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It Really Was a Heat Wave II (unless it wasn't, in which case it was weak sauce)- - Obs and Disco Late June/Early July 2012

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Yeah they were def going to be the warmest regardless...but what a big bust in E MA/RI. A lot of SE MA/RI is sea breezing from the south now...so their highs will make forecasts look abysmal.

It almost looked like those rain showers/storms left a bit of a meso boundary behind in eastern areas that never allowed for good mixing...and helped turn the winds more onshore. The late start for insolation didn't help either.

I rolled over at around 8:30am to the sound of thunder and thought, nope - not gonna happin'

Some days do recover when that happened, but I just had an eerie feeling that today was going to find a way to bust those highs no matter what. Sometimes the weather is just creepy like that - aha. annnnyway...

I have been watching the Euro's D7 through D10 behavior, ...since the end of January really, and keep observing the same stupid bias in this model. It seems to pick up on signals in the late middle range, then summarily loses them by D7, and like auto defaults to some exotically amped up +PNA configuration. I don't think that D10 chart has a prayer at verifying and that goes beyond the cliche of D10. If you step back and look at that overall evolution between D6 and 10, it seems to just spontaneously end that way without any real physical reason for getting there. Wonder why this model does this.

Its going to suck come winter, when it seems always have a blizzard on D8 that doesn't have a chance.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Big Td drop up here the last couple hours... I'm not sure if some sort of front moved through or what but we are now getting WNW winds and a lot drier air.

BTV's dewpoint went from 69F to 55F within an hour.

Here in Stowe we went from 66F to 56F for a Td.... a very noticable drop as far as apparent temperature out there.

It is still hot out though at 85F here currently, down from a high of 89F... but dews in the mid 50s are much better than mid to upper 60s.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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That's the sfc trough moving through...there is a pretty good dew drop behind it. It weas supposed to be further east this afternoon...but I think that stuff this morning may have helped it get hung up west of us. Not sure...but either way that's what it is.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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What makes using the NAM a bit frustrating is that it could be entirely correct for Saturday. We probably are not going drop all that far for mins tonight, and there will likely not be any morning convection to rob those 3 hours of sun up insolation. Plus, there is a dry line sort of cool boundary zipping through eastern NY... DP at ALB dropped into the mid 50s while maintaining a 92 reading - it's not "cold" air behind that boundary by any stretch. Tomorrow looks to have superb insolation potential right out of the gates, and setting into an already warm environment. Could see the boundary layer being taller on a dry west wind, scorching sun sort of day. Them MOS numbers could easily result if that plays out like that.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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That's the sfc trough moving through...there is a pretty good dew drop behind it. It weas supposed to be further east this afternoon...but I think that stuff this morning may have helped it get hung up west of us. Not sure...but either way that's what it is.

Thanks, Will. I didn't hear any mention of a front or anything, and there was no clouds or precip, but its definitely a noticable drop in dews and hopefully will allow us to decouple well into the 50s tonight. It was also interesting because it didn't do anything to the temperatures, just dews.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Guidance still looks cool tonight for some areas..like BDL. This is interesting, despite dews dropping..I would not have gone 62 or so. It's not like we have a high overhead and the airmass is still pretty warm. That would mean temps would not be far off from the airmass we had a few days ago? Seems fishy, but all guidance has it so maybe it is correct. If it is, BDL is below for the month I think.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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91 at FIT. Westfield is 95. Orange is in the 90's. Most area west of an ORH BED line are 90-95... I think we are being a bit hard on the MOS.

The fact that we had some insolation robbing this morning is always a wild card in the summer, when you have 105 in DCA and 80 in BTV, with a 100 kt 500mb geopotential flow blasting west to east in between. The absence of that rather non-predictable feature would have realized the heat locally without a doubt when considering how efficiently these western/central sites are rebounded. That shows what the environment is/was really capable of. That said, these interior sites will likely have verified a heat wave by sundown on Sunday.

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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91 at FIT. Westfield is 95. Orange is in the 90's. Most area west of an ORH BED line are 90-95... I think we are being a bit hard on the MOS.

The fact that we had some insolation robbing this morning is always a wild card in the summer, when you have 105 in DCA and 80 in BTV, with a 100 kt 500mb geopotential flow blasting west to east in between. The absence of that rather non-predictable feature would have realized the heat locally without a doubt when considering how efficiently these western/central sites are rebounded. That shows what the environment is/was really capable of. That said, these interior sites will likely have verified a heat wave by sundown on Sunday.

Yeah, we could have probably tacked on 3-5 degrees without that morning stuff.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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On a side note, it's good having Ryan, Phil, Will, Tip et al helping to clean up threads with facts. Sometimes I feel like William Wallace trying to fight the Brits by myself.

Its amazing how civilized and informative with actual weather discussion these threads can be when a certain few posters stay away for an hour or two ;)

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HoarfrostHubb

HoarfrostHubb

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LOL, there isn't a horn to toot. It's good when other respected mets have the same thoughts.

Just bustin'

Remember, there is an "ignore" feature...lol

Dendrite was helpful last night explaining how to translate modelled temps at 850 (or so) to what could be expected near sea level.

I always appreciate the educational value that comes out of this

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