Guest Pamela Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 It is pretty hard to keep the temperature under 80 F on a sunny day in July at sea level around here...no matter how chilly the anticyclone initially was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 EWR running too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 EWR running too warm. Fanning the flames? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 What heat, it made it to 82 here in the catskills before a thunder shower dropped us to 68. After that I never made out of the low 70s I guess at some point we were 30 degrees cooler than JFK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 What heat, it made it to 82 here in the catskills before a thunder shower dropped us to 68. After that I never made out of the low 70s I guess at some point we were 30 degrees cooler than JFK. Yup. Was maybe 78 where I am this morning then it rained for 2 hours and cooled to 69. Warmed to maybe 75 but other than a passing shower felt like October. Storms passed to my southwest but it rained enough to prevent swimming. Lame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Yup. Was maybe 78 where I am this morning then it rained for 2 hours and cooled to 69. Warmed to maybe 75 but other than a passing shower felt like October. Storms passed to my southwest but it rained enough to prevent swimming. Lame. Fyi my location is 10 miles north of Monticello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 NAM once again overdone for NY locations. Friday's NAM runs had 102-104 over NYC and surrounding areas. The formula lately has been to look for the highest temperature the NAM is showing for the day or two ahead around our area and take 1-2degrees off for the high and apply it to Newark. The NAM had around 103-104 NE NJ and 102 verified. JFK surged to 99 on the edge of the outflow yesterday. Also take the Euro and NAM 850's a day or two ahead and shave off a degree or two and it verifies. The decaying early MCS was a surprise for the models so the temps would have been a little higher without all the cloud cover. Even though they upgraded the GFS, the 2 tm temperatures are still way too cool. I attached the 24 hr forecast from Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 The formula lately has been to look for the highest temperature the NAM is showing for the day or two ahead around our area and take 1-2degrees off for the high and apply it to Newark. The NAM had around 103-104 NE NJ and 102 verified. JFK surged to 99 on the edge of the outflow yesterday. Also take the Euro and NAM 850's a day or two ahead and shave off a degree or two and it verifies. The decaying early MCS was a surprise for the models so the temps would have been a little higher without all the cloud cover. Even though they upgraded the GFS, the 2 tm temperatures are still way too cool. I attached the 24 hr forecast from Friday. The GFS has been having this cool 2m temperature bias for quite a while. For some reason it has difficulties portraying heat waves on its 2m temp maps by showing broken areas of low-mid 90s when the result is usually upper 90s and sometimes 100s. While the NAM sometimes exaggerates heat a bit as it did on 6/20-21 and 6/28, I still find it closer to reality than the GFS when it comes to heat waves. Yesterday clearly had potential to be hotter than it was as temperatures were already in the upper 90s in most of NYC around 1-2 PM, which is earlier than when temperatures usually peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Perfect summer week coming up. Could be the best golfing week of the year!!!! :tomato: :drunk: :bike: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Fyi my location is 10 miles north of Monticello I'm in fallsburg at around 1,450 ft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 NYC again very accurate under dry conditions. Matches LGA more and more frequently now. I dont think the equipment and readigs are inaccurate it just isnt the best representation of the nyc/nj area for temps and heat waves. Although its only 4 - 5 behind in 90 degree days so far this year and three of those were with 89.5 readings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Looks like a dry warm week ahead...not much to track locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 It is pretty hard to keep the temperature under 80 F on a sunny day in July at sea level around here...no matter how chilly the anticyclone initially was. I know of one day the temperature stayed below 70 on a Sunny July day...July 5th 1979...69/53 max/min...NW winds...some fair weather clouds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I'm in fallsburg at around 1,450 ft. Oh wow. I've been driving through falsburg the past two days to and from the hotel. This area is so economically depressed its sad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Oh wow. I've been driving through falsburg the past two days to and from the hotel. This area is so economically depressed its sad. Used to be a lot of beautiful courses up there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Used to be a lot of beautiful courses up there Yea supposedly there are still a few around. In between the Jewish bungalows and pizza shops and next to the crack houses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Yea supposedly there are still a few around. In between the Jewish bungalows and pizza shops and next to the crack houses. Was a nice resort area a half century ago.