SpartyOn Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Will she grow into a 500 mile long wind driven beast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Will she grow into a 500 mile long wind driven beast? Derecho composite, MCS maintanence, CAPE, DCAPE all would point to yes. EDIT: Whoops, I think it'll keep going for that length, but dunno about any expansion north or south of its current size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Is this a boundary waters derecho redo? Boundary Waters derecho was on July 4 and 5, 1999 radar image- about noon (CDT) July 4, 1999 http://www.greatlakes.salsite.com/SevereStorms/BoundaryWaters/DLH/20.png http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/AbtDerechos/casepages/jul4-51999page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1389.html Potentially looking at two rounds of storms? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Is this a boundary waters derecho redo? Boundary Waters derecho was on July 4 and 5, 1999 radar image- about noon (CDT) July 4, 1999 http://www.greatlake...ters/DLH/20.png http://www.spc.noaa....4-51999page.htm Is it really going to continue on an easterly path is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Severe thunderstorm watch now in effect for SEMI. Storms are really starting to fire west of Saginaw where there are a few warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Watch out for Most of Lower Michigan until 10pm. DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG A CONFLUENCE BAND ACROSS CENTRAL/SE LOWER MI...WHERE A HOT/DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS IMPINGES ON THE BOUNDARY. ADDITIONALLY...A SUBTLE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX IS MOVING SEWD OVER NRN LOWER MI. GIVEN THE STRONG INSTABILITY AND MODEST NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW ENVIRONMENT...THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS WITH THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THROUGH LATE EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siberian Express Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 It's rolling through there now Is this a boundary waters derecho redo? Boundary Waters derecho was on July 4 and 5, 1999 radar image- about noon (CDT) July 4, 1999 http://www.greatlake...ters/DLH/20.png http://www.spc.noaa....4-51999page.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMidwest Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Is this a boundary waters derecho redo? Boundary Waters derecho was on July 4 and 5, 1999 radar image- about noon (CDT) July 4, 1999 http://www.greatlake...ters/DLH/20.png http://www.spc.noaa....4-51999page.htm Interesting Analog, 1999 came up as the top match for 2012 concerning the MEAN EPO pattern the last 6 month (January-June). -EPO here means GOA/Alaskan Low , NP troffing pattern, and Central U.S. Ridge/ High and vice versa for +Polarity. It would make sense for something like this to develop via Ring of Fire Pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 That cell coming ashore in the the UP looks like a beast. Looks Like some pretty good albiet broad rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nice little cells going up along a confluence boundary extending from central lower MI down into southeastern MI. This is one of the only focus points for storms today along with a small disturbance noted on WV imagery that has pushed into the upper an central lower portions of MI. Plenty of instability exists in this environment with MLCAPE values around 4000J/kg which will allow rapid growth of storms. Not very much shear to work with at all right now with 0-6km shear less than 30kts. With that said, main threats from these storms appear to be winds and hail along with torrential rains due to the high moisture associated with this airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Really crossing my fingers that the mcs over lake superior begins to turn SE and follow the better instability. If it does, per the latest MD from the SPC, it could flare up once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Getting thunder now. Best storm of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Looks like most of the stuff should stay right along 696 and south! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Just missed out on the golf ball sized hail 0601 PM HAIL 1 E WARREN 42.49N 83.01W 07/04/2012 M1.75 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER AT 11 MILE AND HOOVER 0604 PM HAIL 2 S WARREN 42.46N 83.03W 07/04/2012 M1.00 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER AT 9 MILE AND VAN DYKE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nasty looking cell right across the border. Warning on it. Windsor - Leamington - Essex County 6:14 PM EDT Wednesday 04 July 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning for Windsor - Leamington - Essex County continued At 6:00 PM radar indicates a severe thunderstorm over Southern Lake St Clair near Windsor moving southwards at 20 km/h. Large hail, torrential downpours and severe winds are possible with this storm. So far there have been reports over Southern Ontario of toonie sized hail and torrential downpours. Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes. Emergency management Ontario recommends taking cover immediately when threatening weather approaches. Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park 6:14 PM EDT Wednesday 04 July 2012 Severe thunderstorm warning for Chatham-Kent - Rondeau Park continued At 6:00 PM radar indicates a severe thunderstorm over Southern Lake St Clair near Windsor moving southwards at 20 km/h. Large hail, torrential downpours and severe winds are possible with this storm. So far there have been reports over Southern Ontario of toonie sized hail and torrential downpours. Severe thunderstorms are imminent or occurring in the area. These storms may produce large hail, damaging winds or heavy rainfall. Remember that some severe thunderstorms can also produce tornadoes. Emergency management Ontario recommends taking cover immediately when threatening weather approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 2.75" hail in Mecosta County earlier today following 100 degree temps. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Had some penny size hail in Warren, MI near 10/Ryan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Just missed out on the golf ball sized hail 0601 PM HAIL 1 E WARREN 42.49N 83.01W 07/04/2012 M1.75 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER AT 11 MILE AND HOOVER 0604 PM HAIL 2 S WARREN 42.46N 83.03W 07/04/2012 M1.00 INCH MACOMB MI TRAINED SPOTTER AT 9 MILE AND VAN DYKE And I'm on 15 and half Van Dyke .... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I just had quarter sized hail and winds to 50 about 10 mins ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 A sneaking suspicion ill niss out on these unless they reform on the outflow boundary from the storms over detroit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettman320 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I live at 11 and Hoover. Here is some of the hail I got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Wow, that Oakland county cell just kept on back building right on me. Picked up 1.23" in the last hour, ponding is pretty bad on the roads. Didn't get out of work until the tail end up the storm, at which point there was penny sized hail coming down. Brother said there was also some strong winds earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Nice pic brettman320...many, many reports of 1"+ hail over SE Oakland, southern Macomb, and NE Wayne. Some of my friends in Eastpointe reporting flooding side streets and large hail like Stebo mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Got some mammatus now. Mostly to my West and Southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Got some mammatus now. Mostly to my West and Southwest Yep, some subtle mammatus overhead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Just an aside for a heads up to our forum members....95/69 currently in D.C. for a live Capitol 4th Celebration with svr t storms crossing the mountains to their nw. Broadcast live on most PBS stations. I imagine the mid atlantic forum will have live updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Reports say its been torrential rain and flooding, hail, wind, etc at Comerica Park. Here, the sky grew ominous as the storms swirled around to our north and east, and the wind got extremely gusty despite no actual rain. Then the storm finally hit, a storm hit with lots torrential falling/blowing rain & very low visibiliy, though it was rather brief unlike those areas just to my north. Took pics too. Temp fell from 99F to 75F in 50 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 Pics of storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 5, 2012 Share Posted July 5, 2012 I was just looking at the hourly obs from Windsor ON across from Detroit -- 38 C at 6 p.m. (100 F) and then 18 C (65 F) at 7 p.m. but the winds with that storm were SSE veering to SW. Quite unusual to see that big a drop without a northerly component for the downdraft, but it is what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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