OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 from what ive been hesring a weak to mod nino is expected by winter time.If we did see a weak nino and saw above average snow, it would seem like the snowiest year in decades since last winter was so ****ty. Id be happy with 100" . Id be thrilled if I got anything over 120" there's a weakening correlation with ENSO state near the lakes since our winter snowfall is driven by mesoscale les events. But, some of our best winters are definitely weak ninos...76-77 and 77-78 both were. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/research/climate/elnino_month.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 http://www.erh.noaa.gov/buf/research/climate/elnino_month.htm Seems like BUFs temps arnt affected as greatly as ART by nino. Also is there any precip/snow correlation charts like the temp chart for nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Seems like BUFs temps arnt affected as greatly as ART by nino. Also is there any precip/snow correlation charts like the temp chart for nino? Yeah, that makes sense...Nino affects areas farther east towards New England than around here. Strong Nino is horrible for just about everyone. No, but I probably could make one in the coming days. I don't think the correlation will be all that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Seems like BUFs temps arnt affected as greatly as ART by nino. Also is there any precip/snow correlation charts like the temp chart for nino? Yeah, that makes sense...Nino affects areas farther east towards New England than around here. Strong Nino is horrible for just about everyone. No, but I probably could make one in the coming days. I don't think the correlation will be all that high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 For the seven weak Nino events since 1950, BUF has averaged 124". If you throw out the high and low totals (83.0" in 1951-1952 and 199.4" in 1976-1977), you still get 118". Small data set, unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 For the seven weak Nino events since 1950, BUF has averaged 124". If you throw out the high and low totals (83.0" in 1951-1952 and 199.4" in 1976-1977), you still get 118". Small data set, unfortunately. And thats for BUF, here in OP I average more than BUF but I'd be more than happy with BUFs 118-124". After last winter I can't even picture what a winter over 100" would be like lol. Landed up with a measly 36" last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 BTW OSUmetstud do you have a list of all the years that BUF has had Nino or Nina and what their snowfall for the years were? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 A time lapse video i took the other day. More just a test for what i want to do come winter time but pretty cool anyways. Nice. What you using for a webcam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nice. What you using for a webcam? It's my Ipad2 with a time lapse app I purchased in the App store for 99 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName=Orchard+Park&state=NY&site=BUF&lat=42.7634&lon=-78.7458 NWS now fully updated for their point and click forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 almost surely overdone...but the NAM pulls off a miracle 100 degrees at BUF on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 almost surely overdone...but the NAM pulls off a miracle 100 degrees at BUF on Friday. its on crack lmfao. thunder to my north no rain though. very windy (20-30mph). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 its on crack lmfao. thunder to my north no rain though. very windy (20-30mph). yep. I do think there is potential for 100 degrees away from the lake on friday...Niagara Escarpment and the Genesee Valley. Euro and NAM have 850 temps of 24C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 12z euro continues the torch theme for Friday. upper 90s to low 100s from the Niagara Peninsula to Niagara Falls to out just past ROC. Low to mid 90s for everyone not within a few miles of the lake. Friday evening/overnight could get pretty interesting if we can manage to break the cap. Should lots of instability available as a cold front and a shortwave drop out of the northwest from Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 12z euro continues the torch theme for Friday. upper 90s to low 100s from the Niagara Peninsula to Niagara Falls to out just past ROC. Low to mid 90s for everyone not within a few miles of the lake. Friday evening/overnight could get pretty interesting if we can manage to break the cap. Should lots of instability available as a cold front and a shortwave drop out of the northwest from Canada. That's some incredible heat. I really do wish KBUF breaks 100 once in my lifetime just to say we hit 100. haha! If it wasn't for the proximity to Lake Erie we would of hit it many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 if were gonna be that hot I sure hope that we hit 100 at KBUF just so we can say it hit 100 here. wont happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 Last night's meager attempt at an MCS was a bust here as we had a few bouts of drizzle/very light showers. No sign it even rained now as my parched clay soil is cracked etc. all over. Moderately humid today and looking at mid/upper 80's later. 58 days until Met. Autumn! if were gonna be that hot I sure hope that we hit 100 at KBUF just so we can say it hit 100 here. wont happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 a measly. 09 in my rain gauge from yesterdays rain. pretty much nothing. soils stillparched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNYWeather Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just a trace here. High of 89° today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 High of 91 here. Nothing in the rain gauge. 81 currently with a dew of 71. Yuckkk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Thank goodness for that cap tonight or it would prob be a very stormy night as i got a dew of 72 here and capes reached 3000 j/kg according to the NWS, seems like quite a recipe for storms but i guess that cap really kept the lid on the storms tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 NAM MOS printing out 95 for BUF for Friday. GFS MOS is 92. For The warm spot DSV, NAM MOS has 99 for while GFS MOS has 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Thank goodness for that cap tonight or it would prob be a very stormy night as i got a dew of 72 here and capes reached 3000 j/kg according to the NWS, seems like quite a recipe for storms but i guess that cap really kept the lid on the storms tonight. 3500 MLCAPE on the 00z BUF sounding. Extremely rare for these parts. No lift, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 3500 MLCAPE on the 00z BUF sounding. Extremely rare for these parts. No lift, though. Cold front moved through too quickly. We wouldda had some biggggg thunder boomers if we coulda gotten a trigger for those storms. Oh well. Lake effect rain seasons only 2 weeks away ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Cold front moved through too quickly. We wouldda had some biggggg thunder boomers if we coulda gotten a trigger for those storms. Oh well. Lake effect rain seasons only 2 weeks away ) nah the real problem was we were left in the subsidence regime behind a departing shortwave over New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 nah the real problem was we were left in the subsidence regime behind a departing shortwave over New England. Oh well. Whenever the fourth is past i consider summer to be about halfway over ) cant wait till met autumn, only 57 days away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Kind of an interesting trend...both the nam and the gfs want to maintain 280 surface flow at BUF on Friday. The Euro, and NAM MOS still have lake breezes but it is weak, only about 10 kt. Looks like we won't be able to pop on Friday evening...crazy dry air advecting in the low-levels from the WNW. However, the front may hang up a bit on Saturday, setting the stage for severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 NWS BUF AFD... ill take it SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE ON THE COOL SIDE...BUT COMFORTABLE AS STARLIT SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP OFF INTO THE 50S FOR THE MAJORITY OF THE REGION. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT WILL BE THE SOMEWHAT CHILLY H85 TEMPS OF 10C. THESE WOULD BE POTENTIALLY LOW ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR A WEAK LAKE RESPONSE...IE. SOME LK GENERATED CLOUD COVER. IF THIS CAME TO FRUITION...THE FAVORED AREAS FOR SOME LAKE CLOUDS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WOULD BE FROM ABOUT ROCHESTER TO THE INTERIOR FINGER LAKES REGION. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 BUF bumped up the high today...I thought 82/83 was way too low given the absence of the lake breeze and 850s still running 18c. We still could break the 90 mark today. Tomorrow is almost a given. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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