lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 10 straight days of 85-90 with sunshine. Does it get any better then this? I don't think so! This would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Eh not neccesarly... This past year Lake Erie was 80 degrees (All time warmest) but we didnt see any real significant lake effect events at all. If the lake gets up to or surpasses 80 this year which I think it will considering its already 75 degrees , i think well have a very good year in terms of lake effect. Last years pattern was just so god awful we couldnt get any cold air aloft for lake effect and when we did the air was much too dry or there was too much shear. With a weak Nino possible by the time we get to late fall winter I think it could be a very good year for cold and snow around Upstate. Best analog i can see is 2002-2003. Still mighty early though. Lets wait till late August/early September and we'll have a better feeling about this upcoming winter. Agree, but having another winter like the craptastic one that we had last year would be very hard to pull off. I also like 2006-07 as a winter analogue as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 Agree, but having another winter like the craptastic one that we had last year would be very hard to pull off. I also like 2006-07 as a winter analogue as well. 06-07 was a very eventful year in lake effect snow events. We had the historic October storm in October 2006 and the epic 140" plus 2 week event in Feb of 07 east of lake Ontario. Not sure if thats the best Analog year though, even though id like to see a repeat of both of those events. The 1940s had a **** streak from 1946 through 1949 averaging just 49.2 for those three years. And in 47 and 48 there was only an average of 41 inches a season. So i hope we dont get another **** winter like this past winter was. This past winter brought the lowest snow in BUF (36.7") since the observations began being recorded at the airport in Cheektowaga in 1940. Lets hope we don't get another **** winter this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 06-07 was a very eventful year in lake effect snow events. We had the historic October storm in October 2006 and the epic 140" plus 2 week event in Feb of 07 east of lake Ontario. Not sure if thats the best Analog year though, even though id like to see a repeat of both of those events. The 1940s had a **** streak from 1946 through 1949 averaging just 49.2 for those three years. And in 47 and 48 there was only an average of 41 inches a season. So i hope we dont get another **** winter like this past winter was. This past winter brought the lowest snow in BUF (36.7") since the observations began being recorded at the airport in Cheektowaga in 1940. Lets hope we don't get another **** winter this year. yea, last winter had some of the worst skiing conditions that I ever saw in the Catskills, and the most snow that I saw on the ground was around 4" tops and that was around December 7th(I think). But at least you guys had snow last winter, where I am on Long Island, we only measured little over 6" for the entire winter, so your 36" was not all that bad But we were expecting a **** winter after the three epic ones that we had prior (2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11) I am glad that for most of next winter I will be up in Oswego, where I m almost guaranteed a minimum of 50" of snow per year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 9, 2012 Share Posted July 9, 2012 yea, last winter had some of the worst skiing conditions that I ever saw in the Catskills, and the most snow that I saw on the ground was around 4" tops and that was around December 7th(I think). But at least you guys had snow last winter, where I am on Long Island, we only measured little over 6" for the entire winter, so your 36" was not all that bad But we were expecting a **** winter after the three epic ones that we had prior (2008-09, 2009-10, and 2010-11) I am glad that for most of next winter I will be up in Oswego, where I m almost guaranteed a minimum of 50" of snow per year. 36" sounds like alot compared to 6" but our average is 94" a year. Where I am in Orchard Park my average is about 110" a year so I'm hoping that ill see at least average this year but even average will seem like a snowpocalypse season after 36"... Why you gonna bein Oswego? SUNY Oswego? Youll be lucky there. You should see at least 100"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Anyone with a BUF observation on these forums notice the observation below our names hasnt updated in weeks? Says 83 degrres with a west wind at 13 mph and sunny skies for the past 2 weeks at least. Anyone know why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 36" sounds like alot compared to 6" but our average is 94" a year. Where I am in Orchard Park my average is about 110" a year so I'm hoping that ill see at least average this year but even average will seem like a snowpocalypse season after 36"... Why you gonna bein Oswego? SUNY Oswego? Youll be lucky there. You should see at least 100"+ Yup, i am going to SUNY Oswego, and I thnk their average yearly snowfall is around 150" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Yup, i am going to SUNY Oswego, and I thnk their average yearly snowfall is around 150" Ya id say between 130" and 150".http://www.google.com/search?q=buffalo+average+snow&oe=UTF-8&hl=en&client=safari&um=1&ie=UTF-8&tbm=isch&source=og&sa=N&tab=wi&ei=unj7T_PJIqaF6QGX98y4Bg&biw=1024&bih=672&sei=vHj7T5-4Jab56wGx8cnmBg#biv=i|10;d|nGKQnYHZV-fbwM: You goin for meteorology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Ya id say between 130" and 150". http://www.google.co...nGKQnYHZV-fbwM: You goin for meteorology? Yup, i am going for metrology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Yup, i am going for metrology. Haha you gotta learn to spell it right before you take the course! Lol jk. Thats cool. You ever been in a lake effect snow band before? