vortex95 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Preliminary tornado count for the U.S. May-June combined this year is 247 and given the typical reduction in this number due to duplicate reports, the actual count is very likely lower. No significant/widespread tornado outbreaks appear likely for the last few days of the this month. I'll stick to the past 30 years or so for statistics, given the greater uncertainty of tornado counts as you go further back. The lowest May-June total (actual count) is 195 set in 1988. The thing to remember though is that this was before the Nexrad days, well before storm chasing went mainstream, and cameras were not nearly as common, esp. personal video cameras. Tornado counts from the past are certainly too low, and the further you go back, the more that we probably missed. We are still too low even today, but much closer I think to what actually occurs simply due to better awareness, detection, and documentation. So it is likely that 195 count in 1988 is low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Very Interesting Vortex, 1988, Ah the drought analog comes up again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Here's something I wrote for April-July on the same topic. http://www.ustornado...-seasonal-peak/ The numbers for this yr are still estimates but it appears the May-July period in particular will be the quietest on record when you inflation adjust older years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Ian thanks for the graph. This drought is doing a number on tornadoes this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Check out the 850 mb vector wind anomalies for May 1 - Jul 30. Anomalous northeasterly flow over the entire northern Gulf essentially shut down LL moisture transport. Helps to explain the drought as well as the tornado drought. You also don't get a characteristic high helicity / veering hodograph without a southerly wind component at 850. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Couldn't an argument be made that due to the lack of storms tracking over tornado alley has resulted in both the drought and record low tornadoes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 JB has been beating a drum on low tornado counts for quite some time now. Did he actually get one correct this time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 This is not surprising considering the weak overall weather pattern and the general lack of moisture and cooler air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 Couldn't an argument be made that due to the lack of storms tracking over tornado alley has resulted in both the drought and record low tornadoes? that's kind of a chicken/egg argument it seems. the jet retreated north really early this yr which helped ridging build in and the drought to increase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 1, 2012 Share Posted August 1, 2012 that's kind of a chicken/egg argument it seems. the jet retreated north really early this yr which helped ridging build in and the drought to increase. True, now that I look at it more I suppose my statement was premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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