hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What's that boundary on the radar near Howell? Seems to be where most of the storms are firing up from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1375 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0334 PM CDT TUE JUL 03 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...SE LOWER MI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 032034Z - 032200Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT SUMMARY...A SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LOWER MI. A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL LIKELY EXIST. THE THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE TOO SHORT IN TIME AND SPACE FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A WATCH. DISCUSSION...SEVERAL SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING ON THE WRN SUBURBS OF DETROIT LOCATED JUST AHEAD OF A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OF THE CNTRL PART OF LOWER MI. THE STORMS ARE LOCATED ON THE EAST SIDE OF A NORTH TO SOUTH FRONTAL BOUNDARY ON THE ERN EDGE OF A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 TO 2000 J/KG RANGE. THIS COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ON THE DETROIT WSR-88D VWP SUGGESTS THE ENVIRONMENT WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...THE 12Z SOUNDING FROM DETROIT SHOWS A STEEP LAPSE RATE FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO THE MID-LEVELS WITH -14C JUST BELOW 500 MB. THIS SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL AS THE CELLS MOVE SEWD ACROSS THE DETROIT METRO OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ALSO...THE STORMS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS DUE TO THE UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES EVIDENT ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS. ..BROYLES/THOMPSON.. 07/03/2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What's that boundary on the radar near Howell? Seems to be where most of the storms are firing up from. I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What's that boundary on the radar near Howell? Seems to be where most of the storms are firing up from. Remnant outflow boundary from this mornings convection that was reinforced by the warm air to the West of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What's that boundary on the radar near Howell? Seems to be where most of the storms are firing up from. I saw that too. As soon as that big cell plowed through it, the cell caused a half-circle outflow boundary(?) that surrounded its front, north, and south sides. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeesh... Forgot how nasty hail sounds when your driving, even when it's just pea sized. Remnant outflow boundary from this mornings convection that was reinforced by the warm air to the West of it. Cool... Never thought this morning in storms would end up helping us out. But we were able to destabilize nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 That cell that just went through Ann Arbor was great. Tons of CtG lightning, very loud thunder, extremely heavy downpour (no hail that I saw), freezing cold gusts of wind, and an awesome rainbow at the end. It ALMOST makes this sorry summer worth it. ALMOST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Storm that just hit me was easily the most intense that I've seen in a while. Probably 60 mph winds...gonna check for tree damage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I can see the hail core of the cell to my due South out the window of the tower here, missed us by about 3-5 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The amount of thunder I heard today was ridiculous. Probably about 6 hours of it total. It was all the same too, just a distant, low pitched crackle ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 congrats on the active day DTW crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The amount of thunder I heard today was ridiculous. Probably about 6 hours of it total. It was all the same too, just a distant, low pitched crackle ... . Indeed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 congrats on the active day DTW crew Don't worry your boy powerball will be on later to say it missed him and that he wished it got to 1000 degrees today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Don't worry your boy powerball will be on later to say it missed him and that he wished it got to 1000 degrees today. LMFAO!! What an amazing day of storms. Ended up with 3-4" of rain. Near golf ball size hail, 50 mph winds, torrential rains, sub flooding, training, numerous lightning and a few strikes were real close. Only bad thing... Power is out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Summing up today... 6:30 a.m. - Intercept a weakening line of storms about 5 miles SE of Ortonville. Still get 40 mph winds, and frequent CTG lightning. 9:15 a.m. - Cluster of storms develops right over my house. Occasional CTG lightning, and torrential downpours for almost 30 minutes. 12:15 p.m. - Line of storms just brushes me, but insane lightning show for about 30 minutes. 4:00 p.m. - Storms blow up just to my north...insane anvil. 5:15 p.m. - Intercept a storm in Ortonville...50 mph winds, and pea sized hail. 6:30 p.m. - Final storm of the day produces 65-70 winds and knocks down a bunch of trees right IMBY All in all, best Michigan severe weather day for me personally since 6/25/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 LMFAO!! What an amazing day of storms. Ended up with 3-4" of rain. Near golf ball size hail, 50 mph winds, torrential rains, sub flooding, training, numerous lightning and a few strikes were real close. Only bad thing... Power is out. Hopefully that is fixed soon. Despite breaking the streak, it was a really interesting day. I woke up around 7 to the crack of thunder, which continued on and off until I left for work close to 11. Those type of storms that redevelop repeatedly over the same areas, especially from Detroit Metro northward, provide beneficial rainfall without causing much damage, also providing a nice thunder/lightning show. Felt like early morning at 10:30 due to a nice developing storm overhead. The scud and assoicated updrafts were apparent at times. Hopefully other areas in need can benefit from this kind of activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 BTW: i live in a new sub and there was a porta john that blew over across the street from my home. Gross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Kab: DTE says it could take until 11:30pm tomorrow night before its restored. