winterwarlock Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 wait how can you say that...werent we assured by several people getting back into the 90s would not be happening...lol anyway for some in Central Jersey yesterday was 11 straight days of 90 plus temps the longest since 1999 which was 12 and I think that is the all time record for consecutive days yes this summer has been hot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEXtreme Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Maybe a short lived heat wave if we get 3 straight days of 90 but doesn't last long and no where near as hot as the previews heat if it actually happens. Not surprising the EURO is warmer as it aways is when showing heat in the long range. The GFS is cooler. Btw what happened to the heat (90+ ) some were talking about for Friday into the weekend? No doubt the hottest weather has past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 It would be hard pressed to get hotter than what we've seen but several more heat waves are possible this summer, not as intense or long lasting probably, but still very hot (95-98F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The pattern really changed for us right around June 20th with Newark recording (12) 95 degree or higher days since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Unfortunately the GFS and Euro are both bone dry for the foreseeable future. 94 local weather bug and 91 at new brunswick...78 and feels great now! Less humidity today...but sun was def strong...lawns burning up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 wait how can you say that...werent we assured by several people getting back into the 90s would not be happening...lol anyway for some in Central Jersey yesterday was 11 straight days of 90 plus temps the longest since 1999 which was 12 and I think that is the all time record for consecutive days yes this summer has been hot The only official station in our area that has see 11 consecutive days of 90F is Newark. Most places had it broken 1 or 2 times by upper 80s. No doubt it's been a hot stretch, but the 11 consecutive day thing is only true for about 10% of the metro area probably. Additionally, the NWS forecast for the upcoming week is generally low 80s in NYC: http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.78262115769851&lon=-73.96682739257812&site=okx&unit=0&lg=&FcstType=text I'm not buying another heat pulse as strong as what we just experienced. I think we'll see more 90s this month, but the core of the heat should remain in the Plains/Rockies. Looks like a predominately near normal pattern for the forseeable future, with increased wetness in the day 7+ period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The only official station in our area that has see 11 consecutive days of 90F is Newark. Most places had it broken 1 or 2 times by upper 80s. No doubt it's been a hot stretch, but the 11 consecutive day thing is only true for about 10% of the metro area probably. Additionally, the NWS forecast for the upcoming week is generally low 80s in NYC: http://forecast.weat...=&FcstType=text I'm not buying another heat pulse as strong as what we just experienced. I think we'll see more 90s this month, but the core of the heat should remain in the Plains/Rockies. Looks like a predominately near normal pattern for the forseeable future, with increased wetness in the day 7+ period. with all the dry ground over the CONUS, I might think the heat will build a bit faster and when it has a chance to come east, lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Maybe a short lived heat wave if we get 3 straight days of 90 but doesn't last long and no where near as hot as the previews heat if it actually happens. Not surprising the EURO is warmer as it aways is when showing heat in the long range. The GFS is cooler. Btw what happened to the heat (90+ ) some were talking about for Friday into the weekend? No doubt the hottest weather has past. Which period last week or this coming week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The models are already pulling back a bit on the cooler pattern that they had for later this week into next weekend. If we get enough sun and some SW winds, Newark will make it to around 90 with 850's getting above 16c like the Euro ensembles are showing. Too many clouds and a less favorable flow would probably mean Newark would get stuck in the upper 80's which is still a few degrees above normal for this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 with all the dry ground over the CONUS, I might think the heat will build a bit faster and when it has a chance to come east, lookout. There is model disagreement regarding the Northeastern part of the US. I have no doubt we'll see more 90s this month, but I think they'll be less intense and shorter duration than what we experienced already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Yep. Very true. It will be alot easier to build the heat around here with the dry weather and drought conditions over much of the rest of the country. Yesterday I mentioned EWR was unlikely to have a below 85 degree day this week. And it might end up that they hit at least 87 each day except for maybe Wednesday. with all the dry ground over the CONUS, I might think the heat will build a bit faster and when it has a chance to come east, lookout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 These dry conditions will cause models to bust low on temps. We need rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The models are already pulling back a bit on the cooler