A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It would be a waste of instability if nothing happens, but then again what's new considering all of June was pretty much warm and dry. Interesting how the NMM moves most of the convection north to south, not sure I buy that. organization will be pretty sketchy and lake breezes complicate things but propogation vectors look awfully SE or SSE to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 yep, looks good for both of us...latest NMM and ARW are very convectively active as well. EDIT: CU field growing in central wisconsin as well as along the lakefront down into NE Illinois EDIT x2: slight bump in pops for my point looks good for both tonight and tomorrow night. already plenty of instability across this area but not much shear for organization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 looks good for both tonight and tomorrow night. love the way it fires the tail end of the line up tomorrow night....totally not buying it though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Heads up for Ontario readers, elements are in place for major severe storm outbreak across southern and central ON tomorrow (Tues 3rd) and this would apply to central, northern MI and upstate NY also. Could be a derecho type event. Will be posting more on this late evening or early morning, heading out for most of the day here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Heads up for Ontario readers, elements are in place for major severe storm outbreak across southern and central ON tomorrow (Tues 3rd) and this would apply to central, northern MI and upstate NY also. Could be a derecho type event. Will be posting more on this late evening or early morning, heading out for most of the day here. Geez, that'd be a kick to the Southern MI crew. Just missed the previous derecho event to the south, and this one might miss to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Got bubbling Cu going up along a boundary from srn WI to NE IL. The environment is characterized by strong-extreme instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 4500J/kg, and explosive 0-3km CAPE exceeding 200J/kg. Sfc vort is very high along the boundary near the lake. Deep layer shear is extremely weak, but with high low-level CAPE and vorticity, the non-supercell tornado parameter is up to 4 in spots. The growing Cu field signals to me that initiation is likely to occur sometime within the next 2-3 hours, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a spinup with any cells that form, along with some severe hail and downbursts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 There are svr warned storms in the St. Louis area with storms firing as far north as Macomb and Lincoln in central IL. Convective temp must certainly have been reached there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Been watching the CU field out the window for a while now...it doesn't look like it's ready to go up anytime soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Been watching the CU field out the window for a while now...it doesn't look like it's ready to go up anytime soon. The Cu in IL are struggling pretty badly right now, but the Cu in WI are showing a little bit of life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Heads up for Ontario readers, elements are in place for major severe storm outbreak across southern and central ON tomorrow (Tues 3rd) and this would apply to central, northern MI and upstate NY also. Could be a derecho type event. Will be posting more on this late evening or early morning, heading out for most of the day here. I have been checking out the models today. Where are you thinking the best areas are for severe wx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The Cu in IL are struggling pretty badly right now, but the Cu in WI are showing a little bit of life. def looking better up there and the HRRR had central/southern IL and WI lightning up first then northern IL this evening. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Got bubbling Cu going up along a boundary from srn WI to NE IL. The environment is characterized by strong-extreme instability, with MLCAPE exceeding 4500J/kg, and explosive 0-3km CAPE exceeding 200J/kg. Sfc vort is very high along the boundary near the lake. Deep layer shear is extremely weak, but with high low-level CAPE and vorticity, the non-supercell tornado parameter is up to 4 in spots. The growing Cu field signals to me that initiation is likely to occur sometime within the next 2-3 hours, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a spinup with any cells that form, along with some severe hail and downbursts. Would you favor initiation in C Wisconsin moving SE/SSE? That's what many of the short term models seem to indicate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 The Cu in IL are struggling pretty badly right now, but the Cu in WI are showing a little bit of life. look like they're about to go pretty soon here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 def looking better up there and the HRRR had central/southern IL and WI lightning up first then northern IL this evening. We'll see. possible we'll see another boundary party on LOTs radar tonight if WI action fires a couple south to interact with the lake breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Was just looking over the NAM and am very surprised. It has some sort of MCS event in southern ontario tomorrow afternoon and evening. I wouldn't want to call it a derecho but its looking rather interesting. Decent amounts of CAPE with MUCAPE of 1000-2500j/kg. 0-500mb shear of ~40kts over SON and 500mb winds out of the WNW at around 40-50kts. Really has me thinking. What do you guys think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 possible we'll see another boundary party on LOTs radar tonight if WI action fires a couple south to interact with the lake breeze That would be neat to watch happen again. My relatives in Highland IN had more damage from that in their back yard than they did from the incipient derecho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Would you favor initiation in C Wisconsin moving SE/SSE? That's what many of the short term models seem to indicate. Yeah it looks that way. Looks like maybe a weak disturbance on WV moving through that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Cells look like they are starting to fire ne of Janesville and up se of Portage WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 18z NAM looks pretty darn sweet around here tomorrow aftrnoon. Talk about perfection for me. edit: 4km NAM Has us at 99*F around noon before the storms begin to pop. edit 2: rebound back to 100*F after falling into the mid-90s as the initial storms blow up east of here early in the afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YHM Supercell Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 18z NAM looks pretty darn sweet around here tomorrow aftrnoon. Talk about perfection for me. Was thinking very similar, for areas of Southern Ontario as well. Very impressive output from the NAM for a damaging MCS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nice development now which has gone svr nw of Appleton and west of Green Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nice development now which will likely soon go svr nw of Appleton and west of Green Bay. Yup the cell is now warned, unfortunately the cells in southern Wisconsin are really struggling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Development up by Appleton should move se and follow the shoreline rather sharply if it goes along the instability axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Development up by Appleton should move se and follow the shoreline rather sharply if it goes along the instability axis. Because tonight's threat involves SE Wisconsin, it probably won't materialize, but I can't say I'm surprised. This time it is lack of shear, next time it will be dry soils, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Because tonight's threat involves SE Wisconsin, it probably won't materialize, but I can't say I'm surprised. This time it is lack of shear, next time it will be dry soils, rinse and repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Video from yesterday. I had to leave the door at the end because of flying debris. Right after I shut off the camera, that big pine tree almost snapped in half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 hi-res, HRRR, RAP all look like they will be too aggressive with convection over IL and se WI...18z NAM appears to be doing quite well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Appleton area cell is pretty sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Watch the lake breeze in WI...cell looks like it might try to ride right down it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Watch the lake breeze in WI...cell looks like it might try to ride right down it That would be sweet! Dewpoints are at 71° up this way. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREEN BAY HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... OUTAGAMIE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST WISCONSIN... * UNTIL 715 PM CDT * AT 608 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF NEW LONDON TO 9 MILES EAST OF LAKE POYGAN...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... APPLETON...BLACK CREEK...MEDINA...HORTONVILLE...STEPHENSVILLE... SHIOCTON...GREENVILLE AND BINGHAMTON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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