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Haha you gotta learn to spell it right before you take the course! Lol jk. Thats cool. You ever been in a lake effect snow band before? I'm on my phone at work right now. Yes, i have, my sister lives up in North Syracuse and when i visit her in the winter, we usually see quite a bit of snow, LES is very fluffy and dry. Thundersnow is also awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I'm on my phone at work right now. Yes, i have, my sister lives up in North Syracuse and when i visit her in the winter, we usually see quite a bit of snow, LES is very fluffy and dry. Thundersnow is also awesome. Lol! Thats cool. LES isnt always dry and fluffy trust me. You gotta experience those 4"+ an hour rates with no wind at all with tons of thunder and lightning. Those are the best moments in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover76 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Lol! Thats cool. LES isnt always dry and fluffy trust me. You gotta experience those 4"+ an hour rates with no wind at all with tons of thunder and lightning. Those are the best moments in life. I have only witnessed thundersnow 4 times in my life, twice was back where I live during winter 2010-11, and the other two times was in upstate NY(I forgot where I saw it, but I do remember that it was in upstate NY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 I have only witnessed thundersnow 4 times in my life, twice was back where I live during winter 2010-11, and the other two times was in upstate NY(I forgot where I saw it, but I do remember that it was in upstate NY) Yes thundersnow is awesome. Ive seen it a countless number of times, but theres NOTHING that beats a early season and stationary lake effect band right over you dropping incredible amounts of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Im dying for some sort of action sheesh. No thunderstorms, wind events, no snow this past winter, not even rain here the past few months. Hell ill settle for a brushfire somewhere round here right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 a warm summer/warm lake erie has absolutely nothing to do with how much snow the next winter will bring. Also, I'd say SUNY Oswego averages about 120"...I went to school there. You can get screwed because it can rain/wet snow on the shore and snow inland during early season events, sometimes the band coalesces better past the shoreline since Lake Ontario has a much shorter fetch than lake erie. We did have 2 rock star years when I was there, 2003-2004 and 2006-2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The wind can be so strong on the shoreline you will get legit blizzard conditions and the snow will legitimately fall..but it will literally blow into town and actually leave less snow on the ground right on campus. It February 2007, as much snow as we head, it looked like the city of Oswego had a couple more feet on the ground due to this phenomena. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 45.9 beautiful degrees this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Considering Lake Ontario was 75 yesterday, you think its upwelling? http://www.wbuf.noaa.gov/laketemps/laketemps.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 45.9 beautiful degrees this morning. Damn! Thought 51 here was nice. Got a couple quick showers to get the dust out of the rain bucket. Maybe 0.01 if I'm lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 Damn! Thought 51 here was nice. Got a couple quick showers to get the dust out of the rain bucket. Maybe 0.01 if I'm lucky. I'll trade you a couple of degrees for some rain. Getting tired of watering my garden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted July 10, 2012 Share Posted July 10, 2012 The brown grass is expanding daily. We've had .05 for the month. For the meteorological summer around 3.00" Look at all the goose eggs here lol http://www.cnyweather.com/wxraindetail.php?r=wxraindetail.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 Considering Lake Ontario was 75 yesterday, you think its upwelling? http://www.wbuf.noaa...s/laketemps.php Happens a lot on Lake Ontario in the summer, especially with a south wind since the temp is taken off of Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Drought continues: It's now been 30 days since we had more than sprinkles/very light showers. At the upside, we might have had .2" total in the last month. Lawns all burnt off, even bush leaves turning brown and crumpling in some cases. At least the lawn mower is getting a rest. Low last night of 54 and 51 yesterday. Happens a lot on Lake Ontario in the summer, especially with a south wind since the temp is taken off of Rochester. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 11, 2012 Author Share Posted July 11, 2012 Met summer total is deceptive though because it was mainly during that first 1/3rd of June. We also had a few rain events in there. But then it shut off totally here and with our clay soil it looks completely dried out. Streams are dry, etc. Water table down deep might not be so bad given earlier rains, but physical appearance is very dry. The brown grass is expanding daily. We've had .05 for the month. For the meteorological summer around 3.00" Look at all the goose eggs here lol http://www.cnyweathe...xraindetail.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 11, 2012 Share Posted July 11, 2012 in the past 30 days only 0.87″ of rain have fallen. over half that (0.48) fell in a gully washer on June 24th… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Drought continues: It's now been 30 days since we had more than sprinkles/very light showers. At the upside, we might have had .2" total in the last month. Lawns all burnt off, even bush leaves turning brown and crumpling in some cases. At least the lawn mower is getting a rest. Low last night of 54 and 51 yesterday. Yesterdays low was 49.8° and todays was 62.2°. Much more unpleasent this morning although no real heat in the forcast. NWS has 86 today and then ranging from 81-84 for the rest of the period. Might get some rain this weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Saturday afternoon/overnight looks to be our best chances of showers and storms. Hopefully they are organized enough to help out the dry conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 Saturday afternoon/overnight looks to be our best chances of showers and storms. Hopefully they are organized enough to help out the dry conditions. Looks like the highest chance is over the hills to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 12, 2012 Share Posted July 12, 2012 BUF up to at least 90 again today. 3rd time this year were up to 90 or above. 91 here in OP. http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KBUF.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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