OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Yep, sure does. The latest scan just popped up and shows what's likely the beginning of some strong surface winds. North of Hebron the velocities have jumped up at around 3000ft. Latest SVS bumped winds to 70 mph as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 O_O Too bad. The dry grounds will allow us to heat up pretty good over the next few days though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 00z DTX...loaded gun Edit: My bad, didn't refresh and therefore didn't see that M4D posted it before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Lot sampling 64kt tops between Hebron and Valpo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Looks like a mesovortex taking shape nicely west of Kouts between 5-8kft. EDIT: Gonna have to keep an eye on that. Can't rule out a tornado with that if it develops further down the ladder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 00z DTX...loaded gun Edit: My bad, didn't refresh and therefore didn't see that M4D posted it before me. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1298 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0753 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...FAR NWRN PA CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 290053Z - 290230Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...PORTIONS OF SERN LOWER MI...NRN OH...AND FAR NWRN PA ARE BEING MONITORED FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND A POSSIBLE SVR THREAT. A WW MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS EVENING. DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR/VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SERN LOWER MI -- WITHIN A RELATIVE MINIMUM OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION INVOF A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS SW OF A TRIPLE POINT LOCATED 35 MILES SSE OF BAD AXE MI. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION COULD DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR LEADING THE COLD FRONT INTO SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AIDED BY INCREASING ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH MASS CONVERGENCE WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A STRENGTHENING PRE-FRONTAL 850-700-MB SPEED MAX. WITH GENERALLY 2000-3500 J/KG OF MLCAPE IN PLACE -- PROVIDED STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ATOP RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE -- AMIDST 40-50 KT OF WNWLY MID-LEVEL FLOW PER DETROIT AND CLEVELAND VWP DATA...ROBUST UPDRAFTS MAY ENSUE. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME QUESTION AS TO WHETHER SUBSTANTIAL STORM COVERAGE WILL OCCUR OWING TO NOTABLE CINH WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR -- CHARACTERIZED BY 700-MB TEMPS IN EXCESS OF 15C -- WITH CINH REINFORCED BY NOCTURNAL COOLING. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND MODERATE VERTICAL SHEAR...AND GIVEN THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES AREA...AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ORGANIZED/SEVERE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...MORE LIKELY AFTER 03Z. SHOULD THIS THREAT APPEAR TO INCREASE...A WW MAY BE NEEDED. ..COHEN/HART.. 06/29/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The NAM and RAP both suggest that 700mb temps will decrease to 10-12C by 03z...it will be a close call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 A little wind to go along with the hail on that lead cell. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA 931 PM EDT THU JUN 28 2012 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0925 PM TSTM WND GST NORTH JUDSON 41.22N 86.78W 06/28/2012 E60 MPH STARKE IN LAW ENFORCEMENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 8000 J/kg MUCAPE on SPC Mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Reports of lots of trees and power lines down in northern Pulaski County IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 The supercell east of Detroit TORNADO WARNING ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 10:09 PM EDT THURSDAY 28 JUNE 2012. --------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO WARNING FOR: =NEW= CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK. --------------------------------------------------------------------- ==DISCUSSION== AT 10:05 PM EDT A CANWARN STORM SPOTTER HAS REPORTED A POSSIBLE FUNNEL CLOUD OVER THE CITY OF CHATHAM. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A TORNADO WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WIND GUSTS TO 90 KM/H. THE STORM WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEASTWARD AT 50 KM/H. