of widespread convection tomorrow morning from 6z to 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The 12z Euro looks cool after this week: you mean cooler not cool...cool would be 70s and that will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 you mean cooler not cool...cool would be 70s and that will not happen. Lol Looks like upper 60's to low 70's for highs and 50's at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 let's see how far inland this will go http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?ID=EWR&lat=0&lon=0&label=you&type=TR0&zoommode=pan&map.x=400&map.y=240¢erx=211&prevzoom=zoom&num=10&delay=15&scale=0.559&showlabels=1&smooth=0&noclutter=0&showstorms=0&rainsnow=0&lightning=0 I work at the port in Elizabeth so I'll let you know...there are some towering cumulus to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Lol Looks like upper 60's to low 70's for highs and 50's at night. Likely typical ECM long range exaggeration IMO. Might be a day or two of widespread 70s if there's widespreaad cloud cover/rain but otherwise this time period appears to look more like upper 70s-mid 80s, or in other words near/slightly below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Hoping rain holds off until after phish concert ends around 11...every time i go to jones beach for a concert it rains, without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 But you'll be high so who cares? Hoping rain holds off until after phish concert ends around 11...every time i go to jones beach for a concert it rains, without fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 But you'll be high so who cares? Normally, but i am driving myself to and from and i do not DUI, so most likely not...tried it from a phish show once and repeatedly forgot where i was driving while driving, swore id never do it again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Hoping rain holds off until after phish concert ends around 11...every time i go to jones beach for a concert it rains, without fail. Have fun man. I'll be watching the webcast tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Have fun man. I'll be watching the webcast tonight haha nice! you going tomorrow? im thinkin we luck out and get a dry show with some good fireworks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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