RodneyS Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 DCA: 102 RIC: 103 BWI: 101 IAD: 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 28, 2012 Author Share Posted June 28, 2012 DCA: 101 RIC: 105 BWI: 102 IAD: 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 DCA: 99 RIC: 101 BWI: 100 IAD: 98 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 DCA - 102 IAD - 100 RIC - 104 BWI - 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 DCA: 102 RIC: 104 BWI: 103 IAD: 99 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 RIC's record high for all time is 107 set back on August 6, 1918. Not that 109 is impossible with this air mass... just saying that you're going for the all-time record by 2 in June. I had a peek in the Weather Almanac which is falling apart in my office, and noticed that too. Somewhat surprising to me that such a low elevation site well inland has never been higher than 107 in all the big heat waves since 1918 but I suppose it tends to be more humid, still, to get through 1936 without breaking 106 is odd when you consider it was 108 in Winnipeg that year. I guess a lot of major heat waves overshoot the MA and max out in the northeast but this one looks different. My numbers are dependent on an ideal (probably the wrong word if you're in the region) combination of high thickness advection, downsloping component, and the ESE track of what appears to be a wedge of superheated air already well into the Midwest today. In other words, I figured it would max out under cloudless skies for RIC probably on Saturday which looks a bit hotter than the other two days. As to it being June, that's also a concern for such a high number but after all it is June 30th on Saturday and the 1911 heat wave maxed out for many locations on similar dates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I had a peek in the Weather Almanac which is falling apart in my office, and noticed that too. Somewhat surprising to me that such a low elevation site well inland has never been higher than 107 in all the big heat waves since 1918 but I suppose it tends to be more humid, still, to get through 1936 without breaking 106 is odd when you consider it was 108 in Winnipeg that year. I guess a lot of major heat waves overshoot the MA and max out in the northeast but this one looks different. My numbers are dependent on an ideal (probably the wrong word if you're in the region) combination of high thickness advection, downsloping component, and the ESE track of what appears to be a wedge of superheated air already well into the Midwest today. In other words, I figured it would max out under cloudless skies for RIC probably on Saturday which looks a bit hotter than the other two days. As to it being June, that's also a concern for such a high number but after all it is June 30th on Saturday and the 1911 heat wave maxed out for many locations on similar dates. Yeah, normally the core of the mid-level ridge that develops in the Plains propagates northeastwards into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, but this time around the cold front swinging down through the northeastern US will shunt the ridge into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A good setup for MCSes if they can get far enough south to reach into MD/DC, though I think they'll more likely stay mostly up in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I thought it might be interesting to create a list of predictions, high to low, for each location. Ties are listed in order of submission. * see below for full name ** these three entries may not count for full or any points, late per post 6. DCA 104 .. 103 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 102 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 101 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan 100 .. astarck 099 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen 098 .. WinterWxluvr RIC 109 .. Roger Smith 108 .. 107 .. 106 .. 105 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 104 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 103 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS 102 .. UIWWildthing, astarck 101 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen 100 .. WinterWxluvr BWI 104 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith 103 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 102 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan 101 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 100 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen 099 .. needbiggerboat 098 .. 097 .. 096 .. WinterWxluvr IAD 105 .. southmdwatcher 104 .. 103 .. Ellinwood, 102 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** 101 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie** 100 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat 099 .. wxmeddler 098 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen 097 .. WinterWxluvr __________________________ * full username is FiveAlarmPhotography check my table against your entries, I noticed where people used different order of stations so I hope there are no errors in the table (yet ) Note -- post #6 from contest organizer stated deadline noon Thursday. I have added three later entries (see below) with ** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 RIC- 104 DCA- 102 IAD- 101 BWI- 103 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 28, 2012 Share Posted June 28, 2012 I will win Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I think I will be coolest. Perhaps by 40 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I will win nothing I agree with you on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 DCA: 103 RIC: 105 BWI: 101 IAD: 