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July 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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lol at the people still saying the high temps are below normal when the high temps were above normal yesterday and will pretty much be no worse than average today before bouncing up a bit more later in the week.

dont get why so much parsing over me saying it is not going to be below normal this week....just accept it even though you wish you were right

and did I see a post saying summer is basically waning...hello its only July 10. Would you say that January 10 even though the days are getting longer then?

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lol at the people still saying the high temps are below normal when the high temps were above normal yesterday and will pretty much be no worse than average today before bouncing up a bit more later in the week.

dent get why so much parsing over me saying it is not going to be below normal this week....just accept it even though you wish you were right

and did I see a post saying summer is basically waning...hello its only July 10. Would you say that January 10 even though the days are getting longer then?

Idk did you?

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The NAEFS which have been very accurate this year indicate a warm pattern for the 3rd week of July across NA:

poeabn_h264.00.gif

The NAEFS really nailed the winter-time pattern.... A few days ago, when the NAEFS also covered the weekend and early next week, the area of above average temps was even larger with higher probabilities. We're not going into another 11 day heat wave but the time period coming up is definitely a warmer than average one, ensuring a warmer than average July. As proof that the NAEFS doesn't "always just show warmth", it had this week with average temperatures from its medium range outlook a while back.

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Meanwhile Upton is going with near 70 for lows tonight and 90 by Thursday for highs. The forecast is for upper 60s both tomorrow night and Thursday night but if that doesn't occur it has to be one of the longer stretches to open July in recent memory.

Actually KNYC looks the warmest today at 86.

Second day of 83F high here. Not bad outside.

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Do most of us remember forecasts late last week that said we'd be lucky to get into the 70s this week? now some spots may approach 90 over the next few days...

I don't remember forecasts saying we'd be lucky to get into the 70s, most forecasts I've seen were calling for something around upper 70s-mid 80s. And that busted as well with temperatures remaining around the upper 80s-90 degrees through this week with more 90s showing up for the longer range except for the stormier days.

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2nd day in a row that Caldwell and Somerville have been the two warm spots, 87/88 respectively...EWR running at a chilly 85

I was 89 and 88. I think EWR, being further E/NE and closer to Newark Bay, they may have had a localized sea breeze.

Nah, it could have only been the result of cloud cover. Lol.

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the gfs has moved closer to the euro and shows a hot pattern starting early next week. i like our convective chances this time due to a stronger bermuda high helping to advect high theta-e air into our region

Lets not get our hopes up for storms until we actually see them develop in our area. Alot of missed opportunities this year and im not being suckered into any chances till a actually see them headed for my area

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