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July 2012 Observations and Discussions


NEG NAO

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Whya re conventional forecasts showing a nice, sunny and moderately hot 4th?

Upton mentions a risk of storms on Wednesday (discussion below), which is supported by most models. I haven't seen any forecast showing sunny/mostly sunny skies for Wednesday yet.

A NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE APPROACHES WED MORNING...THEN PUSHES

THROUGH WED AFTERNOON/EVENING...WITH CHANCE POP FOR SHRA/TSTMS

WITH ITS PASSAGE. RIDGING THEN BUILDS BACK IN ALOFT FROM LATE

WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI NIGHT...WITH DRY BUT INCREASINGLY WARM

CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE

APPROACHES SATURDAY...WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF IT.

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ECM looks hot again for Friday/Saturday with 850mb temps back up to 22C with the ensemble mean not too different. GFS doesn't show much change in surface temps but also has warmer 850mb temps moving through. It's been a bit hard to rely on specifics in the longer range models recently but if this surge verifies, temps probably warm up to 95-100 degrees again.

It's unfortunate that E-Wall still hasn't updated the DGEX runs still 6/23-25... fortunately I didn't miss the widespread 100 degree heat it shows on Raleigh Wx.

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Looks like a warm start to July then a cool end to July due to NAO going neutral to positive with developing EL Nino. July should average near normal imo.

These heat surges lately will probably be the hottest part of the summer through 2nd week of July. After that, I think the hottest weather of the summer has accrued.

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Looks like a warm start to July then a cool end to July due to NAO going neutral to positive with developing EL Nino. July should average near normal imo.

These heat surges lately will probably be the hottest part of the summer through 2nd week of July. After that, I think the hottest weather of the summer has accrued.

lets see how that works out for you

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lets see how that works out for you

Well he can be right and it still be hot the rest of july/aug, if for example a majority of sites rack up 100 (+ ) readings between the 4th and 8th which looks potentially reord criteria. That would make the period the hottest of the summer. Latest guidnace now inching the area into record highs 7/6 7/8.

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