HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Nice job the other day entertaining the derecho idea down near the MA. Thanks. That was one of the most impressive EML's I've ever seen punch eastward. It was just the overall pattern that supported it to be south and it was a depressing sight for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Definitely. I am a severe weather weenie for sure and a fan of summertime weather. I am sure there will come another opportunity for a derecho in a summer like this one but it may favor areas further and further west as the summer presses on and the anticyclone center shifts west. This weekend looks a bit more interesting for the northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic as the cold front moves in the from the northwest hitting a very warm airmass. I am concerned that the Canadian trough is too weak to promote good mid-level height falls/shear/lift ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 As for Wednesday, the 03z SREF looks a bit more meh than the last few runs. Small probs of 30+ kt of shear and the probs of 2000 MLCAPE are kept to the south and west of SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 As for Wednesday, the 03z SREF looks a bit more meh than the last few runs. Small probs of 30+ kt of shear and the probs of 2000 MLCAPE are kept to the south and west of SNE. Yeah I saw that too. Might also be a function of that morning deal moving SE from NNE and perhaps clouds screwing things up. As usual, lots of things that can go wrong, but some of the pieces of the puzzle are really nice to look at. You don't see SPC doing day 3 slight risks in SNE often. I think on June 1 2011, they highlighted us 4 days out....potential severe that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted July 2, 2012 Author Share Posted July 2, 2012 This has been a rough period for C NJ. We have been either fringed or missed altogether from several MCS that tracked through the Mid Atlantic or yesterday's threat dodged us. I know that I could be considered "lucky to have missed the derecho" etc. etc. but I think I am too much of a severe weather nut to think logically like that haha... I am hoping to finally see something good this week / weekend but it was really tough watching that beast of a derecho go south...as we suspected it would days in advance... but it still sucks to watch it materialize. /complaining It is so true. and to really rub salt in the wound, the derecho just had to grow a little more northward than expected at the end there to crush south jersey and tantalize our area a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yeah I saw that too. Might also be a function of that morning deal moving SE from NNE and perhaps clouds screwing things up. As usual, lots of things that can go wrong, but some of the pieces of the puzzle are really nice to look at. You don't see SPC doing day 3 slight risks in SNE often. I think on June 1 2011, they highlighted us 4 days out....potential severe that is. 06z nam would still support a tornado threat in the CT River Valley with MLCAPEs close to 3000 j/kg and 0-2 helicities of 150-250 in the afternoon. But as usual, it may be overzealous with the low to mid-level wind fields. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This has been a rough period for C NJ. We have been either fringed or missed altogether from several MCS that tracked through the Mid Atlantic or yesterday's threat dodged us. I know that I could be considered "lucky to have missed the derecho" etc. etc. but I think I am too much of a severe weather nut to think logically like that haha... I am hoping to finally see something good this week / weekend but it was really tough watching that beast of a derecho go south...as we suspected it would days in advance... but it still sucks to watch it materialize. /complaining I missed it all also in NYC if its any solace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 It is so true. and to really rub salt in the wound, the derecho just had to grow a little more northward than expected at the end there to crush south jersey and tantalize our area a little more. I am glad to have power and all that and really...what good is a derecho at night? It's still tantalizing though! I missed it all also in NYC if its any solace Not really, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 This weekend looks a bit more interesting for the northeast/northern Mid-Atlantic as the cold front moves in the from the northwest hitting a very warm airmass. I am concerned that the Canadian trough is too weak to promote good mid-level height falls/shear/lift ahead of the cold front. As we near this weekend, I am starting to get that sickly feeling that this may not work out quite as classic as I thought last week. I see the +10 h7 temps advect in with the NW flow regime and strong front and s/w. The wind fields just seem so blah at this point. The ECMWF does look decent but not quite a setup for SIG SVR. It's close though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I am glad to have power and all that and really...what good is a derecho at night? It's still tantalizing though! Not really, lol. I missed some huge hail storms yesterday a few miles to my east. Those storms over central and eastern LI were some of the biggest I have seen over that area in years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 As we near this weekend, I am starting to get that sickly feeling that this may not work out quite as classic as I thought last week. I see the +10 h7 temps advect in with the NW flow regime and strong front and s/w. The wind fields just seem so blah at this point. The ECMWF does look decent but not quite a setup for SIG SVR. It's close though... It's been close but no cigar way too many times this svr season lol. The showers/storms on the EC this weekend actually appear anafrontal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I'd say you should be ok, but I'd give it a 20 to maybe 30 chance of a shwr/tstm. Just keep an eye out, because stuff may be scattered about. Thanks bro lots of low cumulus scatterred about, very low dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 small cell popping N of HFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 09z sref improved for severe chances on wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 09z sref improved for severe chances on wednesday. For all of SNE? NH MA CT? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 For all of SNE? NH MA CT? yeah looks like it improved in a lot of spots. Instability ticked upwards by a signficant degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 yeah looks like it improved in a lot of spots. Instability ticked upwards by a signficant degree. Nice! Hopefully it works out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Will be kayaking and hiking Wednesday ... not desiring inclement weather. Shooo! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Im really hoping for some good storms wednesday.. Its dry around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 A Storm just moved south of my area with some clouds and a bit of drizzle, but no thunder/lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New England Storm Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Well I will be at work on the 4th, that means we will see storms (they never hit when I can chase them LOL) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 I hope I can muster some rain at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Dry? Lol. Storm after storm has kept most places green and lush. Moist begets moist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Yup its been very dry since we got 11.40" in june, Hopefully convection stays south of here weds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 Dry? Lol. Storm after storm has kept most places green and lush. Moist begets moist Been pretty dry here the last few weeks. The storms have missed here for the most part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
radarman Posted July 2, 2012 Share Posted July 2, 2012 A couple picturesque single cells moved through in the last 90 minutes. If we had some better instability it could've been fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.