SmokeEater Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Miami County, Ohio is just getting raked, widespread 80-90 mph plus. Per scanner feed its literally snapping power poles, not just taking down lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Still hope for everyone back west. 000FXUS63 KDVN 292009 AFDDVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 309 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... 12Z UA ANALYSIS HAD AN IMPLIED 850MB WARM FRONT RUNNING FROM NORTHERN NEBRASKA INTO NORTHEAST MISSOURI. MOISTURE WAS POOLING NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY ACROSS IOWA AND ILLINOIS WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S. SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HAS THE MORNING CONVECTION WELL EAST OF THE AREA WITH NEW CONVECTION DEVELOPING AS A RESULT OF AN MCV IN WESTERN IOWA. TRENDS IN SATELLITE/RADAR THE PAST FEW HOURS SHOWS CONVECTION SLOWLY GETTING STRONGER. 18Z SFC ANALYSIS IS EXTREMELY NOISY WITH NUMEROUS MESOSCALE FEATURES. A WAKE LOW WAS NEAR KRFD WITH A MESO LOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE KDSM METRO AREA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WERE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWFA WITH ANOTHER WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING SOUTH FROM THE KDSM LOW TO NEAR KTVK. DEW POINTS WERE GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH POCKETS OF 70 DEW POINTS IN WESTERN IOWA AND ALONG THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHERN CWFA. && .SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND SATURDAY NONLINEAR PROCESSES ARE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX. AS SUCH ANALYSIS OF TRENDS AND CONCEPTUAL MODELS WERE USED HEAVILY FOR THE IMMEDIATE TERM. INPUT FROM RAP MODEL TRENDS USING THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS HELPED A LITTLE TOO. TRENDS FROM THE RAP MODEL SUGGEST CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND STRENGTHEN ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. MCS TOOL SUGGESTS THE COLLISION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY FROM THE MESO LOW WILL INITIATE CONVECTION THAT MOVES INTO THE CWFA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. SAID CONVECTION SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A LINEAR MCS THAT MOVES EAST AND SOUTH DURING THE EVENING HOURS. THE POTENTIAL ENERGY BUILT UP IN THE CLEAR AREAS ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA SHOULD ALLOW THE STORMS TO BECOME QUITE STRONG. SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH THE NEW CONVECTION. TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHAT HAPPENS. LATER TONIGHT...THE MCS AND LIFT TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING YET ANOTHER MCS WILL DEVELOP OUT WEST AND MOVE INTO THE AREA. EFFECTIVE BOUNDARIES LEFT OVER FROM THE EARLIER CONVECTION SHOULD DICTATE WHERE THIS CONVECTION GOES. REGARDLESS...THIS CONVECTION SHOULD BE ANOTHER LINEAR MCS. IF THIS MCS CAN BECOME SURFACE BASED...THE DIFFERENTIAL THETA E SUGGESTED IN THE MODELS WOULD SUPPORT SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND...POSSIBLY EXTREME...BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. THIS SECOND MCS SHOULD BE IN A DECAYING MODE OR EXITING THE CWFA SATURDAY MORNING. COLD POOLS LEFT OVER FROM THIS MCS ALONG WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WOULD THEN PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR NEW CONVECTION SATURDAY AFTERNOON. AS FOR THE HEAT HEADLINES...THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM CONVECTION THIS MORNING HAS HELPED HOLD DOWN TEMPERATURES SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE SOUTH. FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE CURRENT HEADLINES BUT CONVECTION LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING MAY RESULT IN THE HEAT ADVISORY BEING CANCELLED FOR MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. ..08.. .LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY... ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE AND HUMID WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS INTO MONDAY. OVERVIEW...CONCERNS OF NON-LINEAR CONVECTION AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AS HAVE OCCURRED TODAY AND DISCUSSED YESTERDAY TO REMAIN A MAJOR CHALLENGE INTO MONDAY. INITIALIZATION ADEQUATE WITH VERIFICATION SUGGESTING AN OVERWEIGHT OF GFS AND NAM-WRF. CONVECTION THIS PM AND TONIGHT WILL IMPACT NEXT ROUND OF CONVECTION TOMORROW NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS WELL AS TEMPERATURES...JUST LIKE TODAY. AGAIN...TIMING AND LOCATION OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE HARD TO CLARIFY BEYOND 6-12 HOURS AHEAD DUE TO NON-LINEAR NATURE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT CONVECTION EVENTS. HIGH TO EXTREME STABILITY IS STILL INDICATED INTO MONDAY WITH MUCAPES OF 2500 TO 4000+ J/KG...MAX DIFFERENTIAL THETA_E OF 30C...POSSIBLY MORE AND WBZ 12-14K AGL SUPPORTIVE OF RISK OF DAMAGING TO VERY DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE WINDS. THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS MAY SEE REPORTS OF 80+ MPH WINDS NEAR OR IN OUR FORECAST AREA DUE TO THIS HIGH TO EXTREME INSTABILITY. THIS HAS NOW OCCURRED TODAY WITH OUR CONVECTION THIS MORNING NOW MOVING EAST INTO NORTHERN INDIANA AS A BOWING SYSTEM AND IS BECOMING A DERECHO WITH FORT WAYNE AIRPORT REPORTING MEASURED WIND GUSTS OF 79 KTS...OR 91 MPH. TEMPERATURES TO STAY ABOVE NORMAL BY 5 TO 10 DEGREES THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...UPPED POPS WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION