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June 28-July 8th Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

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Storm has to be very happy to have 6000j/kg of surface cape to ingest. Pretty steep mid-level lapse rates as well.

EDIT: SPC meso analysis shows 8500j/kg of mixed-layer cape over south-central Iowa.

DVN will probably be just behind the boundary, but ILX probably has that sampled well with the sounding.

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SPC is in the process of issuing a t-storm watch.

EDIT: It's a small one:

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 433

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

725 PM CDT THU JUN 28 2012

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 433 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM CDT

FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS

INC073-091-127-131-149-290400-

/O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0433.120629T0025Z-120629T0400Z/

IN

. INDIANA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE

JASPER LA PORTE PORTER

PULASKI STARKE

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HRRR also shows a decent looking line of storms moving through SEMI....however it also says that the line should have developed by now and clearly it hasn't

Something decent went up by Lake Orion a little while ago but it's crapping the bed already. Got about 10 raindrops IMBY...really cooled things off. ;)

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Gonna have to watch that front side of the cell southwest of Valparaiso. The leading edge has caught up to the outflow there and will soon overtake it and be out into undisturbed BL environment. Could start to see some big wind gusts south of Valp down near Kouts and La Crosse.

It does have that look, that it wants to really start putting down a cold pool and cranking some wind.

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