pattern that they had for later this week into next weekend. If we get enough sun and some SW winds, Newark will make it to around 90 with 850's getting above 16c like the Euro ensembles are showing. Too many clouds and a less favorable flow would probably mean Newark would get stuck in the upper 80's which is still a few degrees above normal for this week. Looks warm/humid given HP orientation. Probably near avg highs and elevated lows, biased a bit above. Depends on how much moisture gets in the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The only official station in our area that has see 11 consecutive days of 90F is Newark. Most places had it broken 1 or 2 times by upper 80s. No doubt it's been a hot stretch, but the 11 consecutive day thing is only true for about 10% of the metro area probably. Additionally, the NWS forecast for the upcoming week is generally low 80s in NYC: http://forecast.weat...=&FcstType=text I'm not buying another heat pulse as strong as what we just experienced. I think we'll see more 90s this month, but the core of the heat should remain in the Plains/Rockies. Looks like a predominately near normal pattern for the forseeable future, with increased wetness in the day 7+ period. A few sites (TTN, TEB, LGA) missed the streak by a degree (89) last Mon or Tue but overall I think the heat and ridge over performed coming quicker by the 29th of June and sustaining through the 8th. The heat is broke and we fall back to normal for much of this week and we may even get an onshore flow by wed/thu but I think the 10 day period starting the 9th - 19th is still in an overall warmer than normal one. The period on/around the 16th could see another potential spike in heat that might be sustained for several days. I was a bit surprised that guidance and the pattern is less wet this week from what it was looking like and this could see temps outperform guidance assuming we're mainly sunny. We should see an increase in storms and rain chances by the weekend (7/14) but with that comes the higher humidity and when its sunny the heat. it'll be intersting to see if the ecm sustains the heat signal for 16th - 19th period. Im starting to think my summer cast of near normal is going up in flames and we get the hat trick for 3 straight hot summers similar to 93 - 95 (2010 - 2012) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 A few sites (TTN, TEB, LGA) missed the streak by a degree (89) last Mon or Tue but overall I think the heat and ridge over performed coming quicker by the 29th of June and sustaining through the 8th. The heat is broke and we fall back to normal for much of this week and we may even get an onshore flow by wed/thu but I think the 10 day period starting the 9th - 19th is still in an overall warmer than normal one. The period on/around the 16th could see another potential spike in heat that might be sustained for several days. I was a bit surprised that guidance and the pattern is less wet this week from what it was looking like and this could see temps outperform guidance assuming we're mainly sunny. We should see an increase in storms and rain chances by the weekend (7/14) but with that comes the higher humidity and when its sunny the heat. it'll be intersting to see if the ecm sustains the heat signal for 16th - 19th period. Im starting to think my summer cast of near normal is going up in flames and we get the hat trick for 3 straight hot summers similar to 93 - 95 (2010 - 2012) Yeah I'm interested to see how this pattern evolves as well. I thought the country would be a torch for the summer, but near normal overall in the Northeast. The -NAO continues relentlessly as well. The resultant impact for June was normal NE, cool SE, but the July final picture will probably be a warmer one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The only official station in our area that has see 11 consecutive days of 90F is Newark. Most places had it broken 1 or 2 times by upper 80s. No doubt it's been a hot stretch, but the 11 consecutive day thing is only true for about 10% of the metro area probably. Additionally, the NWS forecast for the upcoming week is generally low 80s in NYC: http://forecast.weat...=&FcstType=text I'm not buying another heat pulse as strong as what we just experienced. I think we'll see more 90s this month, but the core of the heat should remain in the Plains/Rockies. Looks like a predominately near normal pattern for the forseeable future, with increased wetness in the day 7+ period. The last time Newark hit 100 during July 1-10 was 2010. When the heat finally returned again after a break, the high at Newark was about 4 degrees lower than the early month peak. 1999 saw a return to heat after the hot early start and it's highs were about 3 degrees lower later in the month. So the idea is that the returning heat won't get quite as hot as earlier in the month is a pattern that we have seen before in July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 But they did hit 100 on 7/4/02 and then went on to hit 95 12 more times including another 100 in mid august then the heat broke in late august, early september but returned for much of that month. All 3 months were in the +2-+2.5 range. July 2002 was also exceptionally dry. The only different was the heat waves were mostly short (3-4 days) in duration with breaks in between. The last time Newark hit 100 during July 1-10 was 2010. When the heat finally returned again after a break, the high at Newark was about 4 degrees lower than the early month peak. 1999 saw a return to heat after the scorching early start and it's highs were several