BxEngine Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 thank you...this was what I was referencing...heard this on WCTC this morning. and as for rain...yes I saw some posts last week saying we were getting 3-5 inches of rain this week and below normal temps Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 thank you...this was what I was referencing...heard this on WCTC this morning. and as for rain...yes I saw some posts last week saying we were getting 3-5 inches of rain this week and below normal temps severe bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 My NWS point and click forecast looks good, normal to below normal and not a dreaded 90 degree day in sight Tonight Partly cloudy, with a low around 68. South wind 5 to 9 mph becoming calm after midnight. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 82. Northeast wind 6 to 9 mph becoming south in the afternoon. Tuesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 69. South wind 6 to 10 mph. Wednesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 79. East wind 5 to 11 mph. Wednesday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 65. Southeast wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable after midnight. Thursday Sunny, with a high near 80. Thursday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 70. Friday Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Friday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 70. Saturday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 78. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Saturday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 71. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 79. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Sunday Night A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 72. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Monday Mostly sunny, with a high near 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Link? I didn't see such posts in this thread, I haven't looked in others, but the closest I saw, which still was far from making such a forecast, was a post by Snowlover76 which wasn't a forecast that the week will be rainy/cool, but just showed what the ECM had on that day's run which had cool temps for this week (which by the way the ECM exaggerated and the GFS underestimated) and a CPC map that in the day it was posted had the region cooler than average for this week. Despite some models exaggerating this week's cooler temps, I don't remember any model showing a LOT of rain this week, although the models did have more rain for the second half of this week a few days ago than they do now (for example, 7/5 GFS 6z run), which also resulted in cooler modeled temperatures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Euro was posted as being ominous to heat lovers...Are temps in the mid to upper 80s a threat to heat lovers...there were 18z runs of the GFS that showed 3-5 inches...why bother posting that..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Euro was posted as being ominous to heat lovers...Are temps in the mid to upper 80s a threat to heat lovers...there were 18z runs of the GFS that showed 3-5 inches...why bother posting that..lol. So either you are admitting you dont understand the difference between discussing model runs and issuing a forecast, or you are trolling and are lying on purpose (which you've done in the recent past, making claims of people forecasting 30s). Either option makes you look pretty silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 actually no there was a guy with that trough in late June that said upper 30s according to the models people also are deleting posts like long range model post like this one that I found because I quoted it.... ag3, on 29 June 2012 - 01:59 PM, said: The end of the run brings in the huge trough again with blocking and a closed ULL; But the period before that has very impressive heat. well we got the heat but that huge trough would be around this time frame this week and its not going to pan out. the poster NEextreme insists we will have below normal temperatures the last two weeks of July but I still have not figured out what he is basing it on...I guess he is really into hugging JB I have never wavered or questioned that this week would have normal temps, yet people were nitpicking with me that we would be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Post links or stop the BS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Isotherm, on 6 July 2012 - 01:07 PM, said: Did you see the 12z GFS for next week -- absolutely destroys our area with 3-5"+ rains Wed-Sat. Looks like a lot of tropical moisture getting involves. I agree about the next burst of heat likely after the 15th. ag3....The whole eastern half of the USA gets into a wet period on the guidance and the Heat stays west of that boundary for the next 7-10 days at least. Of course, this is after tomorrow's potential record hot day. so these are model runs that were posted, yes they were not forecasts but interesting that anything that shows a rainy solution or cooler ends up being posted while the other 9 out of 10 runs that do not are sort of ignored. Basically there wasnt a lot of posting of model runs when the rain went bye bye for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Isotherm, on 6 July 2012 - 01:07 PM, said: Did you see the 12z GFS for next week -- absolutely destroys our area with 3-5"+ rains Wed-Sat. Looks like a lot of tropical moisture getting involves. I agree about the next burst of heat likely after the 15th. ag3....The whole eastern half of the USA gets into a wet period on the guidance and the Heat stays west of that boundary for the next 7-10 days at least. Of course, this is after tomorrow's potential record hot day. so these are model runs that were posted, yes they were not forecasts but interesting that anything that shows a rainy solution or cooler ends up being posted while the other 9 out of 10 runs that do not are sort of ignored. Basically there wasnt a lot of posting of model runs when the rain went bye bye for the area. You must not know how to read....Go back and read my posts Mr Hedi Jones fan ...I wrote NEAR to slightly below normal last two weeks of July. This guy use to post on another board about how he thought Hedi Jones was the best forecaster out there ... enough said.. i say ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Amy Freeze is my new squeeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Warlock atleast multi quote.....have no idea what ur trying to say...ag3 basically gives us updates on what the models say in long range.....why take direct quotes and put them against reality, when all it was model discussion....can we no do that on here? Is that not okay with u? Hottest day behind us thankgod Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Btw what happened to the heat (90+ ) some were talking about for Friday into the weekend? ECM has 90 degree heat Fri-Sat, Mon (Sun is cooler due to rain) Cool biased GFS which sometimes overestimates rain coverage area has upper 80s-low 90s DGEX continues to build ridge that NAM starts to