Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yes, quite the mesoscale/microclimate t storm display for those in Chi town and nw IN area yesterday evening. I just have a hunch that today's storms will be created more because of forcing than lake breeze induced activity by looking at current radar and satellite this morning. The pattern is favorable for MCS/derecho action. Just gotta break that cap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Look out Alek. That eastern IA convection seems to be moving more east than se at present. I hope it stays on that course through Chicago and over to me here in Michiana. We are really hurting for rain. Am concerned we will have to pay the price of svr to get some though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Look out Alek. That eastern IA convection seems to be moving more east than se at present. I hope it stays on that course through Chicago and over to me here in Michiana. We are really hurting for rain. Am concerned we will have to pay the price of svr to get some though. I'll miss this round south...my chances come later tonight and into the weekend. Todays stuff will ride the best instability/theta-e pool to my south. Would be nice if it organized enough to give us some rain though. I'm just excited to see the boundary become active..including the stuff back into the plains...it should help generate some nice convectively enhanced vorts to play with as we go on. EDIT: cyclone is more in the immediate path Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 blowing up...chances increasing somewhat that downtown will be clipped. Still looks good for the I80 crew into Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 First svr warning issued by Chicago for this initial cluster. Gotta feeling that this might be an interesting day and evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 LAF is going to get hammered MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1305 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0922 AM CDT FRI JUN 29 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/CNTRL IL/IND CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH LIKELY VALID 291422Z - 291645Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS CROSSING THE MS VALLEY IN IA/IL SHOULD GROW UPSCALE AND BECOME SURFACE-BASED AS DOWNSTREAM HEATING INTENSIFIES. PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL...WHICH SHOULD BECOME SCATTERED IN COVERAGE THIS AFTERNOON. DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF AN MCV OVER ERN NEB...CLUSTER OF ELEVATED TSTMS HAS ERUPTED IN ERN IA INTO NWRN IL. THIS ACTIVITY IS N OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRL TO IND. WITH EXTREMELY BUOYANT MU PARCELS NOTED IN THE 12Z DVN/ILX RAOBS...MUCAPE AOA 6000 J/KG...CONVECTION-ALLOWING MODELS ARE FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT AN MCS SHOULD EVOLVE E/SEWD FROM THE MS VALLEY ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY RECENT HRRR RUNS. WITH INTENSE SURFACE HEATING EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM...THIS SCENARIO APPEARS PROBABLE WITHIN A MODERATE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL WLY FLOW REGIME. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITHIN BOWING LINEAR SEGMENTS. ..GRAMS/RACY/THOMPSON.. 06/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Hoping for a lot of "stratiform" (for the lack of a better word) trailing behind the MCS today. We all need the rain badly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 probably a pretty good candidate for becoming rooted later on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I think a lot of us are going to be in play today. Yes, the front is farther south and so is current theta gradient. But DMC is farther north and in that "elevated" convection Whiteside county in IL currently has a svr warning for winds of 70 mph. Gonna get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 blowing up...chances increasing somewhat that downtown will be clipped. Still looks good for the I80 crew into Indiana. We'll see. As you mentioned earlier (I think), these tend to follow axes of high theta-e (or moisture, basically). That would suggest a southward turn in the track of the developing complex (which would seem poised to become an MCS). It's moving pretty due eastward ATTM, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 We'll see. As you mentioned earlier (I think), these tend to follow axes of high theta-e (or moisture, basically). That would suggest a southward turn in the track of the developing complex (which would seem poised to become an MCS). It's moving pretty due eastward ATTM, though. Agree. On the plus side, there's plenty of elevated instability, steep mid level lapse rates and moisture to work with for us on the cool side. Northern edge looks healthy for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 already have a nice view of the dark cloud deck to the west...these morning complexes with full sun to the east always look so ominous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like anyone south of I-88/290 is in play. The shallow depth of the cool/dry layer on the DVN sounding indicates to me that the theta-e gradient may mix north and keep areas north of I-80 in play for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like anyone south of I-88/290 is in play. The shallow depth of the cool/dry layer on the DVN sounding indicates to me that the theta-e gradient may mix north and keep areas north of I-80 in play for awhile. Agreed, Tony. It's going to be a close call for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 line appears to be bowing out a little now as it enters the western burbs. Small lead cell just went up north of Joliet as well. Looks like all systems go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 new mega box for the core of the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Winds are beginning to gust up to 35-40 MPH or so; just saw a stroke of lightning after thunder being audible for the last seven or so minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Shelf cloud overhead, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Getting ready for the shelf cloud at work in Elmhurst . . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoar_Frost Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Now, some rain -- first since the wee hours of 17 June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 so close yet so far from me here in mid michigan. oh well, at least someone is getting something, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 dewpoint at ORD.....50 this thing is on borrowed time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 so close yet so far from me here in mid michigan. oh well, at least someone is getting something, Right now, rain anywhere is good. I would rather it be in my back yard, but pretty much everyone needs it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 29, 2012 Author Share Posted June 29, 2012 Little to no wind here with it. It had a nice shelf cloud though... I went out a bit too late to take a time-lape or any real good shots, but I was able to take a few as it was about to pass overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 dewpoint at ORD.....50 this thing is on borrowed time 92/76 here at noon. Juicy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The paramaters are about as high as you will ever see in Indiana right now. If only we could gt something to fire. Its 98/77 on my home gauge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Is this thing ever going to start it's move south east. The warm from looks a bit further north that I expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 really great shelf cloud but it's super elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yeah, it might iintensify on its southern end. Dew is 67 at Kankakee and very robust over IN locations to the se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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