mnweather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 storm is just starting here, wind really picking up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I posted an analysis/forecast of the MCS on my blog, threw in details of the dynamics involving various aspects of mesoscale convective systems. Nice enhanced V on infrared, so tops are in the lower stratosphere! http://weather.schematical.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The one thing that makes me wonder is all the convection developing in ern WI. If that is indeed a WAA wing (and I suspect that's at least partially the mechanism), then I see a good shot of this MCS continuing to turn S. MCSs don't normally cross WAA wings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The one thing that makes me wonder is all the convection developing in ern WI. If that is indeed a WAA wing (and I suspect that's at least partially the mechanism), then I see a good shot of this MCS continuing to turn S. MCSs don't normally cross WAA wings. i agree, I think this might turn at the very least ESE. If I was North of Milwaukee I would be really watching this thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Just in awe at the MCS... Cross sections are just beautiful out of DLH. The entire melting layer (DP RHO) is raised 5 to 7 thousand feet at the front edge of the storm with the massive uplift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Just in awe at the MCS... Cross sections are just beautiful out of DLH. The entire melting layer (DP RHO) is raised 5 to 7 thousand feet at the front edge of the storm with the massive uplift. Could you post some screen shots of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 i agree, I think this might turn at the very least ESE. If I was North of Milwaukee I would be really watching this thing. The Green Bay area and EC Wisconsin definitely have to watch this one, and looks like the SW part of the derecho is starting to bow in a general SSE direction, but given how the first line of storms petered away as it approached, it would be hard to see this packing much punch, especially if it travels over areas that might already be worked over from the evening storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Could you post some screen shots of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
QcSevereWx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 ...some nasty anvil crawlers... incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I am surprised that the warning statement they have out for this is just for in excess of 60mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnweather Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I am surprised that the warning statement they have out for this is just for in excess of 60mph. I had maybe 40 mph gusts when it came through, it looked worse on radar than when it came through here anyways, other spots have been much worse though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Hurrecho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 What do you guys see for Southern Ontario tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Update on southern Ontario severe storm potential ... Frontal zone between severe heat and less intense warm air mass is likely to remain q.s. across south-central MI into southwestern ON on a Grand Bend to Woodstock to Erie PA line. Expect heavy to severe storms to develop from Michigan into that frontal zone with possible excessive rainfalls of 100-200 mm (4-8 in) and intense lightning (late afternoon-evening), then evolution into an MCS or even a modified derecho moving ESE towards wNY with a secondary frontal zone also active across Lake Huron into Bruce-Grey southeast to Hamilton, this may be picked up as part of the MCS and swept east, but as the front will remain in place further cells may continue to develop leading to further heavy rainfalls. This could be more extreme for rainfall than other elements of severe weather but we should be alert for all types. Based partly on climatology, Lucan to Ingersoll would be a chase target or at least a flash flood risk maximum, perhaps this is not the best kind of severe storm to be chasing. Entrainment and outflow issues could also hit the city of London at least north end. I'll be back ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 This line has literally exploded! Sirens are going off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Finally some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Just woke up from the thunder and checked radar scope on my phone, got split pretty bad here and just grazed. Back to sleep... Edit: good sleeping weather though. Ok back to sleep for real now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Just woke up from the thunder and checked radar scope on my phone, got split pretty bad here and just grazed. Back to sleep... Same thing happened here. Pretty lame. Barely raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Just woke up from the thunder and checked radar scope on my phone, got split pretty bad here and just grazed. Back to sleep... Edit: good sleeping weather though. Ok back to sleep for real now. Same thing happened here. Pretty lame. Barely raining Would you guys like a little cheese with your whine? At least MOST of your area is getting some rain. In fact, the radar looks pretty good right now. There are thousands of people in this part of the country praying for a little rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Would you guys like a little cheese with your whine? At least MOST of your area is getting some rain. In fact, the radar looks pretty good right now. There are thousands of people in this part of the country praying for a little rain. Nice try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Intercepted the line that produced 70 mph winds and golfball sized hail in SE Genesee County, but it weakened by the time I got to it. Ended up with 40 mph winds, torrential downpours, and lots of CTG lightning. No hail, and no good photo opportunities. Wish I had woken up earlier and been able to make it up to Grand Blanc, but it's only the 2nd or 3rd thunderstorm I've seen in the last month, so beggars can't be choosers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 New line of storms developing on the outflow boundary from the MCS, taking aim at all of southern Wisconsin! Glad I woke up early so I don't miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Shelf cloud just north of lake Mendota, Kelvin-Helmholtz billows are apparent along the top of it which is common in density current situations like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Shelf cloud just north of lake Mendota, Kelvin-Helmholtz billows are apparent along the top of it which is common in density current situations like this. doubt it makes it down here but do they look healthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 doubt it makes it down here but do they look healthy? Jim Ramsey thinks they'll make it into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 doubt it makes it down here but do they look healthy? Doesn't looks like they want to coalesce into a true squall line, and they're not anything special honestly (45,000 ft tops), only reason I'm excited is cause of the drought. Dual pol isn't detecting any hail in them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Doesn't looks like they want to coalesce into a true squall line, and they're not anything special honestly (45,000 ft tops), only reason I'm excited is cause of the drought. Dual pol isn't detecting any hail in them. we should probably be using the general thread since there is so little instability to work with but i think most at this point really just want some soaking rain...especially the northern tier of counties in illinois that missed out on all the other rounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 we should probably be using the general thread since there is so little instability to work with but i think most at this point really just want some soaking rain...especially the northern tier of counties in illinois that missed out on all the other rounds. Yeah I agree, looked more impressive than it was right when I woke up. The part of the line approaching Madison is dissipating and we'd be lucky to see a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Yeah I agree, looked more impressive than it was right when I woke up. The part of the line approaching Madison is dissipating and we'd be lucky to see a drop. If anythung, Maybe the outflow can keep the heat down a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Up to 2" of Rain for the Northern half of Macomb county. Much needed in a heavy farming area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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