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It Really Was a Heat Wave II (unless it wasn't, in which case it was weak sauce)- - Obs and Disco Late June/Early July 2012

HoarfrostHubb

By HoarfrostHubb,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

MET went from 100 to 90 at BOS.

still 101 at BDL though with MAV only 90F.

I'm pretty sure it's the wind direction. 200 degrees ain't going to cut it for bringing the big 3 0's to BOS latitude because of the indirect taint off the L. I. Sound.

Need more westerly component for that. It's our own little local study nightmare to deal with. Notice FIT well west of the stream line interface is 98F

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
Posted

I'm pretty sure it's the wind direction. 200 degrees ain't going to cut it for bringing the big 3 0's to BOS latitude because of the indirect taint off the L. I. Sound.

Need more westerly component for that. It's our own little local study nightmare to deal with. Notice FIT well west of the stream line interface is 98F

yeah that's possible. i didn't look at the wind direction forecast on the 00z run.

either way...too high i think.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Well, I'll tell you , overall this is a extended positive anomaly episode for North America, South of the 50th parallel. The only question is, how will these continental book-ender troughs allow or disallow those positive anomalies to effect those areas.

The majority of the operational guidance I have seen appear to average out to negative anomalies returning to the D. Straight/Greenland area as the middle range ages onward toward the extended. It's interesting though, that heights are prevented from rising in New England despite that hemispheric behavior in the models. The means have been warmer from both the Euro and GFS cluster, so given to that weight, combined with suspicious handling of NE heights relative to, there may be some suggestion there to correct warmer with the heights for our local area. Not a certainty, no. But, having even weakly negative height returning to those lat/lon doesn't really agree with seasonal wave length arguments in keeping NE Conus height orientation so deeply NW. We'll see.

In the meantime, at least one scorcher day tomorrow, and we'll see if this introduction of S. Coast marine intrusion really does keep SE zones cooler. ...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

yeah that's possible. i didn't look at the wind direction forecast on the 00z run.

either way...too high i think.

Seems high doesn't it. But the NAM is also progging a 20C plume passing over - hard to say. KFIT is banging a 98 in the NAM MOS, which is to the NW of the current depicted stream line convergence between the strictly continental airmass, and that over SE Mass. BOS happens to be on that boundary on this run

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weathafella

weathafella

Posted
Posted

Bob better change the title, not seeing 3 days in a row of above 90. Garth nope we in our hood did not top 90 3 days in a row, funnier yet is Kev did not either .you are right.

BOS likely will have Friday through Sunday and then up to a week until it happens again. The tenuous day is tomorrow which requires the convection to leave in time for heating. But after the action ends we're in the hot sector. Of interest (to me) is I'm heading to Princeton tomorrow....should be near 100 there.

But in truth, the last heatwave overperformed in that we got 3 days at many locations. So given the intensity of the ridge even if not directly over us, a 3 day HW is probalby imho. As Harvey Leonard said last night regarding the heat, "a piece will come over us..". Kind of like when the cold high is in Canada and yet the USA is warm but we get glancing but sometimes intense cold shots.

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

Posted
Posted

Bob better change the title, not seeing 3 days in a row of above 90. Garth nope we in our hood did not top 90 3 days in a row, funnier yet is Kev did not either .you are right.

Some places may hit 90F F/S/S. And last I checked, 90F is about 10F above normal for this time of year for many. I'd say that the trough/cooldown is over and we are back to N/AN temps starting today.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
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Not sure if Ginx is drunk or not. But to make that post about no 3 days at 90 or higher seems like a highly intoxicated one

Garth and I both only hit 89 the last day. do you have your station data log, would love to see the trace. I see SW winds cutting into the 3 day 90 from ORH East. I also said today would not be 90 like you and Grandpa claimed yesterday from ORH east low 80, upper 70s right now. Of course your summer cottage on the Tarmac at BDL will have a heat wave, no doubt.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

UPDATED MORNING PRELIMS SIMPLIFY THE ABOVE SOLUTION USING GFS

ENSEMBLE MEANS THROUGH DAY 5 TUES THEN A MIXTURE OF GFS AND ECMWF

MEANS USED DAYS 6 AND 7 WED/THURS. THIS RESULTS IN ONLY MINOR

FRONTAL CHANGES FROM OVERNIGHT PROGS. CONCERNING THE FORECAST HEAT

IN THE SHORT RANGE AND EARLY PORTIONS OF THE MEDIUM RANGE AS IT

ADVECTS EASTWARD...PERSISTENT AND CONSISTENT MODEL FORECASTS OF

H850 TEMPERATURES IN EXCESS OF 24C EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS ARE

RARELY IF EVER SEEN OR FORECAST BY MODELS AND COVER FAIRLY BROAD

AREAS. THIS ALONG WITH VERY DRY CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN

WIDESPREAD DAILY AND POSSIBLY SOME ALL TIME TEMPERATURE RECORDS

OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN CONUS.

They are not talking New England, but interesting sentiment nonetheless.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

Garth and I both only hit 89 the last day. do you have your station data log, would love to see the trace. I see SW winds cutting into the 3 day 90 from ORH East. I also said today would not be 90 like you and Grandpa claimed yesterday from ORH east low 80, upper 70s right now.Of course your summer cottage on the Tarmac at BDL will have a heat wave, no doubt.

lol, That is true

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