ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 12z euro has a brief 2-3 day cool shot for late next week and into the weekend but then it looks like real heat enters the area again at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 So you're calling for a cooldown? is that what you're saying? you're going to bust 12z euro has a brief 2-3 day cool shot for late next week and into the weekend but then it looks like real heat enters the area again at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 So you're calling for a cooldown? is that what you're saying? you're going to bust LOL. Winterwarlock will say that people called for a cooldown for late next week!!!! LMAO. Purely model interpretation, it's a pretty cool airmass for Late July late next week on the euro. Its in fantasy range, but so far it's been getting stronger with the strength of the high pressure on each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Bust bust bust...must be 90+ every day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Euro's sister, the UKIE, has the same idea for late next week as well: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Bust bust bust...must be 90+ every day Hasn't been 90+ in 5 days. Beautiful weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Today its clouds but the past 2 days its been wind. Otherwise it doesnt make sense to hit 88 at noon and stop rising with cloud cover remaining the same and locations 10 miles away being 4 degrees warmer. NYC, LGA and EWR hit 89 degrees in between hours and all 3 have dropped back 2-5 degrees now. P.S. Cloudiness should not influence the station's differences. EWR should have the same spread with NYC/LGA on cloudy days or sunny days. The point of a well placed thermometer is to not be influenced by direct sun light. Its odd to me that EWR and LGA have been almost exact, this past week under varying types of winds and under partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Some have been blaming it on a sea breeze but that's not a good explanation since everyday has seen varying types of wind directions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hasn't been 90+ in 5 days. Beautiful weather. This week would have been an all out torch back in July 2009. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 This week would have been an all out torch back in July 2009. brutal summer that was...rained all of june-july was very cool but dry at least and then some mugginess in August, but all in all, a year without a summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 brutal summer that was...rained all of june-july was very cool but dry at least and then some mugginess in August, but all in all, a year without a summer. Summer 2009 seems like 1816 compared to 2010 on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The Euro is hinting at upper 90's for Newark on Tuesday before the front moves through with severe storms on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The GFS has been showing Tuesday as the hottest day as well. The Euro is hinting at upper 90's for Newark on Tuesday before the front moves through with severe storms on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Nobody said anything. It was pure model analysis. At that time, models had a fairly good amount of rain. With rain, a couple days would've been below normal. Models busted with the precip but not the atmospheric conditions. In the end, the weather has been splendid and humid free. Not hot at all. 85-89 for 4 days. Perfect weather for July. Im not complaining but IMBY it was 91 and it has been fairly humid around these parts I have no doubt it will be a tad cooler...gee when its mid to maybe upper 90s you have to cool down by the end of next week toward more normal levels...but it has still been above normal this week and calls for 90 degree temps which we have had in locations were not on the models last week either...we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
billgwx Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I don't know what they did to the GFS as part of the "upgrade", but since they have upgraded, the MOS, which was once an incredibly reliable tool, is garbage. GFS MOS right after the upgrade was forecasting ridiculously warm highs. Tweaks were made and now its highs have a cool bias. Meanwhile, NAM MOS highs have been a little too warm. That said, have been pretty close on highs lately with a 2:1 NAM-MOS/GFS-MOS blend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Summer 2009 seems like 1816 compared to 2010 on. The March 2010 - August 2010 stretch was the hottest ever...Summer 2011 was very warm....but a good deal cooler than 2010...Autumn 2011 and Winter 2012 was again more or less the warmest period ever for that part of the calendar....March 2012 reaching obscene heights....since April 2012, temps, while still a bit above normal....have come back to earth just a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 The March 2010 - August 2010 stretch was the hottest ever...Summer 2011 was very warm....but a good deal cooler than 2010...Autumn 2011 and Winter 2012 was again more or less the warmest period ever for that part of the calendar....March 2012 reaching obscene heights....since April 2012, temps, while still a bit above normal....have come back to earth just a bit. Truth be told, I cannot recall a cold autumn in the last 30 years (when all three months, September, October, and November all came in below normal) at KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 NYC, LGA and EWR hit 89 degrees in between hours and all 3 have dropped back 2-5 degrees now. P.S. Cloudiness should not influence the station's differences. EWR should have the same spread with NYC/LGA on cloudy days or sunny days. The point of a well placed thermometer is to not be influenced by direct sun light. Its odd to me that EWR and LGA have been almost exact, this past week under varying types of winds and under partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Some have been blaming it on a sea breeze but that's not a good explanation since everyday has seen varying types of wind directions. EVERY day EWR had S-SE winds. I don't know what you're looking at. On the same days, I had S-SW winds, and hit 92 today. Normally, I'm the same as EWR or a degree cooler, and the last few days I've been 3-4 degrees warmer. I really wish you could show me the data you are looking at, but EWR's winds have been S/SE every day for the last 4 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 GFS MOS right after the upgrade was forecasting ridiculously warm highs. Tweaks were made and now its highs have a cool bias. Meanwhile, NAM MOS highs have been a little too warm. That said, have been pretty close on highs