build, has 90 degree weather. I don't hug individual details of the DGEX but it's within the consensus to build the ridge into the region. The risk of scattered storm activity and more moisture will prevent this from being as hot as the previous heat wave(s) but this certainly spells a period of above average temperatures coming up, with parts of the area reaching the 90s during some days in this time period, and easily leads to a warmer than average July. Unless I'm mistaken and a 588-594 dm ridge with warm 850mb temps and no strong cool air mass in sight means that the rest of July is near-slightly below average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 today's dailies - it may be time to play some numbers for lotto. NYC: 86/73 (+4) EWR: 87/73(+3) LGA: 86/73 (+3) JFK: 84/73 (+4) TTN: 86/73 (+4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 today's dailies - it may be time to play some numbers for lotto. NYC: 86/73 (+4) EWR: 87/73(+3) LGA: 86/73 (+3) JFK: 84/73 (+4) TTN: 86/73 (+4) And it felt so nice and comfortable. Now +4 in July is comfortable lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 today's dailies - it may be time to play some numbers for lotto. NYC: 86/73 (+4) EWR: 87/73(+3) LGA: 86/73 (+3) JFK: 84/73 (+4) TTN: 86/73 (+4) There is a fair chance you will be wrong on some of those minimums as the day is not over and the dewpoints are pretty low...also, the day does not end for climatological purposes until 1:00 AM with the clocks having been pushed ahead... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Warlock atleast multi quote.....have no idea what ur trying to say...ag3 basically gives us updates on what the models say in long range.....why take direct quotes and put them against reality, when all it was model discussion....can we no do that on here? Is that not okay with u? Hottest day behind us thankgod Winterwarlock is delusional. I gave the model output analysis. Never said it was my forecast. P.S. euro nailed this weeks average to below average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 And it felt so nice and comfortable. Now +4 in July is comfortable lol. The high temps are a couple degrees below normal. Let's see what the low temps are by 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 11PM obs NYC: 75 EWR: 76 LGA: 77 JFK: 73 (may get lower) TTN: 75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 11PM obs NYC: 75 EWR: 76 LGA: 77 JFK: 73 (may get lower) TTN: 75 I believe it's until 1am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Still a solid 40 days or so left with the potential for extreme heat. In the NYC / LI area I mark August 20th as the general "cutoff" date, just as I make February 20th the cutoff for exceptional cold. Tommorrow is sort of like the January 10th of summer, one could say. <Please don't reply with a barrage of posts as to how it can get exceptionally hot in September; I know it can...but generally speaking, by August 20th, the worst is almost always over> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The high temps are a couple degrees below normal. Let's see what the low temps are by 1am. site....high..normal EWR: 87 (86) +1 NYC: 86 (84) +2 LGA: 86 (85) +1 JFK: 84 (83) +1 TTN: 86 (85) + 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Winterwarlock is delusional. I gave the model output analysis. Never said it was my forecast. P.S. euro nailed this weeks average to below average temps. Id think the period 7/9 - 7/15 finishes above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 11PM obs NYC: 75 EWR: 76 LGA: 77 JFK: 73 (may get lower) TTN: 75 NWS Upton @ 65 F and Westhampton @ 64 F at 11:00 PM...the UHI has made significant inroads in Suffolk County over the last 50 years...though not to the point of the Soylent Green envisioned minima now commonplace in NYC. "Still over ninety out there..." Robert Thorne, NYC, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Id think the period 7/9 - 7/15 finishes above normal. CPC strongly agrees. <Edit...meant post 7/15...though you might still be right about the period you brought up> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Still a solid 40 days or so left with the potential for extreme heat. In the NYC / LI area I mark August 20th as the general "cutoff" date, just as I make February 20th the cutoff for exceptional cold. Tommorrow is sort of like the January 10th of summer, one could say. <Please don't reply with a barrage of posts as to how it can get exceptionally hot in September; I know it can...but generally speaking, by August 20th, the worst is almost always over> Very True Statements.. What sadden's me is that around now one can visually realize that we've begun losing minutes of light per day.. Come August especially by the mid to late part of the month by 7pm, you know summer is seriously winding down.. As a kid, i didn't LOVE summer- i mean i liked it - but didn't realize what it was really all about.. Now as an adult, while i still like winter snowstorms, i'd much prefer warmer weather to cold miserable days where you can't do much on the weekends outside.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Id think the period 7/9 - 7/15 finishes above normal. If temperatures over the next 3 days end up slightly below average, it would most likely be due to the overnight lows, as high temps are generally near average. It's probably going to be the next round of warmth starting Friday that drags the 7/9-15 time period above average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 If temperatures over the next 3 days end up slightly below average, it would most likely be due to the overnight lows, as high temps are generally near average. It's probably going to be the next round of warmth starting Friday that drags the 7/9-15 time period above average. Thats exactly what im thinking. mon - wed near normal. thu - sun above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 ECM has 90 degree heat Fri-Sat, Mon (Sun is cooler due to rain) Cool biased GFS which sometimes overestimates rain coverage area has upper 80s-low 90s DGEX continues to build ridge that NAM starts to build, has 90 degree weather. I don't hug individual details of the DGEX but it's within the consensus to build the ridge into the region. The risk of scattered storm activity and more moisture will prevent this from being as hot as the previous heat wave(s) but this certainly spells a period of above average temperatures coming up, with parts of the area reaching the 90s during some days in this time period, and easily leads to a warmer than average July. Unless I'm mistaken and a 588-594 dm ridge with warm 850mb temps and no strong cool air mass in sight means that the rest of July is near-slightly below average... I think you mean slightly above average? Which I do agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jefflaw77 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 How is Saturday looking? I have a party to go to.. I don't even care if it's some what overcast.. I just hope it doesn't really rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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