Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The lows have been busting way high though.Could EWR go the whole month without dropping below 70? Would seem impossible but not out of the question the way things have been going. Heat this week has been unimpressive though for most of the metro area (save for inland NNJ). My highest has been 86, Mon-Wed were 83. Today remains to be seen. I'm at 84 now; if we get enough sun, 90 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Heat this week has been unimpressive though for most of the metro area (save for inland NNJ). My highest has been 86, Mon-Wed were 83. Today remains to be seen. I'm at 84 now; if we get enough sun, 90 is possible. this wasn't really supposed to be a big heat week....I'd say the cooldown actually underperformed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The lows have been busting way high though.Could EWR go the whole month without dropping below 70? Would seem impossible but not out of the question the way things have been going. I think the calm winds (rad cooling set-up) at night have led to urban zones on the warm side and suburbs much cooler, b/c my lows have been in the 62-64 range all week, which is a bit below normal for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 this wasn't really supposed to be a big heat week....I'd say the cooldown actually underperformed... I agree, it's been dangerous to bet against the warmth these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 more then likely this is going to be a normal hurricane season this year since we are in la nada right now or neutral enso - and with above normal ocean temps this far north would not be surprising if at some point in august or early september we will have to deal with another tropical system coming up the east coast - thats what we should be looking for to break this dry spell - at least around this part of NJ the power companies have been cutting down the tree limbs that could possibly fall on top of power lines so we should be in better shape if we experience tropical storm or hurricane force winds.... they are butchering the trees around edison and on top of that are only cutting branches around the wires, leaving the large ones 30 feet above the wires. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 this wasn't really supposed to be a big heat week....I'd say the cooldown actually underperformed... Certainly by GFS standards. The 2m temp cool bias gives people the impression that it will be cooler than it really will be. The Euro and NAM did a better job as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The 7/9 - 7/12 cool down EWR: 7/9 : 87/73 (+3) 7/10: 87/71 (+2) 7/11: 85/73 (+3) 7/12: 89/71 (+2) TTN:: 7/9 : 86/71 (+3) 7/10: 87/68 (+2) 7/11: 87/65 (+1) 7/12: 90/65 (+2) NYC: 7/9 : 86/73 (+4) 7/10: 87/69 (+2) 7/11: 85/71 (+1) 7/12: 89/70 (+3) LGA: 7/9 : 86/73 (+3) 7/10: 86/72 (+2) 7/11: 85/71 (+1) 7/12: 89/76 (+4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 The 7/9 - 7/12 cool down EWR: 7/9 : 87/73 (+3) 7/10: 87/71 (+2) 7/11: 85/73 (+3) 7/12: 89/71 (+2) TTN:: 7/9 : 86/71 (+3) 7/10: 87/68 (+2) 7/11: 87/65 (+1) 7/12: 90/65 (+2) NYC: 7/9 : 86/73 (+4) 7/10: 87/69 (+2) 7/11: 85/71 (+1) 7/12: 89/70 (+3) LGA: 7/9 : 86/73 (+3) 7/10: 86/72 (+2) 7/11: 85/71 (+1) 7/12: 89/76 (+4) That's 4 days in a row of no 90+. Compared to last week, it's a cool down. You aren't going to get much lower then that in mid July without rainy days. The past 4 days have been splendid summer weather. Not too hot and no humidity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I don't know what they did to the GFS as part of the "upgrade", but since they have upgraded, the MOS, which was once an incredibly reliable tool, is garbage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It looks like the shortwave moving through on Sunday will be the trigger for the convection around the area. The PW's look to rise to around 2 in so any storms will be capable of very heavy downpours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 can someone post the nam temp maps for Sat/Sun as well as the precip maps? Thx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 its a cooldown but last week alot of posters said average to slighty below normal, that busted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 That's 4 days in a row of no 90+. Compared to last week, it's a cool down. You aren't going to get much lower then that in mid July without rainy days. The past 4 days have been splendid summer weather. Not too hot and no humidity. Agreed, when guidance backed off on the rain, keeping it south it was apparent we'd be at or above normal. I actually thought yesterday would be warmer but most sites fell just short of 90 except NJ and some S-NE spots. Mid to upper 80s now but clouds in the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 So does tomorrow look generally cloudy w/ some breaks of sun - but relatively dry, till after midnight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 its a cooldown but last week alot of posters said average to slighty below normal, that busted Nobody said anything. It was pure model analysis. At that time, models had a fairly good amount of rain. With rain, a couple days would've been below normal. Models busted with the precip but not the atmospheric conditions. In the end, the weather has been splendid and humid free. Not hot at all. 85-89 for 4 days. Perfect weather for July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 12z NAM is slowly coming on board for Sunday now. Shows some convection for the whole area. Its still not widespread like every other model has but it's slowly coming down to earth. 