SUGGESTED...MAINLY FOR SOUTH 1/2 OF AREA. KEY WILL BE STRENGTH OF OUTFLOW FROM MCS TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. NORTH SECTIONS SHOULD STAY NORTH OF OF COOL POOL OUTFLOW AND SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS 90 DEGREES AND POSSIBLY ONLY MID 80S FOR LATER SHIFTS ON SUNDAY. MINS SATURDAY NIGHT MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES WITH UPPER 60S POSSIBLE IN HEAVIEST RAINFALL AREAS. HIGH PW/S OF OVER 1.5 UP TO 2 INCHES AND WEAKER STEERING CONTINUE TO SUPPORT LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OF 2 PLUS INCHES FOR LATER SHIFTS TO MONITOR AND POSSIBLY 3+ INCHES WITH TRAINING OF STORMS AND POSSIBLE T-BONE OF WARM ADVECTION WING OF STORMS AHEAD OF A MAIN BOWING LINE. IF WE GET GOOD LATE PM HEATING THEN CONCERN REMAINS OF A DECENT AREA OF STRONG WINDS WITH A BOWING SEGMENT AS MENTIONED ABOVE EARLIER DUE TO HIGH/EXTREME INSTABILITY. HEAT INDICES IN SOUTHERN SECTIONS MAY PUSH UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100 DEGREES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...HAVE LOW CHANCE POPS ATTM...POOR CONFIDENCE HERE DUE TO EVIDENCE OF WARM FRONT TO PUSH NORTH AND ENOUGH UPPER SUPPORT FOR ANOTHER MCS THAT SOLUTIONS OFTEN POORLY CAPTURE. LATER SHIFTS MAY NEED TO AGAIN UP POPS AND ADJUST HI TEMPERATURES DOWN AS THE CASE THE PREVIOUS 3 DAYS. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...AREA TO REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF OUR NORMAL MID SUMMER "RING OF FIRE" WITH STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDING. KEPT MOSTLY DRY BUT A LOW RISK OF CONVECTION REMAINS THAT MAY PROPAGATE OR FIRE FOR LATER SHIFTS TO RECONSIDER. MODERATE TO HIGH INSTABILITY CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WITH ANY STORMS WITH AGAIN STRONG STRAIGHT LINE WINDS DUE TO HIGH INSTABILITY. HI TEMPERATURES MOSTLY 90 TO 95 DEGREES WITH SOME UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN SOUTH AND LOWS MOSTLY 70 TO 75 DEGREES AND AFTERNOON HEAT INDICES 95 TO 100 DEGREES SUGGESTED FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL HOURS. EVIDENCE OF A BREAK IN THE HEAT TO DEVELOP BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Lot of juice for storms to work with too, in weakening CIN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 71kts at Dayton! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sojitodd Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Tornado sirens going off here in West Jefferson, Ohio, hail, power going off and on...can't find anything on NWS site.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 SEL7 URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 437 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 350 PM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST IOWA NORTHWEST ILLINOIS EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 350 PM UNTIL 900 PM CDT. HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF OTTUMWA IOWA TO 45 MILES NORTHEAST OF BURLINGTON IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 435...WW 436... DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF STORMS NEAR DSM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A REMNANT MCV. STRONG INSTABILITY IS PRESENT IN ADVANCE OF THE STORMS WHERE SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS WILL ALLOW ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE CONVECTION WILL HAVE A CORRIDOR TO SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY N OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS WRN IL AND SE IA. A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS CONVECTION FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030. ...THOMPSON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That is one huge derecho heading across Ohio. Glad it strengthened se of me here in Elkhart. Lots of widespread wind damage reports from trees down on houses and cars to tops of radio towers blown down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 reports rolling in from Ft Wayne area PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 511 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0300 PM TSTM WND GST 5 NE FORT WAYNE 41.13N 85.07W 06/29/2012 M88 MPH ALLEN IN TRAINED SPOTTER SIDING BLOWN OFF HOUSES...LARGE OAK TREE LIMBS DOWN...PEA SIZED HAIL AS WELL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 this one sounds intense PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 454 PM EDT FRI JUN 29 2012 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0305 PM TSTM WND DMG DECATUR 40.83N 84.93W 06/29/2012 ADAMS IN EMERGENCY MNGR MASSIVE DAMAGE THROUGH THE ENTIRE NORTH PART OF ADAMS COUNTY WITH INTERMITTENT DAMAGE THROUGHOUT. SMALL FIRES...TRUCKS BLOWN OVER...TREES DOWN...AND ROOFS BLOWN OFF IN DECATUR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Anybody know how much cloud to ground lightning this complex is producing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Anybody know how much cloud to ground lightning this complex is producing? NLDN on AWIPS is telling me over 1500 (+ and -) CGs in the last 15 minutes. So not including CC, IC, and CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ValpoVike Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 It was quite a ride here on the southwest side of Valpo when this storm initially formed. I was really surprised that this storm did not get warned. There was not much in the way of lightning and no hail, but the winds were extreme and the gusts kept coming for 10 minutes. Lot's of limbs down in the yard and the trampoline went airborne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like MCS #2 