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June 28-July 8th Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

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I was just looking at the hourly obs from Windsor ON across from Detroit -- 38 C at 6 p.m. (100 F) and then 18 C (65 F) at 7 p.m. but the winds with that storm were SSE veering to SW. Quite unusual to see that big a drop without a northerly component for the downdraft, but it is what it is.

22z RAP sounding for Detroit showed quite a bit of dry air just above the level of saturation (LCL), almost a pseudo-inverted v type of sounding (dewpoint depression of nearly 40 degrees) thanks to some lowering of the dewpoints near the surface. Thus you had the really low wet bulb temperatures, which is what you observed, even despite the lack of any large scale airmass change.

Downdraft cape was about about 1500-2000 J/KG as the storms moved through, which only enhanced the downward momentum of that air.

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If the last two days produced for SEMI, I see no reason why tomorrow shouldn't...

As long as that boundary stays in the area it should, not to mention the batch of storms moving through the state should lay down some outflow boundaries that could focus convection too. Plus any sort of lake breeze or differential heating boundary in the area. Lastly depending how hot we get we could just approach the convective temp for the area.

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Nice looking batch of storms making it's way here. Too bad I have to get up so darn early for work. Oh well.

Yeah it has maintained itself nicely as it has crossed the lake and into Michigan. With new cells starting to form out ahead of it too, maybe a WAA wing trying to form. If that is the case it probably won't be weakening any time soon. Last couple of frames it looks like it is trying to jog a bit more to the ESE than it has been, which would put it much closer to the Metro area compared to what I originally thought.

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Per latest md spc will put out a watch for parts of grr and dtx cwa

ww0467_radar.gif

DISCUSSION...SMALL MCS WITH A HISTORY OF WIND DAMAGE WILL CONTINUE

SEWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THE COMBINATION OF A

WARM AND MOIST INFLOW AIR MASS AND MODERATELY STRONG DEEP...NWLY

SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF FORWARD-PROPAGATION/ACCELERATION WITH A

RISK FOR MAINLY DAMAGING WINDS.

Looks like I am staying up :)

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0315 AM TSTM WND DMG ST. JOHNS 43.00N 84.56W

07/05/2012 CLINTON MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

ESTIMATED OVER 100 TREES WERE DOWN ACROSS THE COUNTY.

SEVERAL ROADS BLOCKED BY FALLEN TREES. WORST HIT AREA WAS

ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY.

0315 AM TSTM WND DMG NORTH STAR 43.25N 84.54W

07/05/2012 GRATIOT MI COUNTY OFFICIAL

NUMEROUS TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE

COUNTY. WORST HIT AREAS WERE NORTH OF M-57 AND THE TOWN

OF NORTH STAR

This was right when it bowed out as it crossed the US-127 corridor.

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Was just woken up by the gust front near ARB. I can't believe this actually managed to develop out of what was left when I went to bed 5 hours ago. The HRRR was struggling to develop something in its runs but I figured nothing would come of it. Poor model performance sniffing this one out, I think.

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