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Pretty much record PWAT territory, above the 99th percentile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Those things fell apart fast as they moved farther east in northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Those things fell apart fast as they moved farther east in northern Indiana. Probably the lack of lake influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 If an MCS does develop later tonight, I'm sure the 30-40kt of bulk shear across nrn IL/ern IA/nrn IN and the reservoir of 7500J/kg MLCAPE would love to feed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 9000j/kg MUCAPE over central IL at midnight per SPC meso-analysis. Really? That is just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 9000j/kg MUCAPE over central IL at midnight per SPC meso-analysis. Really? That is just incredible. Might be one of the highest MUCAPE plots I have ever seen, the more incredible part is that it will go unused tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 There was a day last summer with extreme instability still around at like 1 or 2am? I think Ocean would remember what I'm talking about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Day 1 slight along the E-W frontal boundary from the NE/IA border to OH. don't see this too often in an outlook, written by Roger Edwards. ...NRN PLAINS AND MID MO VALLEY TO OH... A FEW CLUSTERS OF STG-SVR TSTMS MAY DEVELOP DURING AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT IN THIS CORRIDOR...TAKING ADVANTAGE OF STEEP LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL LAPSE RATES...NEAR-FRONTAL LIFT...AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR SVR HAIL/WIND RISK. WHILE FOCI FOR INITIATION APPEAR RATHER VAGUE WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...PRIND MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR RELATIVELY CONCENTRATED SVR THREAT IS THAT PORTION OF FRONTAL ZONE OVER WHICH LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WITH AFOREMENTIONED MID-UPPER PERTURBATIONS WILL PASS...JUXTAPOSED WITH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND LARGE BUOYANCY. THIS APPEARS MOST PROBABLE FROM IA/NEB BORDER REGION ESEWD TO OH...WHERE PLUME OF RELATIVELY ENHANCED LOW-MIDDLE LEVEL MOISTURE AND INTENSE SFC HEATING WILL BOOST MLCAPE INTO 3000-6000 J/KG RANGE...LOCALLY HIGHER. WITH MORE CONFIDENCE IN INITIATION ACROSS IA/NRN IL...SIGNIFICANT-HAIL AREA AND/OR MESOSCALE CORRIDOR OF GREATER UNCONDITIONAL PROBABILITIES MAY BE NEEDED...GIVEN FCST OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND AT LEAST MRGL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Watching the lake/cold front interactions starting around 19-20z yesterday was awesome...the way the lake provided just enough help to get a few monster cells to go up and thrive only to get pummeled back to death by mid level warmth once straying too far was awesome...great learning experience for me. Anyways...I half expected a dying MCS somewhere in the vicinity of cyclone territory this morning and activity back into the plains doesn't look all that organized. One thing you can see is the boundary lifting back northward and I think we'll definitely see a couple rounds of action across the immediate region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 FWIW, 6z NMM develops an afternoon/early evening MCS from northern/northeast IL that goes through northern parts of IN (clips LAF)...all the way east through central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 FWIW, 6z NMM develops an afternoon/early evening MCS from northern/northeast IL that goes through northern parts of IN (clips LAF)...all the way east through central OH. I definitely think that will be the favored track if anything is to get going that early...possibly even a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 30% wind and hail (hatched) probs with the new outlook for northeastern IL (south of Chicago), ESE through to central OH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 30% wind and hail (hatched) probs with the new outlook for northeastern IL (south of Chicago), ESE through to central OH. you're gonna get smoked...quite the pain train lining up back in Iowa already with loads of juice your way...enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 you're gonna get smoked...quite the pain train lining up back in Iowa already with loads of juice your way...enjoy! Hope so. Definitely loads of fuel out there, should be entertaining for somebody. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Storm train also looks to run over some pretty intense drought conditions...could see widespread relief between 74 and 80. Hope so. Definitely loads of fuel out there, should be entertaining for somebody. I think mucape was around 6000 over LAF when I woke up this morning on the SPC mesoanalyis. It also looks like we'll finally see some proper cold pool development and decent track length. FWIW the HRRR is initializing the ongoing convection in Iowa pretty damn well...should give a decent idea as to downstream growth. RAP is junk. Cool looking early visible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Lock it in. Potential derecho? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 a couple healthy towers going up N of QC....I think we might have an LAF MCS in the making Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Enjoy the storms guys. Today looks good. I'm off to Traverse City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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