Ginx snewx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 pretty good last several days really for this area...pathetic but true. between sat, yesterday and now today. i love the weak wind field, cold pool set-ups. so much more conducive for MBY. I had a great view on 395 looking East as those towers grew heading your way. Gusty wind day today, very windexy. Love me some cold ULLS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 haha... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Maybe he won't admit it on here but ryan was pretty jacked at dinner about Friday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Maybe he won't admit it on here but ryan was pretty jacked at dinner about Friday! The whole weekend offers ocnl sev chances if things are timed right. Sunday could be a good one too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Maybe he won't admit it on here but ryan was pretty jacked at dinner about Friday! Lol there's definitely potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The whole weekend offers ocnl sev chances if things are timed right. Sunday could be a good one too. I like that there is high end potential. Odds are we see nothing but there's a chance for really good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I like that there is high end potential. Odds are we see nothing but there's a chance for really good stuff. Yeah I agree, especially if we can get s/w timing in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I am completely devastated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I am completely devastated. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 NAM looks good, but might be capped Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 NAM looks good, but might be capped Friday. Still, that's a nice profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 00z NAM is really impressive in terms of setup. Mid levels are very dry and NAM is not showing much in the way of QPF, but that looks pretty dam good if we even get something to form. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 gfs is frustrating, okay pattern for storms though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 gfs is frustrating, okay pattern for storms though. Pattern is there, but it will come down to s/w timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 There is a case of a completely justified tornado warning, that would go down in the records as a false alarm, despite a clearly tornadic storm. And completely forgot that the picture for my avatar is the 2008 Narragansett Bay tornado. And that storm later put down another tornado I think? It was one of like three waterspout events that year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Pattern is there, but it will come down to s/w timing. gfs looks a little like... 8/2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Looks like Friday and Monday now Models slowed fropa timing over the weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Friday looks kind of weird with timing. Not sure how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Friday looks kind of weird with timing. Not sure how it plays out. Might be a late show,if there is one at all. I'm sure we'll see things flop around back and forth like a little winky to and fro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Might be a late show,if there is one at all. I'm sure we'll see things flop around back and forth like a little winky to and fro Yeah, but Friday may be just isolated stuff. Not really feeling it quite yet, even though the parameters are good. But, we'll see if it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah, but Friday may be just isolated stuff. Not really feeling it quite yet, even though the parameters are good. But, we'll see if it changes. Same here. While the parameters are explosive for sure, this actually is not a classic "EML-New England" setup given the 700mb anomalies. However, the heat is so expansive that it may not matter anyway. For a time, the setup almost says derecho to me from the Midwest to Mid Atlantic but the flow becomes less anticyclonic with time (ultimately ending the potential). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Same here. While the parameters are explosive for sure, this actually is not a classic "EML-New England" setup given the 700mb anomalies. However, the heat is so expansive that it may not matter anyway. For a time, the setup almost says derecho to me from the Midwest to Mid Atlantic but the flow becomes less anticyclonic with time (ultimately ending the potential). Yeah it did have that look, agreed. It's still a decent surface trough moving in...it may even favor SE areas of SNE where convergence is better there. But we'll see as we get closer because if convection does pop..it could be pretty strong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 Yeah it did have that look, agreed. It's still a decent surface trough moving in...it may even favor SE areas of SNE where convergence is better there. But we'll see as we get closer because if convection does pop..it could be pretty strong. There also could be something dropping south of us on Thursday Night / Friday AM. It probably won't have much of an effect up your way but it will be interesting to see if 1) it's severe and 2) what it does to anything down the road (remnant boundaries, stability). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted June 27, 2012 Author Share Posted June 27, 2012 There also could be something dropping south of us on Thursday Night / Friday AM. It probably won't have much of an effect up your way but it will be interesting to see if 1) it's severe and 2) what it does to anything down the road (remnant boundaries, stability). the occasional model run, and SPC's day 2 t-storm outlook would imply that a remnant MCS is on our doorstep 12z Friday. I hope we can get something good with the EML in place Friday, but a ton of question marks remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 the occasional model run, and SPC's day 2 t-storm outlook would imply that a remnant MCS is on our doorstep 12z Friday. I hope we can get something good with the EML in place Friday, but a ton of question marks remain. This isn't an objective thought but... I am not liking the trends this morning for severe on Friday (doesn't mean it can't change...plenty of time). The s/w timing for when it crosses the Northeast is late Thursday Night into Friday Midday. The stability parameters are not quite the same as they were Monday AM. If this times poorly, it could also ruin anything later in the day. I still like the Midwest into Mid Atlantic for a possible late day MCS Friday (derecho is questionable). Isolated redevelopment is possible Friday afternoon in New England where instability is more robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The timing for Friday really doesn't excite me. Everything that I have looked at suggest that our chances of seeing precip are better in the morning than they are in the afternoon. The SREF barely gives us a chance of precip. The GEFS has a higher probability in the morning than it does in the afternoon. The CMCE doesn't even give us a chance of precip. Yes all of the indicies may be in place, but I'm not excited for anything happening. I like Sunday better. Which sucks for me because I have Friday off and will probably be working Sunday. I am still rooting for something exciting to happen though....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 The timing for Friday really doesn't excite me. Everything that I have looked at suggest that our chances of seeing precip are better in the morning than they are in the afternoon. The SREF barely gives us a chance of precip. The GEFS has a higher probability in the morning than it does in the afternoon. The CMCE doesn't even give us a chance of precip. Yes all of the indicies may be in place, but I'm not excited for anything happening. I like Sunday better. Which sucks for me because I have Friday off and will probably be working Sunday. I am still rooting for something exciting to happen though....... I agree with this, especially about the afternoon having little organization in the wake of the earlier disturbance. The CINH is going to be quite strong as this heat advances into the area. Things still have time to improve but the trends haven't been good. As far as Sunday, I am cautiously optimistic but I have already noticed the data trending further north and slower. Perhaps this will be more of a New England threat after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 I agree with this, especially about the afternoon having little organization in the wake of the earlier disturbance. The CINH is going to be quite strong as this heat advances into the area. Things still have time to improve but the trends haven't been good. As far as Sunday, I am cautiously optimistic but I have already noticed the data trending further north and slower. Perhaps this will be more of a New England threat after all. "Cautiously Optimistic" is the perfect way to describe New England severe weather isn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 "Cautiously Optimistic" is the perfect way to describe New England severe weather isn't it? LOL ...although... Maybe a perfect way to describe New England severe potential is "cautiously pessimistic" like we're being for Friday, e.g. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 27, 2012 Share Posted June 27, 2012 12Z NAM looked a little better. There is a weak triple point across SNE with that s/w coming through albeit perhaps not the best timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.