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Kab: DTE says it could take until 11:30pm tomorrow night before its restored. They estimated 3 days for me after the April 03 ice storm. An hour after that estimation, the power came back on. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 They estimated 3 days for me after the April 03 ice storm. An hour after that estimation, the power came back on. lol I've found that DTE's estimations after thunderstorm damage are pretty much crapshoots. When a power outage is non-thunderstorm related, the estimations are much more accurate. Hope you get it back on soon, dmc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Again not a classic supercell, but CLE has put out another TOR, this one near Youngstown: BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 1057 PM EDT TUE JUL 3 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN MAHONING COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... NORTHEASTERN STARK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OHIO... * UNTIL 1145 PM EDT * AT 1054 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF ALLIANCE...OR 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF RAVENNA...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 35 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... ALLIANCE...SEBRING...MAPLE RIDGE AND BELOIT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Another TOR in extreme eastern Ohio...I don't see it but you never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Another TOR in extreme eastern Ohio...I don't see it but you never know. I'd like to see how the CLE office stacks up with regards to tornado warning verification statistics compared to other offices. I know it's probably obligatory to issue a tornado warning every time there is a TVS, but it seems these warnings get so overblown, that the public doesn't really understand them. Last year seemed to be a more active tornado season here, with 6 confirmed tornado events, but that comes from a total of 25 tornado warning events. I think CLE has only issued 7 warnings this year so far, but with zero confirmed tornados. On the same vein, it's actually mind blowing how incompetent the public is with regards to warnings. I was driving in to work the other morning and the radio DJ's were talking about the severe storms and how they were taking cover in Cuyahoga County (for the tornado warned storm over in Sandusky 60 miles away on Sunday)! They were literally confused (and laughing) as to how a storm could be "downgraded" from severe to non severe as it moved someplace else (let alone they were completely different storm cells)! I think once one warning goes up in a media market (especially a TOR), everyone thinks that the storm that is hitting them is severe. It must be hard to comprehend that in a large region there can be areas of severe storms, areas of regular thunderstorms, and areas of light rain showers with associated thunder. But I think in these parts a lot of people just equate thunderstorm to severe, regardless of intensity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 If those storms in MN develop into an MCS, today would be a decent severe weather day with more instability/heat/moisture in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Northern WI and Most of Michigan has been added to a slight risk for today. ...NRN WI TO LOWER MI THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... FARTHER SE ALONG THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WI/LOWER MI...STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND STRONG INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE ONLY CLEAR FOCUS FOR STORM INITIATION WILL BE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY...WHILE A DIFFUSE SPEED MAX ALOFT MOVES ESEWD FROM WRN UPPER MI TOWARD LOWER MI. STORM COVERAGE REMAINS QUESTIONABLE ALONG THIS CORRIDOR...BUT THE STEEP LAPSE RATES/LARGE BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT A CONDITIONAL RISK FOR LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS...PRIMARILY WITH MULTICELL STORMS. Can't argue that as anything that pops up will have about 5000 J/kg of SB CAPE and 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with. Also some weak shear is in the area, effective shear is around 20-25 kts. Currently N. WI would have the better shot of something forming though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Northern WI and Most of Michigan has been added to a slight risk for today. Can't argue that as anything that pops up will have about 5000 J/kg of SB CAPE and 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with. Also some weak shear is in the area, effective shear is around 20-25 kts. Currently N. WI would have the better shot of something forming though. You've got that CAPE to work with along with some convergence. Shear closer to 30kts would help you sustain anything that goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Northern WI and Most of Michigan has been added to a slight risk for today. Can't argue that as anything that pops up will have about 5000 J/kg of SB CAPE and 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE to work with. Also some weak shear is in the area, effective shear is around 20-25 kts. Currently N. WI would have the better shot of something forming though. Already a nice CU field in my area. Just need to get rid of that inversion at 600 mb, then we should be good to go. Not expecting anything to be long-lived due to the lack of shear, but with 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, anything that forms will likely be severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Already a nice CU field in my area. Just need to get rid of that inversion at 600 mb, then we should be good to go. Not expecting anything to be long-lived due to the lack of shear, but with 3500 J/kg of MLCAPE, anything that forms will likely be severe. Already noticed a small pulse storm that went up fast and furious to only die 20 mins later. This cell was near South Lyon. Now its nothing more than blow-off debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 Cap doesn't look thermonuclear tomorrow. Not really much of a trigger in most areas other than daytime heating (perhaps lake breeze boundaries?) but that should be enough to allow for at least a smattering of tstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 textbook bow echo up in northern MN right now with it's own mesocale warm front/waa wing with the arching nw-se storms out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.