12z GFS has .75"+ for NYC east and over 1" for the Jersey Shore area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 what's the timing of the rain on Sunday? Total washout or pm type stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 what's the timing of the rain on Sunday? Total washout or pm type stuff? Looks like early morning pulse and then afternoon. I dont think the whole day is a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 12z NAM is slowly coming on board for Sunday now. Shows some convection for the whole area. Its still not widespread like every other model has but it's slowly coming down to earth. 12z GFS has .75"+ for NYC east and over 1" for the Jersey Shore area. With PW"s around 2 in, I think that areas that see training could pick up 2-3 inches locally. While areas outside the best convection could see less than .75 in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 With PW"s around 2 in, I think that areas that see training could pick up 2-3 inches locally. While areas outside the best convection could see less than .75 in. Agreed. Right now the training chances look best for the same areas that have been receiving it this year. Around Isotherm territory and south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Agreed. Right now the training chances look best for the same areas that have been receiving it this year. Around Isotherm territory and south. ag3 - i forget but i think you mentioned in the past that you were using the ECm or ggem cloud forecast. Im curious what its showing for tomorrow. I could see us getting into some bigger breaks later today and parts of tomorrow based on current vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 ag3 - i forget but i think you mentioned in the past that you were using the ECm or ggem cloud forecast. Im curious what its showing for tomorrow. I could see us getting into some bigger breaks later today and parts of tomorrow based on current vis sat. 0z Euro has full coudiness until the afternoon and then breaks of sun after 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Looks like the 12z euro cut back on the precip for Sunday now. Only has minimal showers, like the NAM now. No widespread stuff. The best rains are south of the area from the early morning vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 NAM for a rare win. Dryness wins out again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 NAM for a rare win. Dryness wins out again How about we wait until this weekend is over before declaring wins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 NAM for a rare win. Dryness wins out again I didn't say it was dry. I said it cut back. Yesterday's runs centered the .75"+ right around NYC. Today the heaviest stuff is south of NYC but there is still rain throughout the day on Sunday. But any T-storm can easily drop bigger amounts anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It has less than .2" now for Sunday. But yeah if its convective and pop up in nature theres no way the models are going to nail that. I didn't say it was dry. I said it cut back. Yesterday's runs centered the .75"+ right around NYC. Today the heaviest stuff is south of NYC but there is still rain throughout the day on Sunday. But any T-storm can easily drop bigger amounts anywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 So far, NYC, LGA and EWR all topped out at 89 degrees and have since dropped back a few degrees with more clouds rolling in. Sacrus must love 2 days in a row of 89 everywhere. EWR continues to be held in check. Some say sea breeze even though winds have been variable all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Any breaks of sun would help to destabilize the atmosphere more for thunderstorms on Sunday. Even the NAM has plenty of moisture available for the locations that do get storms. But some people are going to miss the jackpot and still have a very dry front lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Today its clouds but the past 2 days its been wind. Otherwise it doesnt make sense to hit 88 at noon and stop rising with cloud cover remaining the same and locations 10 miles away being 4 degrees warmer. So far, NYC, LGA and EWR all topped out at 89 degrees and have since dropped back a few degrees with more clouds rolling in. Sacrus must love 2 days in a row of 89 everywhere. EWR continues to be held in check. Some say sea breeze even though winds have been variable all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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