degrees lower later in the month. So the idea is that the returning heat won't get quite as hot as earlier in the month is a pattern that we have seen before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 With this past heat wave behind us, the entire area is sitting at +6.6 to +8 for July, so far. That's total negative departures of +52 to +72. Would require a big time cooldown to even get close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 But they did hit 100 on 7/4/02 and then went on to hit 95 12 more times including another 100 in mid august then the heat broke in late august, early september but returned for much of that month. All 3 months were in the +2-+2.5 range. July 2002 was also exceptionally dry. The only different was the heat waves were mostly short (3-4 days) in duration with breaks in between. The reduction in 2010 was at least 103 if not higher down to 99 later in July. In 1999 it was 103 down to 100. So after the 102 at Newark a few days ago the next push would be about 3 or 4 degrees off the 102 high if the relationship holds this time around.And I see 100 down to 98 in July of 2002 there like you mentioned. So more 95 degree or higher days would fit the pattern there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Yeah its not going to happen. Most likely going to end up around +3 if the heat doesn't return later in the month. If it does for an extended period we could be looking at another +5 With this past heat wave behind us, the entire area is sitting at +6.6 to +8 for July, so far. That's total negative departures of +52 to +72. Would require a big time cooldown to even get close to normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 wait how can you say that...werent we assured by several people getting back into the 90s would not be happening...lol anyway for some in Central Jersey yesterday was 11 straight days of 90 plus temps the longest since 1999 which was 12 and I think that is the all time record for consecutive days yes this summer has been hot I dont remember people saying no more 90's....just that the hottest day of year is probably behind us...if u think newark gets above 102 or edison 99 again this summer, good luck. Rain did not go poof on models..its been model for se region since last week. Last week was hot....probably hottest week of summer....by the end of summer we can judge...you would be all over poster if they said it has been a snowy winter, after 10 inches in one week and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Clouds clinging to c/s-nj but should begin to clear in the next couple of hours. Temps hovering in the low/mid 80s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Late last week the GFS had us getting alot of rain this week, then it pushed it back to the weekend. Now its pretty much gone altogether I dont remember people saying no more 90's....just that the hottest day of year is probably behind us...if u think newark gets above 102 or edison 99 again this summer, good luck. Rain did not go poof on models..its been model for se region since last week. Last week was hot....probably hottest week of summer....by the end of summer we can judge...you would be all over poster if they said it has been a snowy winter, after 10 inches in one week and nothing else Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The only official station in our area that has see 11 consecutive days of 90F is Newark. Most places had it broken 1 or 2 times by upper 80s. No doubt it's been a hot stretch, but the 11 consecutive day thing is only true for about 10% of the metro area probably. FWIW, New Brunswick has also reached 90 or higher for the past 11 days. This is the second longest string in 100 years of record (12 being the record). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 This is how things are going to be from now on I guess, well above normal temperatures nearly every month, which means this winter is probably going to be another stinker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 This is how things are going to be from now on I guess, well above normal temperatures nearly every month, which means this winter is probably going to be another stinker. The climate is cyclical my friend we'll get a string of below normal months eventually. Its just not gonna be above normal for months and months more on end from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 The climate is cyclical my friend we'll get a string of below normal months eventually. Its just not gonna be above normal for months and months more on end from here on out. The trend is not our friend. Like the Dow Jones in the 1990s, the overall trend is up with occasional dips downward mixed in. Not what a snow obsessed person like me wants to hear but I'm also a realist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 the euro shows 90s on friday with above normal temps and SW surface flow through the end of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 NYC narrowly pulled ahead of 1991 for the warmest first half of the year. JFK enjoyed a wider of a margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 FWIW, New Brunswick has also reached 90 or higher for the past 11 days. This is the second longest string in 100 years of record (12 being the record). thank you...this was what I was referencing...heard this on WCTC this morning. and as for rain...yes I saw some posts last week saying we were getting 3-5 inches of rain this week and below normal temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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