Brian5671 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Do most of us remember forecasts late last week that said we'd be lucky to get into the 70s this week? now some spots may approach 90 over the next few days... it's the same pattern as last winter-the warmth over-performs and any cooldown is muted and underperforms....with the except of the 1st three weeks in June-we have been in an endless torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Seems possible but I wouldn't bank on anything until at least Friday. It could be 92 and sunny at this point So are we actually going to get a widespread rain on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 if the nam is right, our break in the 90 degree temps will have only lasted 3 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 if the nam is right, our break in the 90 degree temps will have only lasted 3 days If previous NAM verification trends are any indication, the NAM slightly underestimated temperatures 30+ hours out for the last 2 days before trending a bit warmer in the 24 hour range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 if the nam is right, our break in the 90 degree temps will have only lasted 3 days Yeah i think once past today the only thing stopping us from getting to and above 90 (thu - sun) would be clouds/storms. Looking like guidance is also trending hotter by Mon - fri (7/16 - 7/20) next week, peaking wed/thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 its noticeably more humid today. Dewpoint currently at 67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 West based -NAO blocking has been a very stubborn feature since we turned the calendars to meteorological summer. Interestingly enough we've seen a -NAO for the past several summers. I don't see it as much of a clue for the ensuing winter; we could easily flip to positive again by mid autumn. The excessive warmth that initiated across North America in late 2011 basically continues unabated. Will be interesting to see when we finally see some cool anomalies dominating on our continent. I don't think it'll be for the next month at least -- August should be very warm for the CONUS as well IMO. The pattern here looks like a very warm/humid one with more storminess in the medium range. We'll reach the 90s but I'm not seeing another 3-5 day stretch of blistering 95+ heat for the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 NAM will be right. Dry conditions will maximize surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 NAM will be right. Dry conditions will maximize surface temps. Central Park has been world's apart form the central park of June. Temps much more uniform with LGA and EWR now. All it takes is some scorched earth and we're back on track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 didn't expect a mT airmass today. Feels Augustian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 This looks like the most humid air of the summer so far moving in by Sunday. The models are hinting at dewpoints above 70 degrees. Even though the GFS may be overdone on its moisture, we could see PW's around 2.00 in and locally very heavy downpours with any convection that may form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Towers going up in Eastern PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 The lawns are really starting to get disgusting outside, several missed rain opportunities, barely had a drop the past two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 The lawns are really starting to get disgusting outside, several missed rain opportunities, barely had a drop the past two weeks. endless torch will do that...dry begets dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Nice stretch of weather this week. 83F the past few days with nights in the low 60s here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 endless torch will do that...dry begets dry Yeah I completely agree, endless torch FTW, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 The lawns are really starting to get disgusting outside, several missed rain opportunities, barely had a drop the past two weeks. isn't it better this way? much less yard work endless torch will do that...dry begets dry me thinks that ends next week as the tropical like feed really opens up on the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 the euro has 850 temps near +20c by wed... same old song and dance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 12z euro moved towards its ensembles and the gfs now for Sunday. Has a wet day for the majority of the early hours to mid afternoon. .75" ish of rain from 2AM to 2PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 12z euro moved towards its ensembles and the gfs now for Sunday. Has a wet day for the majority of the early hours to mid afternoon. .75" ish of rain from 2AM to 2PM. we need all we can get before the next surge of heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 the euro has 850 temps near +20c by wed... same old song and dance Tuesday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 that bermuda high is going to mean high dewpoints Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 we need all we can get before the next surge of heat In all fairness, the actual heat ridge is well west of the area and the hottest temps are midwest and west. Tuesday and Wednesday are both 95+ degrees on euro but its not from a ridge or sustained heat source. But regardless, its still hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 that bermuda high is going to mean high dewpoints 95+ and dew points in the 70s feels far worse than 100+ and dews in the mid 60s, so this may be the most uncomfortable stretch we've seen thus far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 95+ and dew points in the 70s feels far worse than 100+ and dews in the mid 60s, so this may be the most uncomfortable stretch we've seen thus far. Dew Points start rising by tomorrow and keep increasing through all of next week. Even days of 88-92 will feel uncomfortable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 if i'm not mistaken, we really didn't have a strong bermuda sfc high last summer or during summer 2010. it probably explains some of the complaints about a lack of widespread convection... we get the most activity when there's moist southerly/sw'erly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I still have my doubts about Sunday and the amount of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 I still have my doubts about Sunday and the amount of rain Theve gotten a decent amount of rani down by DC/BWI/VA the last few days. I dont see why we couldnt have a similar setup on Sunday.. When its sunny we're going to be failry warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Probably why we're sitting at only a 30% chance. The Euro has jumped on board at least giving us just under an inch. Of course that really won't do a heck of a lot. Unwatered grass is crunchy and brown at this point. I still have my doubts about Sunday and the amount of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 so the heat is returning? wow so many people wasted so much energy arguing with me about that and the below normal temps they thought were going to happen. Looks like we could hit 90 tomorrow and Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.