lately with a 2:1 NAM-MOS/GFS-MOS blend. This exactly. It seems like whenever they tweak something, they overcompensate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 EVERY day EWR had S-SE winds. I don't know what you're looking at. On the same days, I had S-SW winds, and hit 92 today. Normally, I'm the same as EWR or a degree cooler, and the last few days I've been 3-4 degrees warmer. I really wish you could show me the data you are looking at, but EWR's winds have been S/SE every day for the last 4 days. No they didn't. They had calm winds most of the day today and variable winds throughout the week. With south and southeast winds occasionally, but not the whole time. I'm taking data about Newark and cloudy days with regards to the spread with LGA and NYC. So far on cloudy days on ANY wind direction, the spread with EWR and other stations is non-existent. Will wait for at least 3 months of data before I send my info in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 NYC, LGA and EWR hit 89 degrees in between hours and all 3 have dropped back 2-5 degrees now. P.S. Cloudiness should not influence the station's differences. EWR should have the same spread with NYC/LGA on cloudy days or sunny days. The point of a well placed thermometer is to not be influenced by direct sun light. Its odd to me that EWR and LGA have been almost exact, this past week under varying types of winds and under partly to mostly cloudy conditions. Some have been blaming it on a sea breeze but that's not a good explanation since everyday has seen varying types of wind directions. EVERY day EWR had S-SE winds. I don't know what you're looking at. On the same days, I had S-SW winds, and hit 92 today. Normally, I'm the same as EWR or a degree cooler, and the last few days I've been 3-4 degrees warmer. I really wish you could show me the data you are looking at, but EWR's winds have been S/SE every day for the last 4 days. I'm sure if he posts it enough times, it will become true, or at least will have everybody convinced that it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 I'm sure if he posts it enough times, it will become true, or at least will have everybody convinced that it is. Winds have not been constant south and southeast for the past 8 days. Winds have been varying from calm, to variable, to north and to south all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 its a cooldown but last week alot of posters said average to slighty below normal, that busted Actually it has been an average to slightly below avg week for some parts of the area. Mon-Wed were all 83/63 for high/low here. Yesterday was 85.5 and today was the warmest at 88. With normals in mid July around 85-86/65-66, that fits the criteria. I'm sure those east of NYC had a similar situation to us in Monmouth County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Euro's sister, the UKIE, has the same idea for late next week as well: With the stronger cold front for Wednesday, late next week does look favorable for a brief yet somewhat strong trough. Highs are still going to stay in the 80s, but it should be a relief from the heat/humidity before temps apparently warm up again in the longer range. Tuesday looks the hottest right now with upper 90s possible in Newark, although a slower cold front timing would make Wednesday probably just as hot with severe weather later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Winds have not been constant south and southeast for the past 8 days. Winds have been varying from calm, to variable, to north and to south all week. From Monday through yesterday during the prime heating hours in the afternoons, the winds kicked around to the south or southeast with at best scattered clouds permitting incoming solar radiation. This was consistent with the predominant sky conditions in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Actually it has been an average to slightly below avg week for some parts of the area. Mon-Wed were all 83/63 for high/low here. Yesterday was 85.5 and today was the warmest at 88. With normals in mid July around 85-86/65-66, that fits the criteria. I'm sure those east of NYC had a similar situation to us in Monmouth County. I was a bit warmer in Monroe 7/9: 89 7/10: 87 7/11: 86 7/12: 90 7/13: 91 New Brunswick 7/9: 88 7/10: 87 7/11:87 7/12:90 7/13: (i think it was 91) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Central park 6th day at 89 today PHL: 92 EWR: 89 TTN: 89 TEB: 92 LGA: 89 NYC: 89 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Today was the only day that EWR had mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. And basically all week highs were reached right around noon with a tailoff thereafter. Unless it went from 90% sunny to mostly cloudy this would not have occurred without a windshift. Not only that but most nearby interior stations like Caldwell, Morristown and Somerville all hit 90 at least once. From Monday through yesterday during the prime heating hours in the afternoons, the winds kicked around to the south or southeast with at best scattered clouds permitting incoming solar radiation. This was consistent with the predominant sky conditions in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Today was the only day that EWR had mostly cloudy skies in the afternoon. And basically all week highs were reached right around noon with a tailoff thereafter. Unless it went from 90% sunny to mostly cloudy this would not have occurred without a windshift. Not only that but most nearby interior stations like Caldwell, Morristown and Somerville all hit 90 at least once. Of course, he'll never acknowledge this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 No they didn't. They had calm winds most of the day today and variable winds throughout the week. With south and southeast winds occasionally, but not the whole time. I'm taking data about Newark and cloudy days with regards to the spread with LGA and NYC. So far on cloudy days on ANY wind direction, the spread with EWR and other stations is non-existent. Will wait for at least 3 months of data before I send my info in. As others have said on here, winds flipped to S/SE in the hours of max heating. Why in the world else would TEB be 3 degrees warmer than EWR today? Get back to me on a day with West winds of ANY component, from 200 to 340 degrees direction at max heating if EWR is cooler or equal to NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Clouds in the way - first cloudy weekend day in a while... Looks like it may be till after noon time before we see some breaks looking at the sat and whats into PA. Some rain into the E-PA and s-nj looks to stay mainly south of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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