stormspotterlive Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well it is rather early but what the heck it is time to start thinking about the July 4th forecast and it is already looking like the 90s will continue through the holiday from the mountains to the city to the shore. The latest 00z GFS is showing isolated storms with a system moving in late in the day right around the time any fireworks would be going off. The euro is a bit different and has afternoon pop up storms For now I think we will get to 90 in most places with the wildcard being the Poconos. I also think for most of the day with the storm threat being well late in the night. Will see how this holds up and changes in time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Well it is rather early but what the heck it is time to start thinking about the July 4th forecast and it is already looking like the 90s will continue through the holiday from the mountains to the city to the shore. The latest 00z GFS is showing isolated storms with a system moving in late in the day right around the time any fireworks would be going off. The euro is a bit different and has afternoon pop up storms For now I think we will get to 90 in most places with the wildcard being the Poconos. I also think for most of the day with the storm threat being well late in the night. Will see how this holds up and changes in time I agree that philly which is usually the warmest spot will have no trouble hitting 90 or a bit better, but the cooler burbs weat of the city with elevation may not get out of the 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 If the 00z GFS is correct looks like we start off the early 4Th of july am before sunrise with a complex of storms that could be strong to maybe severe. Then it has storms anytime anywhere throughout the rest of the day on 4th of july. Lets hope it is wrong we do need the rain but it would be nice not to have it on a holiday. On a side note not sure if anyone remembers but about 3-5 years ago we had a few years in a row with real nasty storms on 4th of July. First year of the series featured very heavy rain fall and severe storms. The second year had severe storms that delayed the fire works downtown. Can't quite recall if there was a 3rd year or no but anyhow not saying this will happen again but the GFS is not alone the Nam also has afternoon storms so it could be rather interesting as we get closer to see how this unfolds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Engine2211 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 If the 00z GFS is correct looks like we start off the early 4Th of july am before sunrise with a complex of storms that could be strong to maybe severe. Then it has storms anytime anywhere throughout the rest of the day on 4th of july. Lets hope it is wrong we do need the rain but it would be nice not to have it on a holiday. On a side note not sure if anyone remembers but about 3-5 years ago we had a few years in a row with real nasty storms on 4th of July. First year of the series featured very heavy rain fall and severe storms. The second year had severe storms that delayed the fire works downtown. Can't quite recall if there was a 3rd year or no but anyhow not saying this will happen again but the GFS is not alone the Nam also has afternoon storms so it could be rather interesting as we get closer to see how this unfolds. I remember the one year in 2007 they were having the live concerts in Philly and Hall & Oates sang through the downpour while Patti Labelle ran away like a wuss! Heavy rain from Philly on westward. We Jersey folk hardly got a drop. Last year I remember we had some surprise thunderstorms. Mother Natures firwworks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soadforecaster Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 i live about 5 mins away from aston, i dont think they are that good to drive from collegeville Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Never been to the fireworks at Sun Valley. Its 9 minutes from me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike. I'm only minutes from Waltz Golf, but never saw their fireworks. Maybe phlwx would know since he has the scoop on that area pretty well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 That storm in west pa looks legit. Hope to see some fireworks from this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 That storm in west pa looks legit. Hope to see some fireworks from this one! Getting rather interesting latest RPM model really goes bonkers down the shore after 3am where there is instability right now. Those storms are separate from central pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Peaked at 94.4 here in NW Chesco, now back to 91.7, DP @ 70 (probably 67). Day #7 of 90+ this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I love fireworks, so this is one of the few days I am rooting against storms. Unless they can wait until after 10 PM - in that case, bring 'em on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cast4 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 This is a little off topic, but does anyone know how the fireworks at Watlz Golf Farm in Limerick compare to the ones in Skippack, King of Prussia or Radnor? My favorites are probably the ones down at Sun Valley High School in Aston, but that's a bit of a hike. The Tredyffrin ones at Wilson Park in Chesterbrook were pretty good last year. That's where I'm heading tonight. I think you have to pay to get into Radnor's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I'm only minutes from Waltz Golf, but never saw their fireworks. Maybe phlwx would know since he has the scoop on that area pretty well. Waltz's are good but we've usually gone to Phoenixville's display in past years when we've been around on the 4th. Planning to do Waltz this year (we're going to scout out a spot at Pope John Paul HS and hope that we get a good vantage point from their parking lot since that's not too far from home). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Iceman - just a few miles from you and up a couple hundred feet only 88.7 today - Just 3 - 90+ days this season - amazing that such a little elevation difference can effect the temp. Do you have a fan aspirated station? I really think most places report too warm because they lack the fan aspirated feature. Peaked at 94.4 here in NW Chesco, now back to 91.7, DP @ 70 (probably 67). Day #7 of 90+ this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Made it up to a high of 94 today, currently 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 4, 2012 Author Share Posted July 4, 2012 SPC has upgraded us to a slight risk and a watch is possible but only 40% chance of one. the lapse rates look good but I would like to see better shear. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1394.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Wow, didn't see a watch coming (or a possible watch). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Wow, didn't see a watch coming (or a possible watch). Meh, looks like it's fizzling out north of I-80. (hoping for a possible reverse jinx) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 5, 2012 Author Share Posted July 5, 2012 Meh, looks like it's fizzling out north of I-80. (hoping for a possible reverse jinx) The cluster west north west of wilkes barre is very well worth watching and may go severe as it comes into better instability and vertical shear. Weather or not it comes into our neck of the woods strong or severe remains to be seen and is nowcasting. Thunderheads to my northwest right now we shall see if anything pops. As for fireworks I am staying right here at my house private people come and set up at jardel rec here in the northeast usually is a good show! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The cluster west north west of wilkes barre is very well worth watching and may go severe as it comes into better instability and vertical shear. Weather or not it comes into our neck of the woods strong or severe remains to be seen and is nowcasting. Thunderheads to my northwest right now we shall see if anything pops. As for fireworks I am staying right here at my house private people come and set up at jardel rec here in the northeast usually is a good show! Those seem like their on course for Delco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LMolineuxLM1 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today. If it weren't the 4th of july it would have stayed as See Text, but i think they are trying to keep everyone in the loop, to bring more attention to the chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 don't understand why we were upgraded to slight risk...see text was perfect for today. Maybe a rapid uptick in the convection will occur anytime now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShoreWXgal Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just got back from watching fireworks in town ... It's disgusting out there 83 ..no breeze at all and muggy as hell .. Every biting fly and mosquito in South Jersey found me .. I pray we get some kind of rain . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormspotterlive Posted July 5, 2012 Author Share Posted July 5, 2012 Cells popping around Trenton now producing quite a bit of reflective lightning seeing some good crawlers believe it or not. Stll got some convection northwest of Allentown lets see if ti does anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 rumble rumble and some fireworks too fingers crossed for a down pour nice light show now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 The storm near Cream Ridge and New Egypt is pretty strong, likely producing much lightning and some hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Lightning show on the 4th of July to complement the fireworks, what more could you ask for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 nice little grass greening rain coming down with this lightshow Thunderstorm watch put up Eastern Berks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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