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June 28-July 8th Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

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Looks like spc has been playing catchup slowly shifting the slight risk area further north and east*. If that cluster in northern IN holds or builds, Parts of Ohio are going to get rocked again. We still have 138k without power in Franklin county alone.

* Just saw this from PIT AFD: HPC HAS BEEN DIAGNOSING THE SURFACE FRONTAL

BOUNDARY WELL SOUTH OF THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR...HOWEVER THE

FIELDS JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE SUGGEST THE BEST VERTICALLY COHERENT

GRADIENT SITS WELL NORTH OF THEIR ANALYSIS.

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balls in the water

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

341 PM CDT SUN JUL 01 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON

.DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.

..REMARKS..

0100 PM MARINE HAIL 2 E SOUTH CHICAGO 41.74N 87.51W

07/01/2012 E1.75 INCH LMZ743 IN SHIP

GOLF BALL HAIL REPORTED BY TUG BOAT OFF CALUMET HARBOR. TIME ESTIMATED.

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Smaller, isolated cells severe warned in southeast MO, southern IL and IN. Looks like they're relatively slow movers, which will be good for some areas down there that are in the deepest drought...though not exactly widespread. Beggars can't be...

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

610 PM EDT SUN JUL 1 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WESTERN ERIE COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL OHIO...

EASTERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

NORTHEASTERN SANDUSKY COUNTY IN NORTHWEST OHIO...

* UNTIL 700 PM EDT

* AT 609 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS

STORM WAS LOCATED NORTH OF PORT CLINTON...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 40

MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...

PORT CLINTON...SANDUSKY...CASTALIA...MARBLEHEAD...BAY VIEW...

SANDUSKY SOUTH AND FAIRVIEW LANES.

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Just coming off a 3.5-hour power failure. We have city-operated public electric and water in Geneva, but a ComEd feeder line came down about 21z after being damaged earlier, putting over half the town in the dark. As expected, the response time was slow.

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Well somehow this second system didn't knock out my power either. Really intense wind with the gust front with horizontal dust and leaves. Unfortunately, several of my family members have lost power for a second time because of this. My grandparents just got their power back this morning and the tree laying across their driveway had finally been cut up and hauled away. They lost power again this evening and now have more trees down. Heading up there tomorrow morning to help out. Getting a bit tired of this.

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I was on Paint Creek Lake this afternoon with family out boating. Most of the storm cells were to the north so I didn`t think much of it. I recognized the shelf clouds coming in a little later, glanced at pykl3 on my phone and saw the faint line out ahead of the approaching cells. I knew we were had... shelf over took us and the ensuing wind ramped up, wasn`t too bad as we made our way across the lake, but we did spot some concerning rotation and the start of a funnel while about a half mile from the docks. That gets the ole ticker going. Luckily it fell apart fairly quickly and we got back in... Had a few big limbs down on the roads out of the park, but nothing major. It was beautiful watching the system roll in out on the lake haha

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Looks like a pretty active day on tap for eastern IL points east through Indiana and Ohio.

Things remain pretty muddled further west out over Iowa. Kind of surprised SPC left Iowa in the slight. Lots of surface cape out in Iowa, and there are some remnant boundaries. However, effective bulk shear values are meager to say the least. Mid-level winds are pretty weak. Anything that fires out there will have a hard time getting organized, but I guess we'll see.

Unfortunately my pessimism earlier was correct. Lots of surface instability but really nothing to kick things off. The storms that fired over southern Minnesota/northern Iowa failed to get organized in such a crappy shear environment. Surface winds were south-southeasterly, with H5 winds of 20-30kts from the northwest. As soon as the updrafts went up they rained right down onto the inflow region and died.

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Starting today, areas north of I88 will be in play...especially up into central wisconsin into michigan...some of the high res guidance goes nuts up there later. I could really go for one of those early morning MCS tails that builds down the western lake shore from Wisconsin....been a while. New day 1 hints at a possible hard SE turn later tonight.

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HRRR looks sweet for SE wisconsin

yep, looks good for both of us...latest NMM and ARW are very convectively active as well.

EDIT: CU field growing in central wisconsin as well as along the lakefront down into NE Illinois

EDIT x2: slight bump in pops for my point

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yep, looks good for both of us...latest NMM and ARW are very convectively active as well.

EDIT: CU field growing in central wisconsin as well as along the lakefront down into NE Illinois

EDIT x2: slight bump in pops for my point

It would be a waste of instability if nothing happens, but then again what's new considering all of June was pretty much warm and dry. Interesting how the NMM moves most of the convection north to south, not sure I buy that.

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