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It Really Was a Heat Wave II (unless it wasn't, in which case it was weak sauce)- - Obs and Disco Late June/Early July 2012

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

Nah, not meant in fun, you pick everything apart I post and jump on everything, and thats fine, I dont know you from Adam, internet personalities are just that, so its all lol. Perhaps, we can meet in person one day, and the online experience might be a little more smooth, in any case have an awesome day!

3 COTTON t's today just for blizzie! Wish it had not rained, this late start will be brutal.

Have the best day you have ever had, and enjoy the fire!

so dramatic

:sun: :sun: :sun:

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Don S notes heat is likely to be worst 1st half of July.....Cool August likely if you go by El-nino analogs....NYC forum notes Euro hot after the 4th too. If we get big heat 1st half of July, will be hard to wipe out the positive anomolies unless we get something like Monday's cutoff a few times...

I really wish someone with the time and wherewithal would science the following, but it seems to me from a purely theoretical Meteorology basis, any onset warm or cool phase of the ENSE that takes place during the ides of summer would not register in the atmosphere as readily as during mid winter.

The reason for that - in my thinking - is because the ambient gradients (thermodynamic) are so weak in the atmosphere. I've said this a 100 times, gradient is everything - and that is not me talking at that point, that's physics. Without it, there is no weather, no weather = no climate. It's just that simple. The logical conclusion of that when then applied to the field is that if the gradient is weak, that would make any correlation from a new ENSO state during weak gradient more dubious.

The other problem I have with these analog methods are the sample sizes; they are never really large enough to generate an impressive chi when using century time spans, or more. I can flip a coin 20 times and be unlucky, and hit tails 20 times - rare, but not impossible. And, still manage to pull off an even number of heads and tails if I went on to flip that same coin the other 75 times out of a 100. Not only that, you'd have to really break every single warm or cool ENSO event out into quadrature, and study how each component correlated to the larger domain in order to derive a clearer understanding of the system when it is integrated into the whole.

By the way, the D9 operational Euro is a triple digit day, and D8 was not picnic either. That's quite the ridge expansion in the extended there.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
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BDL probably finishes below average too...they'll need to somehow have a min temp way higher than NWS forecast tonight to fnish above avg on the month.

I just looked at their forecast. That seems a little low doesn't it? Low 60s?

I guess maybe if they radiate.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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that is some abrupt clearing on the backside of this MCS.

Yeah, I was taking note of that on satellite visible imagery at just about the same time the back edge came through here in Westborough. Went from murkiness to brilliant sear like a light switch. Too bad we're CINed up the wazoo because the air feels like 50,000 foot tropopause punching glory out there.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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i'm not positive but i thought they both had 63 or 64 for last night? low ended up like 70F.

Yeah I didn't look...I wouldn't forecast 61 tonight either...probably more like 64-65F. But then again, we'll have to see how warm it gets today too...we are having a late start.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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MET has 100F today for BDL...is that thing serious?

Yeah...things can change in a hurry though. The area is flirting with a ginormous positive anomaly airmass and a fraction of it is passing overhead on the back edge of this MCS, which was really warm frontal driven.

I remember June 1988 (1987?) one day when we had 64/62 rains with a warned cell or two through 2pm. It abruptly cleared and the temp/dew soared to 88/72 by 5 in just that 3 hours. We'll have to see how the thermometer houses respond over the next 2 hours.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Seriously, how do you live in the MA?

I lived there as a kid-lots of time in the pool...no such thing as cold water. Springs were nice-started 3/1 and never looked back--winters were tough for snow lovers. The area has alot to offer just as New England does, but different ways....alot of the neighborhood were built in more recent times allowing for neighborhood pools bike paths and playgrounds--you don't see that much around here since every thing was built up in the 60's and that stuff didnt really exist back then.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
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Yeah...things can change in a hurry though. The area is flirting with a ginormous positive anomaly airmass and a fraction of it is passing overhead on the back edge of this MCS, which was really warm frontal driven.

I remember June 1988 (1987?) one day when we had 64/62 rains with a warned cell or two through 2pm. It abruptly cleared and the temp/dew soared to 88/72 by 5 in just that 3 hours. We'll have to see how the thermometer houses respond over the next 2 hours.

Oh yeah...it will definitely rise quickly with the clearing now. But there is a big difference rebounding to 94F vs 100F.

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