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 DCA: 103°F RIC: 105°F BWI: 101°F IAD: 101°F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 Crap missed out on this one. That will teach me to rest after a vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I don't know why I didn't put DCA at 103 if I thought IAD was going to make it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 29, 2012 Share Posted June 29, 2012 I don't know why I didn't put DCA at 103 if I thought IAD was going to make it... cuz you sir are a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 30, 2012 Share Posted June 30, 2012 Reported highs on Friday 104 DCA, 103 BWI and RIC, 102 IAD Seems unlikely these will be broken on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I believe Midlo won, cumulatively being off by 2, as I'm sure we aren't doing +/-. Some including myself close behind at a difference of 4 if it were a contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well since you asked and the contest organizer may be in advanced heat stress, here are the raw scores in terms of cumulative error, read off the table posted earlier. DCA 104 1 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 3 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan 4 .. astarck 5 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen 6 .. WinterWxluvr RIC 103 6 .. Roger Smith 2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 1 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 0 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS 1 .. UIWWildthing, astarck 2 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen 3 .. WinterWxluvr BWI 103 1 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith 0 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 1 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan 2 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 3 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen 4 .. needbiggerboat 7 .. WinterWxluvr IAD 102 3 .. southmdwatcher 1 .. Ellinwood, 0 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** 1 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie** 2 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat 3 .. wxmeddler 4 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen 5 .. WinterWxluvr --------- Cumulative scores (entered all four) (**late) 2 .. mattieg 3 .. Midlo Snow Maker 4 .. FiveAlarmPhotography, MN Transplant, ddweatherman** 5 .. Ellinwood, Aviationdave** 6 .. wxmeddler, RodneyS, wxjunkie** 7 .. mapgirl, UTWWildthing, donsutherland1 8 .. snowfan, noreasticane, Roger Smith, southmdwatcher 9 .. needbiggerboat, H2O 10 . astarck 14 . NE BaltiZen 21 . WinterWxluvr Mattie G nailed three out of four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Well since you asked and the contest organizer may be in advanced heat stress, here are the raw scores in terms of cumulative error, read off the table posted earlier. DCA 104 1 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 3 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan 4 .. astarck 5 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen 6 .. WinterWxluvr RIC 103 6 .. Roger Smith 2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 1 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 0 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS 1 .. UIWWildthing, astarck 2 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen 3 .. WinterWxluvr BWI 103 1 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith 0 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman** 1 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan 2 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie ** 3 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen 4 .. needbiggerboat 7 .. WinterWxluvr IAD 102 3 .. southmdwatcher 1 .. Ellinwood, 0 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** 1 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie** 2 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat 3 .. wxmeddler 4 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen 5 .. WinterWxluvr --------- Cumulative scores (entered all four) (**late) 2 .. mattieg 3 .. Midlo Snow Maker 4 .. FiveAlarmPhotography, MN Transplant, ddweatherman** 5 .. Ellinwood, Aviationdave** 6 .. wxmeddler, RodneyS, wxjunkie** 7 .. mapgirl, UTWWildthing, donsutherland1 8 .. snowfan, noreasticane, Roger Smith, southmdwatcher 9 .. needbiggerboat, H2O 10 . astarck 14 . NE BaltiZen 21 . WinterWxluvr Mattie G nailed three out of four. Third place, good showing. Nice work mattie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 The contest organizer hasn't ruled on the penalties for late entries yet, so I wouldn't jump the gun there on positions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 First time I don't embarass myself in one of these contests...and I actually win! Mattie G nailed three out of four. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Dang. DCA was my killer. Stupid river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 Can't win them all, DCA killed me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I did well! Friday killed me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 3, 2012 Share Posted July 3, 2012 I could have been a player, if RIC was in SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted July 4, 2012 Share Posted July 4, 2012 I could have been a player, if RIC was in SC. Having lived here for 7 years now, it's rare that RIC is much warmer than DCA, especially at the extreme high end. In the winter, it's not unusual for DC to be a few degrees cooler than RIC in certain rain/snow situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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