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It Really Was a Heat Wave II (unless it wasn't, in which case it was weak sauce)- - Obs and Disco Late June/Early July 2012

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Saw a few puffy cumulus in a line around 815 tonite. . Near bos or so. .looks like it co-incided w frontal feature on bos radar headin se. Just was suprisd to see any clouds lol

Yep, saw the same feature zipping E on Route 9 around 6:30pm - interesting line of CIN capped cu, and I figured it was the dry-line/front. It's more front, but mostly expressed in the DPs. Radiational cooling will be more effective in dry air, but the advection of kinetic temperature was about 0 for high summer sun.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I have no idea why the BOX point and click for BOS is 101F...when BDL is 96F.

I figure it's superb diurnal heating on a perfect wind direction, while under 19C in the critical mixing depth. Not sure that will verify that way, but I can understand the reasoning.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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sw winds?

No. I cannot think of scenario where that makes sense except where BDL gets hit by thunderstorms at like 12-1pm and they hold off at BOS until like 5pm...and that isn't what is being progged for tomorrow. It makes no sense and nothing supports a BOS 101F tomorrow. To be honest, its going to be hard to get 95F at BOS tomorrow with 850 temps +16-17.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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No. I cannot think of scenario where that makes sense except where BDL gets hit by thunderstorms at like 12-1pm and they hold off at BOS until like 5pm...and that isn't what is being progged for tomorrow. It makes no sense and nothing supports a BOS 101F tomorrow. To be honest, its going to be hard to get 95F at BOS tomorrow with 850 temps +16-17.

I see

BOS 91

PVD 88

BDL 96

ORH 89

BDR 96

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Welcome. One of the first things you may want to do here at AmWx is find the "ignore" button and put "CT_Blizz", LitchfieldLibations, CoastalWx and SkiMRG on it. That will filter out about 95% of posts.

Just kidding, everyone here is great and you'll have a great time. See ya around.

Ah hahahahaha

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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I figure it's superb diurnal heating on a perfect wind direction, while under 19C in the critical mixing depth. Not sure that will verify that way, but I can understand the reasoning.

Even 19C at 850 would never produce 101 at BOS...or at least hasn't in the past. But we start cooler than that. It maybe hits 19C at 850 by 00z, but you normally prog the day's high temp based off the 12z-18z 850 temps.

If I was looking to set the BOS all time record June temperature, I think I'd be looking for at least 21-22C at 850 and that isn't happening.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Even 19C at 850 would never produce 101 at BOS...or at least hasn't in the past. But we start cooler than that. It maybe hits 19C at 850 by 00z, but you normally prog the day's high temp based off the 12z-18z 850 temps.

If I was looking to set the BOS all time record June temperature, I think I'd be looking for at least 21-22C at 850 and that isn't happening.

19C would do it though. I saw 99 there once at 18C on a wnw wind in pure blue sky back in the day. The key is the mixing depth. If it gets above that level..eh

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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actually, forget it. There's no way it gets to 101 at Logan tomorrow, unless the modeled data is hiding something.

You are right that there will be some crazy lapse rates in the low levels tomorrow. That's why I think it even has a shot to hit 90F at ORH, but I'm still skeptical of the forecasted 92-93F at 1,000 feet on the point and click.

I mean we will definitely produce some impressive temps considering the ML temps not being up to usual par...but they do create a limiting barrier.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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if the high temp is prolly around 4pm and 0z temps are 18.5-19c at boston and 17C i'sh at 18z ....seems like 18c 850's would be what to forecast off (given assumption gfs is accurate) do you use earlier 850 temps to forecast highs bc the heating has a lag time?

my guess for highs tomo

would be KFIT 97

KBOS 97

KORH 91

KBED 97

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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19C would do it though. I saw 99 there once at 18C on a wnw wind in pure blue sky back in the day. The key is the mixing depth. If it gets above that level..eh

Have you ever seen BOS hit 101 on 850 temps below 20C?

Its one thing to eek out a 98F at 17-18C...but those last few degrees are always the most impossible to achieve. Again, I say there is a reason the last time BOS hit 100F in June was 1952, and I don't think it was because they had 850 temps below 20C.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Have you ever seen BOS hit 101 on 850 temps below 20C?

Its one thing to eek out a 98F at 17-18C...but those last few degrees are always the most impossible to achieve. Again, I say there is a reason the last time BOS hit 100F in June was 1952, and I don't think it was because they had 850 temps below 20C.

No...but, if the sounding has a weird quasi-mixed layer above that, and the mixing level gets there, it can happen. Also, BOS not ticking 100 this month already really was nuance at Logan wind direction in the lower levels - which, nuances preventing may be June's headache.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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No...but, if the sounding has a weird quasi-mixed layer above that, and the mixing level gets there, it can happen. Also, BOS not ticking 100 this month already really was nuance at Logan wind direction in the lower levels - which, nuances preventing may be June's headache.

But they have like 96-97F at surrounding suburbs like BED/OWD in the point and click. So if they were anticipating the 100F anomaly at BOS, you'd think you would see it in surrounding areas but we don't...the BDL thing is a red flag too. Maybe it was just an error. But once you get into that BOS core from Newton eastward, its 99F+.

I don't see this being very close at all to that. But I could be wrong. I was a bit surprised by the last wave...alas that had 850 temps a bit warmer though and my surprise was more from 3-4 days out, and not the night before.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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The other question is ... how are the "point and click" numbers populated? The current number seems like an old value - perhaps.

I just don't see it. I bet it's 94 there...maybe 95, but the wind absolutely has to be off-shore, with no south coastal contamination.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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But they have like 96-97F at surrounding suburbs like BED/OWD in the point and click. So if they were anticipating the 100F anomaly at BOS, you'd think you would see it in surrounding areas but we don't...the BDL thing is a red flag too. Maybe it was just an error. But once you get into that BOS core from Newton eastward, its 99F+.

I don't see this being very close at all to that. But I could be wrong. I was a bit surprised by the last wave...alas that had 850 temps a bit warmer though and my surprise was more from 3-4 days out, and not the night before.

Yeah, I think that's an error - I just intimated as much, too.

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