winterwarlock Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 somewhat skeptical about how much rain we get this weekend widespread, remember dry begets dry for a reason Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 On another note, it feels like NE Jersey hits 90+ like its nothing. I don't know how they don't average like twice as many 90 degree days as places just their north and east. Two big factors make NE Jersey anomalously warm...all winds between W and N are subject to compressional warming as they sink down the Poconos and Kittatinies and 2/ heavy urbanization makes it a little warmer than most other areas...I remember after the Blizzard of '83...Saturday, February 12, 1983...the skies had cleared and winds had backed around to NW as the Monster Low headed into the Atlantic Shipping Lanes...LGA...KNYC...HPN...Islip....were all stuck in the low 30's that afternoon...but Newark Airport somehow managed to shoot up to 38 F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 somewhat skeptical about how much rain we get this weekend widespread, remember dry begets dry for a reason Until it rains. When is this dry begets dry nonsense going to stop? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 Until it rains. When is this dry begets dry nonsense going to stop? more then likely this is going to be a normal hurricane season this year since we are in la nada right now or neutral enso - and with above normal ocean temps this far north would not be surprising if at some point in august or early september we will have to deal with another tropical system coming up the east coast - thats what we should be looking for to break this dry spell - at least around this part of NJ the power companies have been cutting down the tree limbs that could possibly fall on top of power lines so we should be in better shape if we experience tropical storm or hurricane force winds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Until it rains. When is this dry begets dry nonsense going to stop? It's a dry pattern--most areas are 5-8 inches below for the year and the last 3 weeks have been desert dry....usually when it gets that way it often continues, eespecially when it (the dry spell) matures in the middle of summer. Remember 1988? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It's a dry pattern--most areas are 5-8 inches below for the year and the last 3 weeks have been desert dry....usually when it gets that way it often continues, eespecially when it (the dry spell) matures in the middle of summer. Remember 1988? I was only 5 and probably not in the country anyway lol. Summer time meant vacation. Still, it's not an endless positive feedback loop. So while yes it has been dry, the dry pattern WILL break. Just like our wet patterns break as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 I was only 5 and probably not in the country anyway lol. Summer time meant vacation. Still, it's not an endless positive feedback loop. So while yes it has been dry, the dry pattern WILL break. Just like our wet patterns break as well. Agree. 1988 was one for the ages--40 or so days w/o measurable and 90+ everyday--to say the area was dry was an understatement--it broke, with a bang...but not until after the damage was done...part of me sees the same thing with this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Two big factors make NE Jersey anomalously warm...all winds between W and N are subject to compressional warming as they sink down the Poconos and Kittatinies and 2/ heavy urbanization makes it a little warmer than most other areas...I remember after the Blizzard of '83...Saturday, February 12, 1983...the skies had cleared and winds had backed around to NW as the Monster Low headed into the Atlantic Shipping Lanes...LGA...KNYC...HPN...Islip....were all stuck in the low 30's that afternoon...but Newark Airport somehow managed to shoot up to 38 F. I agree with the compressional warming, but would put less emphasis on the urbanization factor, although it is heavily suburban interspersed with some fairly large urbanized communities, i.e. Newark, Elizabeth, Paterson, and Hackensack, Other urbanized areas such as Bayonne, Hoboken, Jersey City and Weehawken, are subject to slight seabreeze effects from the Hudson River and with Bayonne, also Newark Bay. I think the other major factor is being inland and at low elevations, (I'm excluding any higher elevational areas within this region), away from the moderating influences of any significant bodies of water. West Point, in Orange County, not exactly urbanized and being almost at sea level, has a July avg. max of about 84.6, only slightly below Newark's 85.2. http://maps.google.c...Jersey&t=m&z=10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 somewhat skeptical about how much rain we get this weekend widespread, remember dry begets dry for a reason June was very wet. It's been dry for about 2-3 weeks maximum. I'd be shocked if we don't reverse this brief dry pattern given the analogs, ENSO/SOI trends, and the impending tropical regime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 lookin cloudy tomorrow / sat - clouds in the way setup maybe limit 90 readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 lookin cloudy tomorrow / sat - clouds in the way setup maybe limit 90 readings. Some posters were promising me a heatwave..