aurora Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Small slight risk added for extreme SE Michigan and areas downstream of Lake Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I think we'll see a slight risk for today but don't know if we'll get it on the first outlook. STOUT EML SHOULD PROHIBIT SFC-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT...DESPITE PRESENCE OF MORE SUBSTANTIAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RELATIVE TO POINTS W AND E. HOWEVER...AREAS OF MOISTURE WITHIN AND ABOVE THE LOWEST PORTION OF THE EML MAY YIELD SCTD AREAS/SHORT LINES OF ACCAS/HIGH-BASED STORMS THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF NEB/SD UPR IMPULSE. ANY SUSTAINED STORMS THAT DO FORM IN THIS ENVIRONMENT COULD PRODUCE SVR HAIL/LOCALLY DMGG WIND GIVEN STEEP MID LVL LAPSE RATES. BUT THE LIKELIHOOD FOR SUSTAINED STORMS APPEARS TOO LOW ATTM TO WARRANT UPGRADE TO CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 The 12z HRRR manages to pop a decent cell across northern Cook but it's really hard to find models showing anything beyond super isolated action in the region....lift simply too anemic as our mid levels torch. RAP is totally dry and really kills off instability with the lake front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 There actually is a fairly decent shortwave, or a trigger, moving through MN/IA/WI right now. The question is will it be enough to break through the 16-17*C temps at 700mb? everything else, from the shear to the dynamics to the moisture and instability is A-OK. If we can get the temps at 700mb just to cool a degree or two, the magic numbers needed to get things popping will be 102*F/69*F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 NMM throws a bone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 It's never good when the conv temp is too high to calculate on the SPC sounding interface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 from LOT AXIS OF INSTABILITY PROGGED TO BE BETWEEN THE LEAD TROUGH AND THE COOL FRONT WHERE DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S AND LOWER 70S TO BE POOLED. THIS AXIS TO RUN W-E ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES AT 18Z AND THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES AT 00Z. SHORT WAVE SEEN IN WATER VAPOR SAT LOOP WAS MOVING TO THE FAR W END OF THE MN-IA BORDER AT 1345Z. MODELS GENERALLY SHOW THIS DISTURBANCE TRACKING E ALONG THE MN-IA BORDER THROUGH MID DAY THEN TURN ESE ACROSS SW WI AND N CENTRAL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEST CHANCE FOR TS DEVELOPMENT WILL BE WHERE THE POOLED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS IN PLACE AND WHERE THE COOLER MID LEVEL AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH REMOVES THE CAP BASED AT AROUND 825HPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 FWIW LOT bumped pops a little across the north....vort will have prettty much perfect timing along with great instability/moisture....so close but so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 You can see the front on Milwaukee's radar nicely pushing towards the state line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 Small orphan anvil with virga just to my north...Associated with the scattered ACCAS moving through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Small orphan anvil with virga just to my north...Associated with the scattered ACCAS moving through. base on that thing has to be like a million miles up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 base on that thing has to be like a million miles up They're way up there...easily above 1kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 They're way up there...easily above 1kft. Can anything that high up produce any precipitation that reaches the ground? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 FWIW LOT bumped pops a little across the north....vort will have prettty much perfect timing along with great instability/moisture....so close but so far. Bump pops down here too...it's a lot closer than you think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Is that just ground clutter in WI or is it a thunderstorm? http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/wisconsin/weather-radar?play=true Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 convergence and surface frontogensis def on the increase along the western shore of the lake now...we'll see if it's any help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 convergence and surface frontogensis def on the increase along the western shore of the lake now...we'll see if it's any help More agitated Cu showing up along the frontal zone. It's only 1817 UTC...really don't think we get out of this afternoon w/o the cap breaking somewhere in WI/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 More agitated Cu showing up along the frontal zone. It's only 1817 UTC...really don't think we get out of this afternoon w/o the cap breaking somewhere in WI/IL. I'd agree with you, pretty easy to see whats going on along the front looping vis sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 sorry to be annoying but when you say cap breaking you're talking about surface/near surface based convection? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 sorry to be annoying but when you say cap breaking you're talking about surface/near surface based convection? I'm talking severe convection...so yes essentially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I'm talking severe convection...so yes essentially. Thanks, it's from DVN, so different situation but I found this odd wording nonetheless BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING...THERE IS NO SUCH THING AS A CAP. THE QUESTION NOW IS WHAT WILL OCCUR LATER THIS AFTERNOON. NONLINEAR PROCESSES WILL BE DOMINATING THE SENSIBLE WX. THE ONE THING THAT IS KNOWN IS THAT ANY CONVECTION THAT OCCURS THIS AFTERNOON WILL LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND NOT SURFACE BASED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 HRRR now goes off along I80 south of the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 HRRR now goes off along I80 south of the city Wow it sure does. Who in the world knows what's gonna happen. So many potential scenarios lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Wow it sure does. Who in the world knows what's gonna happen. So many potential scenarios lol.. Tony and Thundersnow know what they're doing and we're seeing an upward trend in action on the RAP as well...so my confidence is inching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Tony and Thundersnow know what they're doing and we're seeing and upward trend in action on the RAP as well...so my confidence is inching up. yea these kinds of days are almost impossible to predict. you just have to follow mesoscale trends and go from there. i wanna see what some of the afd's are saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 Sitting under H7 temps of 16 deg C isn't helping but vis sat is looking better with cu along the front where the moisture is pooling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 window for those of us up north will be closing shortly...HRRR still looks good for the I80 crowd into NW IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 HRRR is definitely impressive for the S metro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 HRRR is definitely impressive for the S metro... Would you share it? Im interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 CU field is starting to push into the city now but is still just festering under the mid level torch...at this point, if anything goes up from that line it will be to my south. LOT still talks about best shot along and just behind the front. 18z NAM throws a bone with another fantasy MCS tomorrow night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.