July Warm Up On Tap For NYC Metro From June Temperatures

[bluewave]

This late spring drought pattern and June heat pattern are aligning in a similar manner to the last two years.

The drought conditions this May were anchored over the Rockies into the central portions of the nation.

We have been seeing record breaking heat building over Colorado and the High Plains so far this June.

Last year the June heat was focused over the Southern Plains where the late spring drought conditions

were focused.

May 2010 saw the dry conditions focused further to the east followed by the warmest June temperatures

over the same area.

The July pattern during 2010 and 2011 featured an expansion of the heat further to the north and east

from where it was located during June. I think that this is signaling that the July heat this year will

expand further to the east than has been the focus during June. So relative to the means and actual

temperatures, the East should see a warmer pattern in July than we have just experienced this June.

We may end up with a more expansive heat ridge centered over the Rockies and Plains but building

more frequently eastward than we saw in June.

[blizzardof09]

great writeup as usual bluewave....i agree on this forecast as well

[bluewave]

great writeup as usual bluewave....i agree on this forecast as well

Thanks. We also saw a similar pattern in 2006 though this June the heat is more intense.

This is a -PDO and the drought is centered a little further east over the center of the

nation than that year. But the June heat also expanded eastward during July to cover

much of the nation.

[JBG]

great writeup as usual bluewave....i agree on this forecast as well

Thanks. We also saw a similar pattern in 2006 though this June the heat is more intense.

This is a -PDO and the drought is centered a little further east over the center of the

nation than that year. But the June heat also expanded eastward during July to cover

much of the nation.

Both of your lips to G-d's ears. We don't need another 2009.

[bluewave]

Both of your lips to G-d's ears. We don't need another 2009.

January to June 2009 was a cool pattern over North America compared to the record

warmth of this year.

[Isotherm]

For now I still like my summer idea of a normal to slightly cooler than normal July in the Northeast, while essentially the rest of the country bakes. Many analogs and MJO progression support a normal/coolish zone near the East Coast. Like June I think we'll see surges of big heat, but the mean troughiness should hang around the NE US IMO.

[easternsnowman]

For now I still like my summer idea of a normal to slightly cooler than normal July in the Northeast, while essentially the rest of the country bakes. Many analogs and MJO progression support a normal/coolish zone near the East Coast. Like June I think we'll see surges of big heat, but the mean troughiness should hang around the NE US IMO.

Some analogs agree with my thinking that august will be the cooler of the 2 months with july slightly above and august slightly below normal.