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Buoys south of LI are between 76 and 80 degrees, just amazing for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Some posters were promising me a heatwave..... for one, I said "may" be a heatwave in my post yesterday that it may be the start of a heatwave. Knew that Fri-Sun would be close whatever the case it is going to be close and if we don't do it this weekend, it will happen in the first 3 days of next week okay are people now willing to admit its a hot summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 for one, I said "may" be a heatwave in my post yesterday that it may be the start of a heatwave. Knew that Fri-Sun would be close whatever the case it is going to be close and if we don't do it this weekend, it will happen in the first 3 days of next week okay are people now willing to admit its a hot summer I'll let you know in September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 for one, I said "may" be a heatwave in my post yesterday that it may be the start of a heatwave. Knew that Fri-Sun would be close whatever the case it is going to be close and if we don't do it this weekend, it will happen in the first 3 days of next week okay are people now willing to admit its a hot summer the irony is hysterical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 the irony is hysterical. Can someone forget their own posts that quickly? Apparently yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Looks pretty hot Mon-Wed with Upton going low to mid 90's. Even this weekend could be warm (esp Sat) if the rain stays away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Any possible organized severe weather on tap for next week? Weather has been very boring to say the least lately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 wasn't always like that, increased urbanization combined with greenhouse gases and significat global climate change is making it like 90 is the new norm. Totally agree! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Any possible organized severe weather on tap for next week? Weather has been very boring to say the least lately Sunday looks like the most active day as every model except the NAM have widespread decent rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Sunday looks like the most active day as every model except the NAM have widespread decent rains. is today's nam out yet? (12z) bet it flips to a wetter solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Some posters were promising me a heatwave..... With enough breaks we'll get to 90 today thats the only thing stopping some hotter readings. Some areas including central, NJ hit 90 wed/thu and today would make 3. Other stations were stuck on 89 yesterday. Gonna be close. Tomorrow may see more sun too perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 the irony is hysterical. uh duh read my post....today I hit 91, this may be a start of a heatwave. lols...I never ever said a heatwave was starting this week, you are making yourself look foolish, please stop embarrassing yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Can someone forget their own posts that quickly? Apparently yes. link please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 It's not finished running yet but so far its dry through tomorrow evening. update: NAM is still quite dry for sunday (<.25") is today's nam out yet? (12z) bet it flips to a wetter solution.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 uh duh read my post....today I hit 91, this may be a start of a heatwave. lols...I never ever said a heatwave was starting this week, you are making yourself look foolish, please stop embarrassing yourself Go to dictionary.com, and look up the word "irony". Im not mocking the heatwave call, im mocking you getting bent out of shape about someone "misinterpreting" your calls when you flat out lie about other posts. But if you'd like to keep burying your head in the sand, and need this to make yourself feel better, have at it. Everyone else is wrong, you are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 uh duh read my post....today I hit 91, this may be a start of a heatwave. lols...I never ever said a heatwave was starting this week, you are making yourself look foolish, please stop embarrassing yourself For some in NJ today will be either the 3rd or 2nd 90 (+) day assuming we get enough sun. NYC/EWR fell just short (89) but will easily get there today if we can avoid mostly cloudy conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 link please You are calling it a hot summer and it's only July 12th yet you complained about some other posters that were saying the hottest part of this summer is over and we're moving toward fall now. I don't feel like looking through all these threads. Maybe this post jogged your memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 For some in NJ today will be either the 3rd or 2nd 90 (+) day assuming we get enough sun. NYC/EWR fell just short (89) but will easily get there today if we can avoid mostly cloudy conditions. wiill easily hit 90 here in northern middlesex county - already 86 at 10:30 am yesterday we reached 91 - as for sunday - wouldn't be surprised if some areas yet to be determined get very little precip less then .10 and others get 1/2 - 1 inch or more amounts all depends how things set up with the showers and storms.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 wiill easily hit 90 here in northern middlesex county - already 86 at 10:30 am yesterday we reached 91 - as for sunday - wouldn't be surprised if some areas yet to be determined get very little precip less then .10 and others get 1/2 - 1 inch or more amounts all depends how things set up with the showers and storms.... Heat this week has been unimpressive though for most of the metro area (save for inland NNJ). My highest has been 86, Mon-Wed were 83. Today remains to be seen. I'm at 84 now; if we get enough sun, 90 is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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