lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 From Met Don Paul: Part of the Niagara Frontier is now under Moderate Drought conditions–a relative rarity: http://www.nrcc.cornell.edu/page_drought.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 13, 2012 Author Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hey they measure these droughts by departure from normal over a period of time, etc... The reality is that the top few feet of the soil is absolutely parched ...so to the naked eye it looks like a severe drought across a lot of this area. Low of 62 here...apparently headed to the upper 80's. HHH stereotyical day. From Met Don Paul: Part of the Niagara Frontier is now under Moderate Drought conditions–a relative rarity: http://www.nrcc.corn...ge_drought.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 Hey they measure these droughts by departure from normal over a period of time, etc... The reality is that the top few feet of the soil is absolutely parched ...so to the naked eye it looks like a severe drought across a lot of this area. Low of 62 here...apparently headed to the upper 80's. HHH stereotyical day. happy friday the 13th! Lol. I know they measure drought as departure from normal like you said, but man is the soil bone dry. It hurts my back to run on the grass because its SO hard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 13, 2012 Share Posted July 13, 2012 BUF trying to reach 90 this afternoon but may fall just short Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 "only" made it up to 88.5 here today. A little more humid though with dews in the mid 60s today as opposed to mid 40s yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Governer Cuomo urging residents to rafrain from any outdoor burning. http://www.governor.ny.gov/press/07132012-high-danger-wildfires Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ontario squalls Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Lots of dug wells in this area. Usually 15-25 ft deep. All the shallower ones are dry. Mine is 22ft and only about 4 ft left. Glad im also hooked up to public water supply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 Got some rain this morning! OK, it wasn't much, but it was something. Hoping for some real rain tomorrow. Rick might have got enough to wake his lawn up which he would love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 14, 2012 Author Share Posted July 14, 2012 Shocking development! It actually did rain lightly for a few hours. I'll guess maybe .2" at best..... Hazy sun is out now..... t Got some rain this morning! OK, it wasn't much, but it was something. Hoping for some real rain tomorrow. Rick might have got enough to wake his lawn up which he would love. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 14, 2012 Share Posted July 14, 2012 no rain here. so the drought continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 14, 2012 Author Share Posted July 14, 2012 Surprised to see that according to my rain gauge, it says we actually a full half inch (.5").... I guess it absorbed so fast that you couldn't tell. TBH, my lawn is so shot that I was just as happy not mowing. Now it will start to wake up a bit. Shocking development! It actually did rain lightly for a few hours. I'll guess maybe .2" at best..... Hazy sun is out now..... t Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 15, 2012 Share Posted July 15, 2012 Picked up .13" of rain since last night. Didnt and wont do a thing for the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 15, 2012 Author Share Posted July 15, 2012 .2" was it for me today. I inspected the rain gauge and there was some debris at the bottom of it so at best yesterday morning was .4". but that dried up very fast... So a bit of drought relief I guess, but not too impressive. Picked up .13" of rain since last night. Didnt and wont do a thing for the drought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 .2" was it for me today. I inspected the rain gauge and there was some debris at the bottom of it so at best yesterday morning was .4". but that dried up very fast... So a bit of drought relief I guess, but not too impressive. About the same here. Back to watering the garden tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 16, 2012 Author Share Posted July 16, 2012 I'll be in your area tomorrow ....hike club doing Mount Utsayantha fire tower... The point and click says 83 for high....though maybe cooler at 3214 feet. About the same here. Back to watering the garden tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Severe probs looks decent for BUF up into Northern NY on Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Severe probs looks decent for BUF up into Northern NY on Tuesday evening. Its not you, but how many times have a i heard that already this year? Prob a few garden variety showers lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 Its not you, but how many times have a i heard that already this year? Prob a few garden variety showers lol. It hasn't been a bad year for severe weather for the general area...but it has been lackluster around BUF itself. There was that high end severe event in NY in early June I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 NAM MOS is smoking hot tomorrow. 95 for BUF and IAG and 98 for ROC and DSV. GFS MOS is a relatively tame 87 for BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 16, 2012 Share Posted July 16, 2012 NAM MOS is smoking hot tomorrow. 95 for BUF and IAG and 98 for ROC and DSV. GFS MOS is a relatively tame 87 for BUF. Didnt the NAM have 100 for BUF a few fridays ago and we landed up hitting 89 or 90? And tuesday into wednesdays our best shot at rain but even the GFS with its elevated dewpoint problems isnt showing much at all. P.S. Lake effect season starts in a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Didnt the NAM have 100 for BUF a few fridays ago and we landed up hitting 89 or 90? And tuesday into wednesdays our best shot at rain but even the GFS with its elevated dewpoint problems isnt showing much at all. P.S. Lake effect season starts in a week The raw model had 100 degrees. MOS wasn't this warm last week. MOS uses the model but it factors in climo. It uses to multiple linear regression to determine temps wind etc...that's why it's better at forecasting temps than the model itself. 00z GFS MOS which has been running too cool is now up to 89 for tomorrow. 95 will be tough with a 20 kt WSW wind though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 The raw model had 100 degrees. MOS wasn't this warm last week. MOS uses the model but it factors in climo. It uses to multiple linear regression to determine temps wind etc...that's why it's better at forecasting temps than the model itself. 00z GFS MOS which has been running too cool is now up to 89 for tomorrow. 95 will be tough with a 20 kt WSW wind though. Yes it will be. I'm gonna actually go with 90 for KBUF because it always has a very hard time when theres a stiff SW breeze. Did you happen to catch wivb's vividcast on the 6 or 10 oclock news? Spit out 100 for a few locations in Niagara and Orleans counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Yes it will be. I'm gonna actually go with 90 for KBUF because it always has a very hard time when theres a stiff SW breeze. Did you happen to catch wivb's vividcast on the 6 or 10 oclock news? Spit out 100 for a few locations in Niagara and Orleans counties. nah I was working until 11pm. We might be dealing with a bit of clouds tomorrow, so I'm not convinced on the 100 degree temps. That being said, we will be starting out much warmer at 850 than we were during that last week when we did hit 90. BUF will above 20C by 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 new spc has outlook has slight risk for BUF...2% tornadoes for northern most areas...30% wind for central Erie County northward and 15% hail for central Erie County northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 new spc has outlook has slight risk for BUF...2% tornadoes for northern most areas...30% wind for central Erie County northward and 15% hail for central Erie County northward. Have a feeling they will fizzle by the time they get to me. Once they drop into that lake breeze they should start to die off or at least weaken. Someone around Youngstown might catch a nice boomer later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Have a feeling they will fizzle by the time they get to me. Once they drop into that lake breeze they should start to die off or at least weaken. Someone around Youngstown might catch a nice boomer later. the lake breeze shouldn't be a factor around 8pm to 11pm when the most favorable variables for severe thunderstorms occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 lake erie is at a record tying 76 degrees for the date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 the lake breeze shouldn't be a factor around 8pm to 11pm when the most favorable variables for severe thunderstorms occur. Well lets hope we can see some nice thunderstorms. I just dont see anything big happening here. Too damn dry. Idk though maybe, dews will be close to 70 and temps in the low to mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 87 here already. Several low 90s already in Niagara and Orleans counties, and its only 10:20 AM!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted July 17, 2012 Share Posted July 17, 2012 Holy hell, 91 at Rochester at 1045am and 94 in the 'cuse at 1030am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.