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June 28-July 8th Severe Potential


Chicago Storm

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52mph wind gust reported earlier in Thundersnow12ville (Batavia). Interesting how quickly this thing transitioned from elevated stuff to a ground hugging downburst machine.

the warm front convection propped up by the llj over southern iowa lasted just long enough to send a an outflow boundary north into some seriously unstable air lurking to the north...kind of weird.

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the warm front convection propped up by the llj over southern iowa lasted just long enough to send a an outflow boundary north into some seriously unstable air lurking to the north...kind of weird.

Earlier SPC meso discussion even mentioned the possibility of gravity wave movement.

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Sounds like the Elmhurst got hit pretty good.

Out in the Fox Valley as well.

1218 PM TSTM WND GST ST. CHARLES 41.92N 88.30W

07/01/2012 E70.00 MPH KANE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

ALSO PEA SIZE HAIL

1238 PM TSTM WND GST ELMHURST 41.90N 87.94W

07/01/2012 E80.00 MPH DUPAGE IL TRAINED SPOTTER

LARGE TREES DOWN

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Quite a ways away but I notice there's some new convection popping way upstream in southwest Minnesota. Huge surface cape over Iowa.

i was watching the same thing...pretty sure that will be the next round...track looks to run through all the same areas.

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Southern Minnesota is the area I always keep an eye on for some nicely developed nocturnal MCSs for northern Illinois. Given the favorable conditions downstream (or conditions ripe for "recharging"), I'd say that it's definitely something on which to keep an eye.

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i was watching the same thing...pretty sure that will be the next round...track looks to run through all the same areas.

Hopefully some of that will make it further north. Don't want the high winds though! Outflow cooled it off to around 80°.

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Southern Minnesota is the area I always keep an eye on for some nicely developed nocturnal MCSs for northern Illinois. Given the favorable conditions downstream (or conditions ripe for "recharging"), I'd say that it's definitely something on which to keep an eye.

quite a few case examples off quality overnight MCSs from that source region...getting things sufficiently organized seems like the major hurdle.

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Reviewing the KLOT radar data, it seems likely that the extreme downburst in DuPage County was at least partly modulated by the lake breeze boundary. The first image shows the lake breeze very clearly, with an outflow boundary from dying cells along with the intensifying cells right behind the boundary. The northern-most storm was the one that would produce the problems.

post-97-0-31383400-1341168839_thumb.png

A few minutes later, you can see the northern cell has become quite intense, with a major precip core driving the wet downburst. Once again, you can see the lake breeze and how this storm is basically riding it at this time.

post-97-0-18402500-1341168867_thumb.png

The BV image coincident with the previous BR image shows the divergent signature of the downburst very well. Note that with the propagation of the cell being from W to E, you don't see very high velocity values from KLOT. But the major divergence is a dead giveaway to major wind damage potential.

post-97-0-86715800-1341168897_thumb.png

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Quite a ways away but I notice there's some new convection popping way upstream in southwest Minnesota. Huge surface cape over Iowa.

Hoping we get something up here along the northern tier of counties. We got out of breakfast in time to see the outflow boundary from the latest round rushing overhead to the north - I'm not too dismal about missing the severe action - the societal effects seems to have been pretty ridiculous the last few days however the lack of rain even in just the very local area that I am aware of (i.e. McHenry County) continues to be troubling. Talked with Farm Bureau manager up here last week who said at least an inch a week would get things back on track here. This being the severe thread, will be interesting to see how the airmass recovers this afternoon.

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I wonder whether the ASOS at KDPA suffered some damage from the storms as it appears to be out of operation ATTM.

Check this page for trouble tickets at ASOS sites

http://www3.amss.nws.noaa.gov/amsstt.nsf/wFramesetTickets?OpenFrameSet

Right now, that site isn't listed as having an issue, but will likely show up since it has the $ maintenance indicator in the metars.

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Big time towers on north side of ongoing storms. Probably in extreme sw MI. Almost up to anvil height of others.

Svr storm warning issued for Cass and St. Joe Counties in MI from those towers which are just north of my location. Have had some moderate outflow gusts here from them but should pass north of me. I think I'm going to split the difference between these storm complexes this round and still be left high and dry here in Dunlap.

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