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 The formula lately has been to look for the highest temperature the NAM is showing for the day or two ahead around our area and take 1-2degrees off for the high and apply it to Newark. The NAM had around 103-104 NE NJ and 102 verified. JFK surged to 99 on the edge of the outflow yesterday. Also take the Euro and NAM 850's a day or two ahead and shave off a degree or two and it verifies. The decaying early MCS was a surprise for the models so the temps would have been a little higher without all the cloud cover. Even though they upgraded the GFS, the 2 tm temperatures are still way too cool. I attached the 24 hr forecast from Friday. NAM had 103 right on top of NYC/LGA on Friday. Busted by 6 degrees. Not 1-2 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Regardless its beautiful morning up here. No humidity and sunny skies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 I dont think the equipment and readigs are inaccurate it just isnt the best representation of the nyc/nj area for temps and heat waves. Although its only 4 - 5 behind in 90 degree days so far this year and three of those were with 89.5 readings. When it matches LGA or is within 1-2 degrees of it, its 100% accurate. The past few days, LGA and NYC have been nearly identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 NAM had 103 right on top of NYC/LGA on Friday. Busted by 6 degrees. Not 1-2 degrees. I said take the local max subtract a degree or two and apply it to Newark. I think that the NAM may have been too cool or close for JFK which made to 99. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Yea supposedly there are still a few around. In between the Jewish bungalows and pizza shops and next to the crack houses. They are all gone. Concord nevele etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Oh wow. I've been driving through falsburg the past two days to and from the hotel. This area is so economically depressed its sad. Head up to Delaware and Scholarie countyand it gets worse. Hurricane Irene did not help them out at all. Some good ski areas up there near Greene and Ulster counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 They are all gone. Concord nevele etc. Gone are the Shecky Green's."... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Nevele had a championship course, one of the most beautiful in the world. Now its flooded and grown over, barely anything left that looks like a course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 NAM once again overdone for NY locations. Friday's NAM runs had 102-104 over NYC and surrounding areas. Just curious where you're getting that from? I remember looking at the MOS (a la this post, talking about the 00Z and 12Z runs on Friday -- http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/35266-july-2012-observations-and-discussions/page__st__140__p__1629400#entry1629400) and NYC was 99, ISP was 95, JFK was 99, and LGA was 102. Still slightly too warm but I don't remember 102-104 for NYC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Out of curiosity, I decided to gather all the archived MOS data for the major NYC sites from both the NAM and the GFS to see how they compared. The results are below: As one can see, both models had their problems, but with a cursory glance the GFS appears too low with the temperatures just as much as the NAM appeared too high. The 05/12Z run of the NAM was too warm across the board, but temperatures from other runs weren't really all that bad. The GFS completely blew JFK, and for whatever reason both models completely screwed up TEB, especially in latter runs. Comparing the 07/00Z runs, the GFS was off an average of 2.75F (in either direction, but mostly too low) while the NAM was off 3.25F (in either direction, but mostly too warm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Oh wow. I've been driving through falsburg the past two days to and from the hotel. This area is so economically depressed its sad. Yup it is ,I spent 34 out of 38 summers of my life in Sullivan county and it's a great place but economics and other factors have left this area in bad shape there are new developments with homes here and there and some bungalows around. But as far as attractions and hotels it's just not happening. I'll tell you this much I come alive when i get up here the weather is good, trees etc. when I get back to my much nicer home in Brooklyn in September it depresses me... Enjoy your weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxnyc Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Head up to Delaware and Scholarie countyand it gets worse. Hurricane Irene did not help them out at all. Some good ski areas up there near Greene and Ulster counties. Yup hurricane I Rene did tremendous damage up here, on a larger level places like Windham, fleichmanns etc. and locally I know at least 3 lake or ponds that had their dams burst and those are gone. I remember being very nervous about my house in Brooklyn while not even thinking it was going to be a problem up here in the Catskills. We have been having these 500 year floods happening every few years lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted July 8, 2012 Share Posted July 8, 2012 Clouds clearing from the area and temps should rise into the low 90s extending the heatwave another day for some 12 straight days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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