is starting up in Iowa with extreme instability in front of it too. Looks like this one will follow right behind the one from earlier today too, though maybe a touch south of the path of the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 More than 54,000 customers without power in Allen County In. alone (Fort Wayne area) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like MCS #2 is starting up in Iowa with extreme instability in front of it too. Looks like this one will follow right behind the one from earlier today too, though maybe a touch south of the path of the first one. Real nice mid level structure on that visible from KDVN. Nice meso around 10 kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2010 extreme Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 NLDN on AWIPS is telling me over 1500 (+ and -) CGs in the last 15 minutes. So not including CC, IC, and CA. Thanks much appreciated, been doing my own little study on mcs cg lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I love the warning from DVN, 80 mph winds at issuance. Not pulling any punches. Too often I think there is a tendency to go with your "standard" 60 mph/1" warning and upgrade with a SVS. We're better than that at issuance for sure. I think DMX will regret not extending that SVR to the DVN border though. They'll have to issue a tiny warning to cover that gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Real nice mid level structure on that visible from KDVN. Nice meso around 10 kft. Probably dropping monster hail out of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 My hunch is that the developing Iowa MCS will miss much of the Chicago area (proper), though barely, probably. Going by the instability axis, I'd say DVN to PIA to LAF might have some fun later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Keep in mind that there is a bit of a gap in the spotter network on the eastern end of the DMX CWA, much more dense in Iowa and especially Benton County. We might see reports all of a sudden jump up as the complex reaches there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Widespread but scattered tree damage across the Dayton area. I parked in an open area away from trees/poles and my car was being rocked like crazy. We were easily in the 60 mph range. No power at my house, neighbors lost their fence. That was fun, but now it sucks that I have no power. Ironically, it was the crappiest shelf cloud I've seen, but far and away the strongest straight line winds I've ever experienced...and I was in the RFD's of the two Henryville supercells in March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Probably dropping monster hail out of that storm. 60 dBZ was up to 37 kft for a time, at least good enough for 2"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Boy that complex in IA has the look of another monster in the making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That was pretty scary. I live near a baseball diamond and I looked out my window and all I could see was horizontal dust and twigs flying around. Tree in my front yard has cracked vertically up the trunk but it is still standing. Apparently some got hurt during the Tattoo event at Wright-Patt when some tents came down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Boy that complex in IA has the look of another monster in the making. Yea, i may head a bit north, however i'm hoping it can begin to make a right turn and head e/se along the instability gradient towards dvn and pia Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yea, i may head a bit north, however i'm hoping it can begin to make a right turn and head e/se along the instability gradient towards dvn and pia The atmosphere is recovering across nrn IL right now...we'll see where the gradient ends up but I have a feeling it's going to track N of PIA, especially given its current slightly N of due E motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The atmosphere is recovering across nrn IL right now...we'll see where the gradient ends up but I have a feeling it's going to track N of PIA, especially given its current slightly N of due E motion. I agree with you on that. As an aside, check out the back shearing on that anvil, it's almost a perfect pancake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The atmosphere is recovering across nrn IL right now...we'll see where the gradient ends up but I have a feeling it's going to track N of PIA, especially given its current slightly N of due E motion. I agree. I see an I-80 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Lost power very briefly. Winds were insane but oddly not much in the way of thunder and lightning. Temp dropped from 99 to 66 in 30 minutes according to local mets. There was supposed to be an outdoor event at Wright Patt AFB this evening which has since been canceled. As the storms were closing in, the officials at the event told people not to leave their homes. There wre 4 injuries from people that were there already. there was to be around 80,000 people at this event. Luckily the organizers learned from the tradgedy in Indiana last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 That was pretty scary. I live near a baseball diamond and I looked out my window and all I could see was horizontal dust and twigs flying around. Tree in my front yard has cracked vertically up the trunk but it is still standing. Apparently some got hurt during the Tattoo event at Wright-Patt when some tents came down. Looks like TCMH may have equipment problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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