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How hot will it get Fri - Sun?


snowfan

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RIC's record high for all time is 107 set back on August 6, 1918. Not that 109 is impossible with this air mass... just saying that you're going for the all-time record by 2 in June.

I had a peek in the Weather Almanac which is falling apart in my office, and noticed that too. Somewhat surprising to me that such a low elevation site well inland has never been higher than 107 in all the big heat waves since 1918 but I suppose it tends to be more humid, still, to get through 1936 without breaking 106 is odd when you consider it was 108 in Winnipeg that year. I guess a lot of major heat waves overshoot the MA and max out in the northeast but this one looks different.

My numbers are dependent on an ideal (probably the wrong word if you're in the region) combination of high thickness advection, downsloping component, and the ESE track of what appears to be a wedge of superheated air already well into the Midwest today. In other words, I figured it would max out under cloudless skies for RIC probably on Saturday which looks a bit hotter than the other two days. As to it being June, that's also a concern for such a high number but after all it is June 30th on Saturday and the 1911 heat wave maxed out for many locations on similar dates.

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I had a peek in the Weather Almanac which is falling apart in my office, and noticed that too. Somewhat surprising to me that such a low elevation site well inland has never been higher than 107 in all the big heat waves since 1918 but I suppose it tends to be more humid, still, to get through 1936 without breaking 106 is odd when you consider it was 108 in Winnipeg that year. I guess a lot of major heat waves overshoot the MA and max out in the northeast but this one looks different.

My numbers are dependent on an ideal (probably the wrong word if you're in the region) combination of high thickness advection, downsloping component, and the ESE track of what appears to be a wedge of superheated air already well into the Midwest today. In other words, I figured it would max out under cloudless skies for RIC probably on Saturday which looks a bit hotter than the other two days. As to it being June, that's also a concern for such a high number but after all it is June 30th on Saturday and the 1911 heat wave maxed out for many locations on similar dates.

Yeah, normally the core of the mid-level ridge that develops in the Plains propagates northeastwards into the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast, but this time around the cold front swinging down through the northeastern US will shunt the ridge into the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast. A good setup for MCSes if they can get far enough south to reach into MD/DC, though I think they'll more likely stay mostly up in PA.

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I thought it might be interesting to create a list of predictions, high to low, for each location. Ties are listed in order of submission.

* see below for full name

** these three entries may not count for full or any points, late per post 6.

DCA

104 ..

103 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

102 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

101 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan

100 .. astarck

099 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen

098 .. WinterWxluvr

RIC

109 .. Roger Smith

108 ..

107 ..

106 ..

105 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

104 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

103 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS

102 .. UIWWildthing, astarck

101 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen

100 .. WinterWxluvr

BWI

104 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith

103 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

102 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan

101 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

100 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen

099 .. needbiggerboat

098 ..

097 ..

096 .. WinterWxluvr

IAD

105 .. southmdwatcher

104 ..

103 .. Ellinwood,

102 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave**

101 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie**

100 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat

099 .. wxmeddler

098 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen

097 .. WinterWxluvr

__________________________

* full username is FiveAlarmPhotography

check my table against your entries, I noticed where people used different order of stations so I hope there are no errors in the table (yet :) )

Note -- post #6 from contest organizer stated deadline noon Thursday. I have added three later entries (see below) with **

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Well since you asked and the contest organizer may be in advanced heat stress, here are the raw scores in terms of cumulative error, read off the table posted earlier.

DCA 104

1 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

3 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan

4 .. astarck

5 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen

6 .. WinterWxluvr

RIC 103

6 .. Roger Smith

2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

1 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

0 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS

1 .. UIWWildthing, astarck

2 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen

3 .. WinterWxluvr

BWI 103

1 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith

0 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

1 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan

2 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

3 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen

4 .. needbiggerboat

7 .. WinterWxluvr

IAD 102

3 .. southmdwatcher

1 .. Ellinwood,

0 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave**

1 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie**

2 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat

3 .. wxmeddler

4 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen

5 .. WinterWxluvr

---------

Cumulative scores (entered all four) (**late)

2 .. mattieg

3 .. Midlo Snow Maker

4 .. FiveAlarmPhotography, MN Transplant, ddweatherman**

5 .. Ellinwood, Aviationdave**

6 .. wxmeddler, RodneyS, wxjunkie**

7 .. mapgirl, UTWWildthing, donsutherland1

8 .. snowfan, noreasticane, Roger Smith, southmdwatcher

9 .. needbiggerboat, H2O

10 . astarck

14 . NE BaltiZen

21 . WinterWxluvr

Mattie G nailed three out of four.

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Well since you asked and the contest organizer may be in advanced heat stress, here are the raw scores in terms of cumulative error, read off the table posted earlier.

DCA 104

1 .. Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, mattie g, donsutherland1, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

3 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, Noreasticane, mapgirl, snowfan

4 .. astarck

5 .. H2O, Ian, NE BaltiZen

6 .. WinterWxluvr

RIC 103

6 .. Roger Smith

2 .. southmdwatcher, Ellinwood, Midlo Snow Maker, snowfan, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

1 .. donsutherland1, mapgirl, needbiggerboat, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

0 .. H20, MN Transplant, mattie g, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS

1 .. UIWWildthing, astarck

2 .. Noreasticane, NE BaltiZen

3 .. WinterWxluvr

BWI 103

1 .. southmdwatcher, Roger Smith

0 .. Ellinwood, mattie g, Midlo Snow Maker, FiveAlarmPhoto*, wxmeddler, ddweatherman**

1 .. UIWWildthing, MN Transplant, mapgirl, astarck, snowfan

2 .. Noreasticane, RodneyS, Aviationdave** wxjunkie **

3 .. H20, donsutherland1, NE BaltiZen

4 .. needbiggerboat

7 .. WinterWxluvr

IAD 102

3 .. southmdwatcher

1 .. Ellinwood,

0 .. MN Transplant, mattie g, Roger Smith, Midlo Snow Maker, Aviationdave**

1 .. H20, donsutherland1, ddweatherman**, wxjunkie**

2 .. UIWWildthing, Noreasticane, mapgirl, FiveAlarmPhoto*, RodneyS, snowfan, needbiggerboat

3 .. wxmeddler

4 .. astarck, NE BaltiZen

5 .. WinterWxluvr

---------

Cumulative scores (entered all four) (**late)

2 .. mattieg

3 .. Midlo Snow Maker

4 .. FiveAlarmPhotography, MN Transplant, ddweatherman**

5 .. Ellinwood, Aviationdave**

6 .. wxmeddler, RodneyS, wxjunkie**

7 .. mapgirl, UTWWildthing, donsutherland1

8 .. snowfan, noreasticane, Roger Smith, southmdwatcher

9 .. needbiggerboat, H2O

10 . astarck

14 . NE BaltiZen

21 . WinterWxluvr

Mattie G nailed three out of four.

Third place, good showing. Nice work mattie!

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